World Meteorological Organization WMO is the United Nations' authoritative voice on weather, climate and water

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) United Nations Specialized Agency for meteorology, climate, operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences United Nations system’s authoritative voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans, as well as on climate and the distribution of water resources Established on 23 March 1950; direct successor to the International Meteorological Organization founded in 1873 Comprises 188 Members: 182 States and six territories 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Aviation and the Environment Global Climate Change: a reality, but more research will be needed to fully understand all the consequences for individual areas Local Air Quality: All apects of NOx, PM10, PM2, aerosols, ozone, CO need addressing - Aircraft only part of the problem, but some cities approaching limits 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Climate Change – what next? Climate change is more than « Global Warming » Public perception has changed dramatically Aviation contributing more than CO2 NOx, Cirrus effect different time scale Operational measures need to include optimized use of meteorological information Upper winds and temperatures Terminal aerodrome optimization (holdings, corner posts, runway changes) 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

EU aviation emissions growing rapidly 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Contrails and Cirrus Moderate effect during daytime, larger warming during the night (no compensating reflection of short wave radiation) + Layers of high humidity are normally thin and could potentially be avoided + Less air traffic at night would allow avoidance without compromising RVSM Need for more environmental monitoring by aircraft (AMDAR, IAGOS, MOZAIC) 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

1901 to 1950 (black), 1951 to 1978 (blue) and 1979 to 2003 (red). 1979-2003 1951-1978 1901-1950 fewer more fewer more Frequency of occurrence of cold or warm temperatures for 202 global stations for 3 time periods: 1901 to 1950 (black), 1951 to 1978 (blue) and 1979 to 2003 (red). 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Extremes Increasing! 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Effects on Cryosphere 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Precipitation pattern Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation less confidence in decrease of total number Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Migation of aviation impact: Further improvements to wind & temp forecasts –reduced flight times! Enhanced co-operation with ATC/ATM: (NGATS, SESAR….) Co-operation with airports: Winter operations, runway flooding, lightning warnings,capacity forecasts, wake vortex Increased environmental monitoring by aircraft 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

AMDAR Humidity Measurement FWD Skin SEB Hose, Non-Heated Hose, Heated Air Sampler Air Sampler Frame 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Anticipated effects on Aviation (Demand side) Tourism: Popular Destinations in Subtropics will suffer from droughts, sand-and duststorms Winter tourism (skiing) will suffer from lack of reliable snow cover Tropical Island destinations suffer from stronger cyclones, sea level rise Cost to national economies of mitigating and compensating for climate change may affext free disposable income 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Effects on Aviation Operations Hot extremes: performance limitations on flights near max endurance Tropical Cyclones: Damages to infrastructure, disruption of schedules, evacuation? Intensity of storms and convection: severe disruption of apch/dept , blocking of flight levels, runway flooding, ,sand-and dust storms 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

Thanks for material: Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Europe & Emission Trading 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward

THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Note:Aviation induced Cirrus! THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 9/19/2018Montréal The way forward