World Population Trends

Population Rates of Change It took thousands of years for the population of the planet to reach 1 billion (1830s) It took only 100 years to reach 2 billion It took 30 years to reach 3 billion It took 12.5 years to reach 4 billion Now, world population rates are declining

Why are rates declining? Women having fewer children Population is aging This is the trend in both the developed world (North America, Europe, Japan, Australia, new Zealand), and the developing world

Effects on the developed world: fewer and fewer people to pay for the increasing pension and health care needs of the aging population slower economic growth over the next 50 years

The Developing World: Ninety-five percent of the world’s population growth is happening in these countries About half of the population is under the age of 15 There is little health care and education There is more access to birth control and women are assuming more power = smaller families

Fertility Rates (Children per Family) World Statistics Map Key Color Fertility rate Long-term impact Red less than 2 declining population Yellow about 2 stable population Green 3 to 4 growing population Blue 4 or more rapidly growing population Gray data not available

Trends in Developed Nations The only country that is replacing itself through high immigration and fertility is the US Japan and many European countries will have to allow in a large number of immigrants to keep their population constant In Germany, Italy, Sweden, deaths now outnumber births

The Story in Canada The fertility rate is expected to drop from 1.54 to 1.48 births per woman in the next five years Only the Northwest Territories and Nunavut show birth rates above the replacement level

Should Wealthy Nations Open Their Doors to Those From Poor Nations to Help Eliminate Economic Inequality In The World? Read the case study on page 177 and answer questions 1 and 2 on page 178

What is per capita income What is per capita income? How can the fertility rate of a country affect its per capita income? 2. In two columns generate a list of arguments in support of and against the idea that wealthy nations should accept more immigrants from poor nations

Why has there been such a change in fertility rates around the world? These factors can be explored in two broad categories: A. physical and environmental factors and B. socio-cultural factors

Physical and Environmental Factors and Fertility Infertility = when couples cannot conceive after trying for one year In Canada 1 in 5 couples are infertile WHY?

Why are people more infertile? rapid spread of STDs, especially chlamydia decline in sperm counts in men (developed countries): half of what they were 6 years ago, declining 2% per year -high levels of estrogen in water, from oral contraceptives finding their way into the water -by-products of chemicals in food packaging and plastics mimic the action of female sex hormones, raising the level of estrogen in men

women are delaying motherhood -more than 1/3 of all babies born in Canada today are born to women in their thirties -women’s fertility rates decline with age -late motherhood means fewer reproductive years

Section 6.2 The Relationship Between Fecundity and Culture Fecundity = the ability to reproduce The ability to have a child is determined by physical and environmental factors. Social and Cultural factors influence: -the desire to have a baby -the number of children desired -the way of giving birth -ideas about child raising

Fertility and Cultural Norms Understanding the causes of fertility vary from culture to culture: Use of proximate determinants = biological and behavioural factors through which social, economic, and environmental variables affect fertility If a proximate determinant changes (ie. contraceptive use) then fertility changes too

John Bongaarts and Robert Potter: Analysis of Proximate Determinants They compared the cultural norms of: Developed societies Developing societies Hutterites.

Hutterites: -highest fertility rates -members of an Anabaptist sect in the northern United States and Canada -they live in small self-contained communities with strict social and religious control

Bongaarts and Potter’s findings Western World Developing World Hutterites Fertility rates Declining Declining, but not as dramatically Highest fertility rate of any population # children 2 7 ? (Higher than 7) Marriage (women) Early 20s Teens First child Years 3 After marriage Birth interval 2-3 Breast-feeding -not everyone -short period Prolonged more frequent breast feeding Short period of breastfeeding End of fertility Contraception/surgery Breastfeeding and menopause Ban on contraception

Bongarrts and Potter’s Conclusions Cultural norms are affected by: -age of first menstruation -age at marriage -frequency of intercourse -length of breast-feeding -use and effectiveness of contraception -onset of permanent sterility

Links Between Breast-feeding and Fecundity Developed World: -we are expected to be independent -babies sleep alone -play alone a lot -breast-fed for only a few months -many people only get six-eight weeks maternity leave in the US

Breastfeeding facts: -breast milk is perfectly designed for babies, and is the best thing for them -70% of Canadian women initiate breast- feeding -40% stop after three months -rates are higher among older and higher educated and paid mothers -work is the main reason for stopping -Ontario: January 2001 maternity leave 12 months

How does breast-feeding affect fecundity? When done “on demand”, breast-feeding has a contraceptive effect as the Prolactin produced reduces ovulation Developing countries: “on demand” feeding, and weaning done between 2 ½ and 4 years = births spaced every 4 to 5 years U.S.: low breast-feeding rates, and successive births in quick succession

Recommendations: -In Canada: nurse exclusively for the first four months, then with other foods for 2 years+ -World Health Organization: nurse exclusively for six months, then up to 2 years+

45 (breastfeeding on demand) Age of Menarche Foraging Societies Developed Countries Less protein, more low-calorie proteins, with no dairy products or processed grains Food High fat, high protein, high calorie diet Lots of walking carrying heavy loads Exercise Little physical stress from exercise etc. 16-18 years Menarche 12-13 45 (breastfeeding on demand) Menopause 50-55 150 Ovulations 450 Delayed Successive births delayed Children First child’s birth delayed, Successive births shortly after

Influence of Age at Marriage The younger one marries, the more fertile years during which to produce children Therefore, if the average age of marriage in a country increases, the fertility rate may decrease

Government Intervention in Fertility Cultural norms related to fertility are not only shaped by parents and family, they can also be moulded by government policies and programs Examples: Russia: banning abortion, taxing the childless China: one-couple, one-child policy Quebec: cash bonus for children (dropped) Family planning programs: Canada, Bangladesh

Marriage and Family Trends in Different Cultures Overt = open attitudes/influences Covert = implied attitudes/influences Read the case study on page 187-189 and answer the questions at the end.

Re-cap Section 6.1: world population is declining in Canada only the NWT and Nunavut show birth rates above the replacement level a couple is considered infertile after a year of unsuccessfully trying to conceive physical and environmental factors, and socio-cultural factors contribute to infertility Delaying childbirth may not be a good idea

Re-Cap Section 6.2 Proximate determinants of fertility are the biological and behavioural factors through which social, economic, and environmental variables affect fertility Diet, amount of exercise, and the length and frequency of breast feeding affect fecundity age of marriage, government intervention, and family trends affect fertility rates Culture influences fertility and fecundity