Corn Slumps on Sowing Surge Update on Cash Crops: Corn Slumps on Sowing Surge Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 8, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 93.6 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 168.0 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 14,378 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,837 Imports 160 36 32 50 40 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,382 16,255 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,324 5,300 5,425 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,225 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,360 1,370 1,375 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,650 1,700 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,545 13,725 Ending Stocks 2,530 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.60 ?.?? Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 82.2 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 46.7 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,929 3,796 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 460 Imports 41 72 33 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,150 4,286 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,870 1,900 Seed & Residual 105 107 145 130 125 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 1,690 1,825 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,690 3,850 Ending Stocks 436 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.75 ?.?? Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports 3 3

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 55.3 56.2 56.8 54.6 49.6 Yield (bu./acre) 46.2 47.1 43.7 43.6 45.9 Production (mil. bu.) 2,252 2,135 2,026 2,052 1,936 Beg. Stocks 743 718 590 752 966 Imports 123 173 149 120 125 Total Supply 3,118 3,026 2,766 2,924 3,027 Food 945 955 958 967 971 Seed 73 77 79 66 72 Feed & Residual 370 228 122 150 200 Exports 1,012 1,176 854 775 850 Total Use 2,400 2,436 2,014 1,958 2,093 Ending Stocks 934 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 7.77 6.87 5.99 5.00 ?.?? Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

Corn Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Winter Wheat Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Spring Wheat Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Change in Planted Area Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Current Corn Futures 3.72 3.60 3.56 Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016

Current Soybean Futures 8.86 8.87 8.81 Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016

Current Wheat Futures 5.06 4.91 4.56 Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016

Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Plenty of acreage in play Moisture conditions will affect planting For the most part, demand is holding up well 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (4/6/16) 2016/17 Corn $3.70 $3.60 $3.56 Soybeans $10.10 $8.75 $8.81 $8.86 Wheat $5.99 $5.00 $4.91 $4.56

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/