Multi-parameter ocean model skill assessment: from regional (CMEMS IBI) to coastal scales P. Lorente , M.G. Sotillo , A. Amo-Baladrón, R. Aznar, A. Pascual y E. Álvarez-Fanjul Puertos del Estado, Madrid

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions Objectives: Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems EBRO-DELTA Tools to support decision-making Skill assessment: essential! Showcase one year-long (2014) multi-parameter skill assessment of IBI operational ocean forecasting system. Specific subdomain in the NW Mediterranean: the Ebro Delta. Relevance: In situ & remote-sensing networks 1 harbour and a Marine Protected Area (Ebro Delta)

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 -NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS IBI SYSTEM Iberia Biscay Ireland Based on NEMO 3.4 Daily product (PdE + MO) 5 FC + 1 HC (TMP, SAL, SSH, Currents) Surface: hourly data Resolution 2x2 km Regional system: 19ᵒW-5ᵒE / 26ᵒN-56ᵒN Copernicus Marine Service (April 2011) Buoys network (B1, B2 & B3) Tide Gauges network (TG1, TG2, TG3 & TG4) L3 Satellite-derived product (CMEMS) CODAR Seasonde HF radar

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions NARVAL Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems (OOFSs) Tools to support decision-making Skill assessment: essential! 1.- QUID (QUality Information Document) http://marine.copernicus.eu/documents/QUID/CMEMS-IBI-QUID-005-001.pdf 2.- CMEMS validation website (updated on a quarterly basis): http://marine.copernicus.eu/web/103-validation-statistics.php 3.- Research papers Aznar R., Sotillo M.G., Cailleau S., Lorente P., Levier B., Amo-Baladrón A., Reffray G., Álvarez-Fanjul E.: “Strengths and weaknesses of the Copernicus forecasted and reanalyzed solutions for the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) waters”, Journal of Marine Systems, 159, pp. 1-14, 2016. Sotillo, M.G., Cailleau, S., Lorente, P., Levier, B., Aznar, R., Reffray, G., Amo-Baladrón, A., and Alvarez-Fanjul, E.: “The MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: Operational products and roadmap to the future Copernicus Service”. Journal of Operational Oceanography, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 1-18, 2015. NARVAL North Atlantic Regional VALidation

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions North Atlantic Regional VALlidation • Skill assessment software package + dedicated web application • Routinely monitor IBI performance (strengths and weaknesses) • Real-time & delayed-mode validations • REGIONALIZATION (IBI area + 10 subdomains) • INTERCOMPARACION (overlapping areas) • DOWNSCALLING (SAMPA & SAMOAs)

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-1 METRICS: 2D daily fields bilinearly interpolated into a common ore refined horizontal grid for the same geographic location • SST:

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-1 METRICS: CurrentS SPRING 2014

Georeferenced web interface 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-2 METRICS: comparison of model outputs with quality-controlled time series of in-situ observations at specific locations DDBB: long-term storage Georeferenced web interface Calendar web access: SKILL METRICS

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-2 METRICS: SUMMARY

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • QUALITATIVE COMPARISONS: TRANSECTS SW North current Coastal reversals Reversals

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • QUALITATIVE COMPARISONS: RELATIVE VORTICITY   • Belt of positive vorticity • Coastal CW eddy (Negative vorticity) • By summer, the eddy dissapears - Change in predominat wind regime - Reduction in freshwater discharge

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • DOWNSCALLING IN NARVAL: SAMPA & SAMOA (PRE-OPERATIONAL!)

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • NARVAL: Extensive validation of IBI forecasting system • Inherent constraints: sensor limitations, instrumental noise, differences in depth sampling, small-scale energetic processes unresolved by the model, etc. • IBI: regional "father" system used in dowscaling approaches by providing coherent OBCs to nested high-resolution coastal models. • Model intercomparison: IBI versus SAMPA / SAMOAs • NARVAL: ready to verify added value of downscaling approaches in coastal areas • Not only SAMPA & SAMOA in Ebro Delta: - Barcelona - Bilbao - Ferrol - Las Palmas - Tenerife - Etc… • Advent of new data sources: SMOS, drifters, gliders, etc…

1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions New Biogeochemical (BGQ) module integrated in NARVAL! Short-term future: Waves (WAV) module will be implemented! Clicking the button...

THIS PRESENTATION IS BASED ON THE FOLLOWING PAPER: 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions THIS PRESENTATION IS BASED ON THE FOLLOWING PAPER: Lorente P., Piedracoba S., Sotillo M.G., Aznar R., Amo-Balandron A., Pascual A., Soto-Navarro J., Alvarez-Fanjul E. “Ocean model skill assessment in the NW Mediterranean using multi-sensor data”. Journal of Operational Oceanography. Accepted (July 2016). Doi: 10.1080/1755876X.2016.1215224 END THANKS!