Sustaining the Globcolour/Medspiration legacy into the next decade Craig Donlon GHRSST-PP International Project Office

L2P and L4 SST data products NOPP/USA AustraliaJapan Regional Data Assembly Centres (RDAC) NAVONCDCESA/EU Met OfficeRSS PO.DAAC EUMETSATOSPD The GHRSST-PP Regional/Global Task Sharing Framework (R/GTS) User Access and Feedback Long Term Stewardship and Re-analysis Facility (LTSRF) Perpetual Archive SST CDR production Perpetual Archive Data ingest Data access Delayed mode L4 SST CDR products Global Data Analysis Centre (GDAC) Rolling Archive Data Ingest Data Access Data Tools User Services MMR System GMES/European GDAC Mirror

The role of Medspiration… The Medspiration service is essential for GHRSST-PP Medspiration was determined by the international GHRSST-PP ST as a federated user community –led the way to what is now a successful international project. –In turn, led to the definition of the Sentinel SST component. Medspiration has already developed and runs an operational service for SST but for how long? Products at GDAC and LTSRF and many user driven applications all over the world GHRSST-PP Science Team requests ESA to maintain the continuity of Medspiration L2P services through to Sentinel III GHRSST-PP Science Team requests ESA to maintain and develop the MDB, HR-DDS and EU-GDAC functionality together with the European Commission under the FP7 MCS GHRSST-PP Science Team requests ESA to consider ways to improve SSES for EU sensors GHRSST-PP Science Team requests ESA to support the EU component of a GHRSST-PP re-analysis effort

L2P and L4 SST data products NOPP/USA AustraliaJapan Regional Data Assembly Centres (RDAC) NAVONCDCESA/EU Met OfficeRSS PO.DAAC EUMETSATOSPD The GHRSST-PP Regional/Global Task Sharing Framework (R/GTS) User Access and Feedback Long Term Stewardship and Re-analysis Facility (LTSRF) Perpetual Archive SST CDR production Perpetual Archive Data ingest Data access Delayed mode L4 SST CDR products Global Data Analysis Centre (GDAC) Rolling Archive Data Ingest Data Access Data Tools User Services MMR System GMES/European GDAC Mirror

Sustainability: GHRSST-PP -> GHRSST Move from GHRSST-PP to GHRSST –Phase-I: An International project tasked to develop and implement a distributed system to deliver integrated high resolution SST and Sea Ice (SI) data products in a sustainable manner (Complete) –-> Medspiration –Phase-II: Develop a sustained R/GTS system for SST&SI and Manage the ongoing evaluation and evolution of the system (Underway) –-> MCS/Sentinel-III –Phase-III: Deliver SST & SI Climate Data Records (CDR) in support of WCRP, GOOS and GCOS climate objectives (just started) –-> DUE Million

European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2040s 2060s Temperature anomaly (wrt ) °C July mean 2006 CET 3.7 C above reference 2006? x [30-50N, 10W-40E] (i.e. Mediterranean Basin & Southern-Central Europe) land air temperatures for summer (JJA)

Ranked July Surface temperature anomalies The main plot shows the fifty warmest Julys. The inset shows the whole series. The size of the coloured bars indicates the 95% confidence interval. It is therefore virtually certain that over this region, July 2006 was the warmest July in the record. July land surface air temperature anomalies in rank order for Europe region 10°W-30°E, 35°N-75°N.

UK plant behaviour at odds with the time of year. Some plants have flowered for a second time in the mild weather this year. Kew Gardens own climate studies show that winters have become later over the past 30 years…

To improve seasonal to decadal monitoring and forecasting of weather and climate impacts using high- resolution integrated earth observation data sets.

Impact of better seasonal prediction Climate dynamics and extreme events Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil, 26 March The first hurricane recorded in the South Atlantic. Correlates with Hadley Centre climate model predictions for of tropical storm genesis area relative to

Impact of high resolution SST on climate modelling Impact of coupled high- res ocean models High res ocean agrees best with Observatiuons Earth Simulator (M Roberts, Hadley Centre)

End user community Aviation Roads and railways Hospitals Energy Leisure Commercial Marine Independent Media Retail Insurance Construction

Intermediate users Seasonal weather/climate forecasting teams/models Climate monitoring groups Research and development community Climate impact consultancies ECMWF ERA70

MedpiringColourTACGDAC Overwhelming international request to maintain and sustain the Medspiration service International R&D + Operational users are now depending on Medspiration Need to transition into the MCS sensibly Need to consolidate HR-DDS activities with GlobColour (Chl-a, K490, aerosol, HR-DDS, combined single Format…) GDAC & LTSRF are open systems and should be used by GlobColour (at least as a template) When you need SST – use GHRSST-PP! When we need colour we use GlobColour!

Ken JFP

You will be the people doing it…

International GHRSST-PP Project Office Met Office, Fitzroy Road Exeter, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Web:

Options… L2P production in the EU MDB HR-DDS Error stats and SSES Rolling Store & dissemination service User Application Services (Helpdesk, feedback) L4 global analysis L4 regional analysis Delayed mode (3-5 day delay update data) Reanalysis project (20+ year data set – out of scope?) Build on existing capability and focus on real time exchange in an mutually beneficial philosophy of operational backup as in NWP

MCS SST GDAC (TAC)