Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin Advanced Computational Modeling of Social Systems Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) http://www.icr.ethz.ch/teaching/compmodels
Presentations 07.06.2005 III 14.06.2005 III 21.06.2005 III Nicolas Bürkler (4) Thomas Fent Stephan Gammeter (2) Jean-Luc Geering (1) Jeremy Hackney (2) Lutz Krebs (4) Benjamin Lutz (1) Charles Mitchell (3) Gloria Müller (3) Carsten Murawski (1) Jonas Nart (3) Nils Weidmann (2)
Positive feedback Brian W. Arthur: “Positive feedbacks in the economy” Scientific American (Feb. 1990)
Artificial Economies Epstein & Axtell 1996. Growing Artificial Societies. MIT Press. Epstein & Axtell
Average equilibrium characteristics
Price convergence
Price convergence
The Santa Fe Artificial Stock Simplistic stock market simulation Isolates learning speed of traders as critical parameter N traders 1 unit risky stock, 20 000 units cash Each trader seeks to buy or sell stock based on expectations of profit Only one ‘stock’ in market Genetic algorithm used for rule evolution -> Faster learners exploit slower learners
The Santa Fe Artificial Stock
The Trade Network Game (TNG) Evolution of trade networks among strategically interacting traders Buyers, sellers, dealers Traders instantiated as “tradebots” Communication between tradebots to determine their trade partners Tradebots evolve trade strategies
The Trade Network Game (TNG)
Java Auction Simulator (JASA)