Data Analysis in the Australian Football League SSAI – Victorian Branch Meeting November 2011 Karl Jackson

MY PATH University of Queensland, Brisbane (2002 – 2006) Bachelor of Science Statistics (via Education, Physics & Pure Maths) Honours in Statistics (Extreme Value Theory) Swinburne University of Technology (2007 – ) PhD (Statistics) Player Ratings – Who was best on ground? Champion Data Part-time (2007 – 2009) Full-time (2010 – ) 19/09/2018

OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game Three Phases 19/09/2018

CHAMPION DATA AFL, Netball Provider of high performance services to elite sport Data Analysis Research and Development Vision Services Graphics Integration (TV Broadcasts) AFL, Netball Cricket, Soccer, Rugby Union, Rugby League, … 19/09/2018

CHAMPION DATA Established 1995 Official AFL Statisticians 1998 – Official ANZ Netball Statisticians 2009 – 19/09/2018

CHAMPION DATA Clients Australian Football League AFL Clubs TV Live Match Day Broadcasts Weekday Studio Productions Print Media Websites Live Scoring Stats Tables Fantasy Football Mobile Applications 19/09/2018

Supply the industry with data & analysis CHAMPION DATA Supply the industry with data & analysis Clubs & Media Tell the story of the game Who won and why Heroes & villains Tactics, strengths & weaknesses Monitor game & club trends 19/09/2018

OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game Three Phases 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 10 Person Capture Crew At Ground In Office Main Caller Keyboarder Support Back-up Caller Interchange Positional Match-ups Pressure Caller Spotter Pressure Keyboarder 19/09/2018

AFL DATA Match Level Chain Level Transaction Level Date, Venue, Clubs, Result Chain Level Start Type, End Type, Launch/Guilty Player Transaction Level Time, Margin, Event Type, Player, Opponent, Location Extra Info (Where applicable) Kicks: Intent, Distance, Direction, Foot Disposals: Pressure (Applied & Received) Free Kicks: Reason, Context Inside 50s: Type, Target Scores: Context, Source, Shot Type 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 19/09/2018

AFL DATA 19/09/2018

OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game Three Phases 19/09/2018

DATA ANALYSIS Motivation Clubs – Controllable Factors Game Styles Trends Strengths & Weaknesses Media – Headlines Trivia Stories General Public Fantasy Club Bias Gambling 19/09/2018

DATA ANALYSIS Challenges Relevance v Significance Empirical Data Analysis Little to no Prediction/Modelling Knowledge of Data Eg. Possessions v Disposals 19/09/2018

OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game Three Phases 19/09/2018

STATE OF THE GAME The Sub Rule – Motivation The Sub Rule – “Impact” Reduce congestion Reduce collision injuries by slowing the game Increase fairness after injury Control interchange numbers The Sub Rule – “Impact” Increased Clearance Rates Increased Player Fatigue Return of: Long Kicking Contested Marking Increased Scoring 19/09/2018

STATE OF THE GAME 19/09/2018

STATE OF THE GAME 19/09/2018

STATE OF THE GAME 19/09/2018

STATE OF THE GAME “Increased Scoring” Spread of Good vs Bad 186 points per match in 2011 Last three years: 197, 182, 181 Spread of Good vs Bad Season ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01 ’00 > 130% 5 2 1 < 70% 19/09/2018

OUTLINE Champion Data AFL Data Data Analysis State of the Game Three Phases 19/09/2018

3 PHASES Contest – Winning the ball Offence – Using the ball Contested Possessions Offence – Using the ball Advanced Kicking Defence – Winning the ball back Pressure 19/09/2018

3 PHASES 19/09/2018

3 PHASES Advanced Kicking 𝑅 𝑖 = 𝐻 𝑖 −𝔼 𝐻; 𝜽 𝑖 H = Hit Rate ∈ 0,1 Take into account “difficulty” of each kick Each kick measured on whether it hit its target ELO-like rating system 𝑅 𝑖 = 𝐻 𝑖 −𝔼 𝐻; 𝜽 𝑖 H = Hit Rate ∈ 0,1 i = 1,2,3,…,n 𝑅= 𝑤 𝑖 𝑅 𝑖 𝑤 𝑖 𝜽 = Direction, Distance, Intent, Location, Pressure 19/09/2018

3 PHASES 19/09/2018

3 PHASES Top 10 Kick Ratings (100+ Kicks) Barry Hall Western Bulldogs +16.0% Matthew Scarlett Geelong Cats +11.2% Matthew Jaensch Adelaide Crows +10.1% Robert Murphy Western Bulldogs +9.9% Adam Schneider St Kilda +9.6% Brendon Goddard St Kilda +9.1% Chris Newman Richmond +8.8% Jared Rivers Melbourne +8.8% David Rodan Port Adelaide +8.4% Chris Yarran Carlton +8.4% 19/09/2018

3 PHASES Bottom 10 Kick Ratings (100+ Kicks) Liam Jones Western Bulldogs -12.5% Andrew Raines Brisbane Lions -11.1% Josh Kennedy Sydney Swans -10.5% Liam Picken Western Bulldogs -9.5% Nathan Fyfe Fremantle -9.4% Jake Melksham Essendon -9.3% Lindsay Thomas North Melbourne -9.2% David Hille Essendon -9.0% Zachary Smith Gold Coast Suns -8.5% Clinton Jones St Kilda -8.3% 19/09/2018

3 PHASES Pressure 𝑃𝐹= 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑛 Set Position No Pressure 𝑃𝐹= 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑛 Set Position No Pressure Implied Pressure Physical Pressure K:H 5.29 1.48 0.98 0.39 Kick Eff 77.7% 72.4% 57.2% 26.9% Hand Eff 98.0% 94.6% 85.2% 58.6% Eff Disp Rate 80.9% 81.4% 69.8% 28.4% Value 0.75 1.00 1.79 3.75 19/09/2018

3 PHASES 19/09/2018

3 PHASES Of 196 matches in 2011, 71 teams won all three phases Win % (# Matches) Contest Kicking Pressure 68.8% (132/192) 91.3% (94/103) 84.9% (90/106) 74.0% (145/196) 83.7% (108/129) 69.4% (136/196) Of 196 matches in 2011, 71 teams won all three phases 70 won the match (98.6%) 19/09/2018