Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors © Christina Lehmann 2014 Phase II Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis Step 10

Credits and conditions of use © Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself. You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). You may not use this work for commercial purposes. If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management logo, and you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar conditions to this one.   This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch and Dr. Peter Hobson, co-directors of the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and Writtle College. Compare: Ibisch, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method: Adaptive MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN 978-3-00-043244-6). 195 pp. - The Powerpoint Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann and Pierre Ibisch. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides. Supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ). 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

Learning objectives Participants are able to explain the use of this step, including the sub-steps a) current criticality, b) past criticality and c) current trend of criticality, in getting an overview of the perceived importance of the single element to inform the prioritisation process. Participants have the skills to guide through the rating process using the relevant criteria and are able to apply the calculation scheme for achieving the final result of the current criticality. 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

Outline What does assessing criticality mean? Why assessing criticality ? How do we assess criticality? Practical Tips ? 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

What does assessing criticality mean? Analysing the different levels of criticality an element (stress, threat, contributing factor) can have Dimensions of space, severity and irreversibility are assessed Taking past and possible future conditions as well as trend of change into consideration Example of the medical doctor and his patient: How many parts of the body are affected? Will the consequences change/ disturb his way of life and always be visible? Will the patient’s situation ever get better? How were his conditions in the past and are they currently changing? © Christina Lehmann 2015 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

Why assessing criticality? To receive a subjective rating and thus an overview of the perceived situation of a biodiversity object by the participants Taking past conditions into account in order to recognise (subtle) changes Possibility to make assumptions about future developments based on first-hand experiences Finding targets for final prioritisation process for strategy development © Christoph Nowicki 2014 © Pierre Ibisch 2014 © Pierre Ibisch 2014 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Approach stresses, threats and contributing factors of conceptual model again Each element is to be rated according to its perceived criticality → provision of best-fit judgement on the status of a biodiversity object Can be done by the core planning team; results are later validated by other experts Single workshop or series of workshops © Christina Lehmann 2014 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? a) Current criticality Evaluation according to 3 descriptors: Scope Severity Irreversibility/ permanence 4 colour-coded rating levels Rating scheme to be printed and put up as poster visible for participants 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Recording the results on MARISCO cards as well as in an Excel spreadsheet for further analysis (recommended) Stress/ Threat/ Contributing factor 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? © Christoph Nowicki 2014 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Rating categories for “Current criticality: scope” 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Rating categories for “Current criticality: severity” Rating categories for “Current criticality: irreversibility” 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Overall criticality is calculated as a combination of all 3 criteria Step 1: Calculating Magnitude as a combination of scope and severity 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Step 2: Calculating the overall criticality as a combination of magnitude and irreversibility 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? In case of insufficient time and resources an “override” assessment instead of a full one is possible: Rating categories for “Current criticality” in override assessment 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? b) Past criticality Comparison of current situation of every stress/ threat/ contributing factor to the situation 20 years ago Revive received wisdom (of participants) and avoid for it to be lost → Avoiding “shifting baseline syndrome” (when people get accustomed to a certain condition that used to be different and changed over time and the new situation is accepted as normal) → Often happens when there is a shift in generations Back then… © Christina Lehmann 2014 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Guiding questions for determination of past criticality Did the element actually exist 20 years ago? If so, how has the criticality changed since then (especially in terms of scope and severity)? Rating categories for “Past criticality” 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? c) Current trend of change Considering dynamic behaviour or current trend of change of a biodiversity object Guiding questions for the determination of the current trend of change: How is the situation of the stress/ threat/ contributing factor changing at this very moment? Is it receiving a lot of public attention? Why? Is the stress/ threat/ contributing factor currently increasing or decreasing? Slowly, and gradually, or exponentially? 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Rating categories for “Current trend of criticality change” 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

How do we assess criticality? Criticality – scope Criticality – severity Criticality – irreversibility Past criticality (20 years ago) Current criticality (>1&2&3) Trend of change (of current criticality) © Christoph Nowicki 2014 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

Practical Tips The assessment will trigger many discussions and the uttering of different opinions → Splitting the participants into several groups who work on elements of different categories separately, might be helpful and time-saving → Doing a few exemplary assessments together is necessary as an introduction © Pierre Ibisch 2014 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors