India: Economic Overview FIN 680V/ FIN 360 P.V. Viswanath September 2015

India at Independence The economy was overwhelmingly agricultural – 85% of the population employed in agriculture using low productivity techniques Still the country was not self-sufficient in foodstuffs. Illiteracy was high at 84%. Mass communicable diseases were widespread and mortality rates were very high (27 per ‘000).

Economic History: 1950-1990 Post-independence India had a mixed economy, i.e. including both private and public sectors. The reasons for a strong public sector were: Great inequality in income distribution – doubts as to the viability of laissez-faire – would there be sufficient savings to invest in growth? Free trade would probably have led to exploitation by stronger foreign countries Exports were seen as a drain of resources from the country.

Post-independence economy Foreign Investment was seen as foreign domination. The quickest path to economic development was seen to be rapid industrialization, which would probably not happen without government intervention Capital goods and heavy industry were seen as particularly needed. Planning was needed to ensure industrial growth and the concomitant agricultural and service growth, as well as employment growth

Objectives The broad objectives were: Rapid growth in production with a view to achieving a higher level of national and per-capita income. Full employment Reduction of inequalities in income and wealth Socialistic pattern of society with a democratic framework, based on equality and justice and absence of exploitation.

Policy Measures for Industrial Development Trade and Regulatory Regimes designed to shield industrial producers from competition High tariffs Industrial licensing of production and investment Monopoly and Restrictive Trade Practices (MRTP) Act Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) Export Restrictions

Industrial Policy Directed allocation of subsidized credit through the commercial and developmental banking system Administered interest rates and financial institutions required to lend for specific purposes at the administered rates. Fixed, overvalued exchange rates; this ensured cheap imports for the government.

Industrial & Agricultural Policy Price control for many products Rigid labor laws that made it difficult to lay off workers. Direct public investment in industrial activities. Management of the agricultural sector to ensure reasonable supplies of food grains, edible oils, sugar and cotton to the domestic market.

Agricultural Policy Procurement prices were fixed, which, in times of surplus, worked as a minimum support price. At times of deficit, the government mandatorily procured a part of the grain at the procurement price and distributed it to poorer people through ration shops. Fertilizer, irrigation, power and credit were subsidized for the agricultural sector.

Agricultural and Fiscal Policy The need to procure grain meant that trade restrictions were imposed. Quantitative restrictions on exports and imports, through licensing Canalization – the use of a single parastatal for imports and exports; the use of minimum export prices. High income tax rates to discourage imports and to finance government activities.

Social Policies Higher education was emphasized (IITs and IIMs) Growth-oriented strategy as a means of mitigating poverty and unemployment. However, structural inequalities in land ownership, availability of water, access to credit etc. led to growth without income and employment growth for poorer people.

Social Policies Land reform; however, it required the cooperation of the states, which was not always forthcoming for political reasons. Alleviation of poverty through special programs and policies, such as asset creation programs, employment generation programs, minimum needs programs. Intervention programs to solve the problems of malnutrition and hunger. Asset generation programs are focused not just on providing consumption, but on creating assets, such as roads

Did the policies work? Industry Industry grew 6% p.a. between 1951 and 1989 There was little competition; hence there was little R&D. The capital-input ratio went up considerably; total factor productivity dropped. Capacity utilization fell. Deeply entrenched interest groups. Same issue as in China; question of optimal use of resources.

Agricultural Progress Between 1950 and 1980, food grain production increased by 2.8% p.a., due primarily to productivity gains and multiple cropping. But, investment growth slowed. R&D suffered, development of irrigation lagged behind plan targets. There was a substantial rise in subsidies for food and fertilizer and for credit, water and electricity. India became more or less self-reliant, but at great cost.

Social Progress From 1970-88, the proportion of population below poverty dropped from 46.17% to 37.76% in urban areas and from 58.75% to 48.69% in rural areas. Average life expectancy improved from 32.1 in 1950-51 to 58.7 in 1990-91. The death rate dropped from 27.4 to 12.5 during the same period. Literacy was 52.2% in 1990-91 compared to 18.33% in 1950-51. But compared to other developing countries, this was not good.

