Coastal Impacts Due to Sea-Level Rise D.M. FitzGerald M.S. Fenster B.A. Argrow I.V. Buynevich 2008

Problem 10% of the world’s population lives within ten meter elevation of sea level Includes 17 of 30 largest cities Rising sea level makes coastal populations more vulnerable to storm surges, larger tides, and tsunamis.

Question What will be “the response of coasts to sea-level rise (SLR)” Concentrates on Coastal plain settings Beaches Barrier chains Tidal inlets Back-barrier wetlands

Methods Researchers used several mathematical models to link sea level changes to resulting responses Equilibrium Profile Predictive Model Predictive Morphological-Behavior Model

Equilibrium Profile “A time averaged response to variations in energy and sediment supply” (611) H(x) = Ax2/3 Used to predict shoreline migration as a result of sediment

The Predictive Model “An equation based on the Bruun equation, where the shoreline retreat rate is a function of the cross-shore distance to closure and depth, the elevation estimate of the eroded area, and the SLR rate” Suggests that “Small increases in SLR result in relatively large shoreline recessions” (611-615)

Predictive Morphological-Behavior Model Tries to simulate the “large scale morphologic and strati-graphic evolution of coasts that results from changes in sea level and sediment supply” (615-616) Tested wetlands, barriers, and tidal inlets

Predictive Morphological-Behavior Model cont. Wetlands - converted to open water? Not lineraly related to the rate of SLR Barrier Islands Will increase erosion globally Tidal Inlets Channel size will increase

Conclusion SLR will be costly in terms of money and human impact SLR will cause: Barrier islands to shift landward Saltmarshes to drown Backbarrier inlets to become open water; making inlets larger

Critiques Could have been more thorough - focused on only one area instead of the world Could have tried to put a price tag on the damage Would have been effective if they had made predictions instead of generalizations