China Environment Forum ChokePoint US: Understanding the Tightening Conflict between Energy and Water in the Era of Climate Change Wednesday, September 22, 2010, 9:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. J. Carl Ganter Circle of Blue Keith Schneider Circle of Blue Welcome from Jennifer Turner. Carl: Thank the Wilson Center, and especially the China Environment Forum and Environmental Change and Security Program for hosting this morning. And Jennifer Turner, Peter Marsters and Geoff Dabelko, and their teams. Jeffrey J. Fulgham General Electric Jennifer Turner Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

40 years ago, we as a society began to think about the competition between resources and development. And 8 years ago the Environmental Change and Security Program began a water project called Navigating Peace. It was all about seeking connections… and to look at water from new perspectives. We traveled to Mexico, some to China, others to Africa. We wondered… where would we be in the 21st century? Here we are, at that nexus point. And with epic choices. Today we'll hear about one of these competitions -- the challenge between water and energy. Keith Schneider will explore our reporting and what's happening now… in the US. And Jeff Fulgham, of General Electric, knows many sides of the equation. And is one of many in business, policy and research looking for better ways to define the 21st century. Before we start with Keith and Jeff, let's take a quick look at what we're finding in different parts of the globe. At Circle of Blue, we use journalism, science, data and design to explore these issues. We use world-leading journalists on the front lines. We like to get dirty… gather the facts, research and knowledge to find out what's happening now -- what's working, what's not. We match that storytelling with science and new ways to look at data to explore deeper. This way we can see the trends, find the connections. We work with designers around the globe in graphic and process design to communicate the findings. Finally, we do what we're doing today -- bring people together to explore the challenges and search for solutions.

For example... In Mexico's Tehuacan Valley, we're finding people like Francisca Rosa Valencia… whose families are leaving because there isn’t enough water to grow their traditional crops of maize... or corn. We’re also finding some hope in an ancient grain called amaranth.

Not far from Francisca’s home, we found these farmers Not far from Francisca’s home, we found these farmers. For the first time in their recorded history, they are paying for water because their wells are running dry. Water means they can’t afford to farm.

In Australia we find people like Gilbert Bain on his combine In Australia we find people like Gilbert Bain on his combine. He’s trying to grow wheat on a former rice paddy. Water -- or lack thereof -- means a whole shift to how the world grows its food.

A whole region - the Murray-Darling Basin - is drying up A whole region - the Murray-Darling Basin - is drying up... suicide rates are double than anywhere else in the country. Farmers and Aboriginals. There are programs now to help farmers in despair, especially the men. And the largest re-plumbing program on the planet is underway.

Then there’s this herder in Inner Mongolia Then there’s this herder in Inner Mongolia. His grazing land is blowing away - toward Beijing even reaching Los Angeles.

In Yunnan China we found scientists working hard to help people like this farmer whose topsoil, and water, is washing away into deep underground caverns.

And this is the roof of the world. These are melting glaciers And this is the roof of the world. These are melting glaciers. This is water. This is climate change. This is water security for the billion or so people downstream.

... and the infrastructure for supplying drinking water is similarly inadequate in most of the world’s megacities. Here families wait for hours in Delhi for a trickle of water...

We went into the sewers of London to learn about the old (here the Victorian sewers) and the new massive infrastructure projects that will handle the city’s freshwater and waste water. We won’t talk much about sanitation, the “other half” of water that’s just as important.

Here’s the All American Canal in the US Here’s the All American Canal in the US. It transfers water from the Colorado to the Imperial Valley - enough to irrigate 1/2 million acres.

Speaking of... according to the GAO, 39 states will face a water crisis within the next five years or so.

We also look at data and polling We also look at data and polling. Last fall with GlobeScan we polled people in 15 countries to learn their environmental priorities. Water topped the list of concerns filling the top two slots (scarcity and pollution) while concern about climate change was in 6th place. That leaves us with the message that people connect with climate through water.

In our survey were people like Norm Nivers who say they want more information. Here, Norm sits on the shores of the Salton Sea in Calif. where he says he’s waiting for the water to come back. And he’s waiting for 5p when he has his daily martini. Make that a _dry_ martini.