Poverty The 2011 Socioeconomic Caste Census concluded that: 30.9 per cent of the rural population and 26.4 per cent of the urban population were below the poverty line in 2011-12. The all-India ratio was 29.5 per cent. Based on the analysis presented in the expert group report, monthly per capita consumption expenditure of Rs. 972 in rural areas and Rs. 1,407 in urban areas is considered to be the poverty line at the all-India level.

The crisis and the change A massive rise in the government deficit spilled over to the current account deficit because it was financed by external debt. Growth of public spending through the 1980s increased the budget deficit as a proportion of GNP, rising from 6.4% to 9%. External public sector debt as a % of GNP increased during the 1980s to 21% in 1987-88.

Foreign Exchange Crisis Debt service as a proportion of exports increased more than threefold from 10% in 1980-81 to 27% in 1986-87 (Joshi/Little, 1994) External shocks, such as increased oil prices, decreased access to concessionary loans from abroad Structural rigidities in the Indian economy made Indian products non-competitive, globally.

The solution A twofold solution: Effects: Make the economic structure more competitive Contain the government deficit Effects: Structural Change and Fiscal stabilization.

Initial Reforms Trade policy reforms have done away with most quantitative restrictions and reduced tariff levels Industrial policy has removed barriers to entry and limits on growth in the size of firms Regimes for foreign investment and foreign technology have been liberalized considerably Domestic tax structure has been rationalized. The financial sector is being deregulated.

Second-generation reforms Privatization of public sector undertakings Very slow, but steady. BHEL Exit policy for labor Reforms of the agricultural sector Reforms of the state governments

Results GDP Growth, of course, has been very positive, except for the recent deceleration. The economy has become more open: exports plus imports of goods and services jumped from 22.9% of GDP in 1991-2000 to 49.8% in 2009-11, but it dropped to 37.6 in 2010-2014.

Real GDP Growth Rates

FDI Flows into India 2015 data for Apr-Jan

GDP from 50-51 to 2008-9

GDP from 65-66 to 2013-14

GDP: Post Liberalization

Industrial Production

Recent Industrial Production

Growth in Industrial Production Atul Kohli, “Politics of Economic Growth in India, 1980-2005,” Economic and Political Weekly, April 2006, pp. 1251-1259 and 1361-1370

Poverty in India

Changes post-1991 Disparity in growth across states Move towards service sector Lack of sufficient industrial growth Greater Income inequalities High poverty in the rural sector – farmer suicides Continued casteism, gender inequality, communal unrest

Per Capita Income – by State

Per Capita Income – by State

Benefits of Capital Account Convertibility to stimulate economic growth through higher investment by minimizing the cost of both equity and debt capital; to improve the efficiency of the financial sector through greater competition, thereby minimizing intermediation costs and to provide opportunities for diversification of investments by residents.

Capital Account Convertibility CAC based on the theory that capital will flow from high capital-endowment countries to low capital-endowment countries, from low-return-to-capital countries to high-return-to-capital countries. But CAC often led to movement of capital from developing countries to developed countries. One reason is information asymmetry problems in developing countries combined with contract enforcement difficulties. Capital flows can be volatile.

Capital Account Convertibility Currently in India, the rupee is fully convertible for current account transactions. Capital account transactions are transactions that alter the assets or liabilities outside India of an Indian or inside India of a non-Indian, i.e. that convert local financial assets into foreign financial assets – for such transactions, convertibility is limited.

Capital Account Convertibility State governments are not allowed to directly access any form of external borrowing Banks are not allowed to borrow abroad; however, Indian companies are allowed ECBs (external company borrowings). Foreigners are allowed to invest in India only in certain sectors and subject to certain limits.

Capital Account Convertibility: Examples In insurance, they are not allowed to operate directly, but they can have a joint venture with up to a 26% equity interest. Foreign investment is not permitted in the retail sector with certain restrictions. 100% FDI is permitted for wholesale cash and carry trading and trading for exports 51% FDI permitted for Single Brand product retailing

BSE Sensex Prices

CNX Nifty Prices