We also work with new data tools We also work with new data tools. Here’s one we’ve worked with Google Labs -- it’s called Fusion Tables and allows us to pull in large data sets. Here we’ve mapped the locations of the nation’s coal and nuclear thermoelectric plants, and included water use down to the county level.

... and more details coming soon.

Nearly all sectors of the economy will need to transform over the next decade as a result of water shortages This spring we published the SustainAbility GlobeScan poll which found this.

Here are the sectors affected. Anyone not included?

So let’s go to Keith Schneider, who is going to share the results of our latest reporting… on water and energy. Choke Point US

Choke Point: U.S. Circle of Blue’s goal: Understand whether transition to clean energy economy will produce a penalty or dividend for water consumption in U.S. WE FOUND MORE MUCH MORE. STORY Nov. 2009 -- Fast-tracking solar development

SOLAR THERMAL - thermo uses TWO TO THREE TIMES more water IF CONVENTIONALLY COOLED Nov 2009: Interior 23 million acres six states and fast track 180 proposals Jon Jarvis, Pacific Region director warns about water use 53 gigawatt -- CRS 164 billion gallons of water

410 Billion Gallons A FEW BASIC NUMBERS Water withdrawn daily from the united states - about half is withdrawn to cool thermoelectric plants -

< Energy Demand > Water Supply Collisions that are emerging between these two > Water Supply

200 Billion Gallons HALF withdrawn to cool power plants which is...

equivalent the amount of water that goes over niagara falls in 5 months

40 by 2050 At the same time we’re going to increase our energy demand by 40% by 2050. To meet this goal means 400 gigawatts to electrical power production, which means adding 400 million tons a year in coal production, which means oil consumption to 10 billion barrels a year from 7.

Principle: Production First The rub for the nation is that if we pursue that level of energy demand with 20th century values: CONSEQUENCES ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE HIGH

Do we really want to know? But do we want to know? DOE Withholding National Energy Water roadmap.

Findings: Regardless -- here is what we found:

The transition to clean energy economy, unless really careful, will produce a water penalty Biofuels - corn uses up to 650 more times water - soybeans up to 1000 times and all available alternatives use 3-4 times more water. Only wind and solar PV use less water than traditional energy sources.

Colorado River Less water from snowmelt Hoover dam down 33 percent 5.5 billion killowatt hours of power 1999 3.7 billion hours last year. 135 feet decrease in elevation, since 1999 25 feet fromshutting down turbines Hydroelectric generation - less water means less power

BIG NEW FINDING -- Unconventional reserves replacing conventional reserves. More than half of the nation’s natural gas comes from carbon rich shales. The deep ones involve 3 - 5 million gallons of water to extract the natural gas.

Oil shales -- North Dakota 100 million barrels $7 billion for 1,000 wells water conflicts

Tar Sands - 1.1 Barrels per day to US HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS GALLONS WATER WITHDRAWN PRODUCTION INCREASE 10 PERCENT ANNUALLY

INFRASTUCTURE $20 BILLION FOR REFINERIES $30 BILLION FOR PIPELINES INCUDING ONE THAT WATER USE LAND YUSE CO2 EMISSIONS

FRACKING -- 3 TO 7 MILLION BARRELS TO PRODUCE

WHERE ARE WE GOING. 40 PERCENT INCREASE IN ENERGY PRODUCTION WHERE ARE WE GOING? 40 PERCENT INCREASE IN ENERGY PRODUCTION. EFFECTS ON RESOURCES. WHO WINS? IN KERN COUNTY, FARMERS CUT BACK, OIL PRODUCERS GAIN ACCESS TO EVERY GALLON WANTED

Evaporation ponds, water pollution.

Coal: 32 NEW PLANTS SINCE 2008, 17.9 GIGS, BIGGEST INCREASE IN COAL-BURNING POWER PLANTS IN GENERATION, 125 million more tons of C)2, billions of gallons CCS TECHNOLOGY USES 40 TO 90 PERCENT MORE WATER

40 | 400 | 2050 BIG NUMBERS, CAN WE GET THERE? WHAT ARE THE COSTS?

www.circleofblue.org