Sunspot Cycle Phasing with Conjunctions of Jupiter and Inner Planets, 1894-2006 G. E. Pease

Sunspot cycles 1 through 23 (the current cycle). http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/images/zurich.gif More later on cycle 23 and previous cycles 4 and 13, which also had prolonged minima.

Jupiter, Venus, Mercury, and the Earth/Moon barycenter produce the greatest solar tides. The strongest solar tides occur when these planets are in conjunction, lined up with the Sun. The conventional wisdom is that planetary tidal forces on the Sun are so weak that it is only the solar plasma layers that are affected, yet apparent correlations with conjunctions of Jupiter and the inner planets have been well documented. The table is from http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0903/0903.5009.pdf To my knowledge, there is no other physical solar model for the known solar cycle periodicities.

Conjunction geometries: The solar tide-producing conjunction geometry is shown on the vertical line through the Sun, and includes oppositions of Jupiter with both superior and inferior conjunctions of the inner planets, where Earth is the most outer “inner” planet. Tidal bulges are produced on both side of the Sun at each Jupiter and inner planet conjunction. Next, I will show the geometry at each such conjunction from 1894 on, and the conjunction phasing with solar cycles during the last century.

Jupiter and the inner planets have a dual-track 10 Jupiter and the inner planets have a dual-track 10.4 year resonant periodicity, with a track separation of just 1.6 years, providing 27 conjunctions between 1894 and 2007 that are 1.6, 8.8, 10.4, and 12 years apart. Perhaps not coincidentally, the solar cycle periodicity also ranges from ~8 to ~14 years. I will show all 27 conjunctions in the next slides.

Distances and object sizes in the solar system graphic are not to scale. The solar system view is from south of the ecliptic plane, with the vernal equinox at the bottom of the diagram. See http://math-ed.com/Resources/GIS/Geometry_In_Space/java1/Temp/TLVisPOrbit.html This SMVJ conjunction was one year past the 1893 peak of cycle 13, the last prolonged solar minimum. The sunspot number (SSN) plot on the left side is from http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm?PHPSESSID=9dd2hojmldpmjj47tm6fbqhiv3

Nine years past the mid-July 1893 SSN peak, the SSN reached a minimum, but by ten years past the peak, cycle 14 was well underway at the time of this SVEJ conjunction.

This strong tidal EVMSJ conjunction occurred in 1905, one year before the 1906 SSN mid peak.

The ESMJ conjunction of 1906 at the SSN peak, which was also shown in the previous slide.

The VSEJ conjunction of 1915, almost two years before the next peak SSN.

A strong tidal EMSVJ conjunction, 3 months before the SSN peak also shown in the previous slide.

The EVSJ conjunction of 1926.

SVEJ conjunction, 10 months before the 1928 SSN peak that was also shown in the previous slide.

The VSEJ conjunction of 1936

ESVJ conjunction 5.5 months before the 1938 SSN peak that was also shown in the previous slide.

SMVEJ conjunction 13 months after the initial 1947 SSN peak SMVEJ conjunction 13 months after the initial 1947 SSN peak. With Mercury in the conjunction, this is a particularly strong tidal perturbation.

The MSEJ conjunction of 1957.

This 1958 ESVJ Conjunction is 13 months after the 1957 SSN peak shown previously.

The VSEJ conjunction of 1960, two years and eight months after the 1957 SSN peak in the two previous slides.

The MSVJ conjunction of 1967, preceding a small peak.

SVEJ conjunction is at the same 1969 SSN peak shown in the previous slide.

The EVSJ conjunction of 1970 following the 1969 SSN peak The EVSJ conjunction of 1970 following the 1969 SSN peak. Conjunction tides preceded, coincided with, and followed the SSN peak.

The VSEJ conjunction of late 1977.

ESVJ conjunction is one month before 1979 SSN peak.

VSEJ in 1981, followed the same 1979 SSN peak of the previous slide a year and a half later.

SVEJ conjunction 9 months before 1990 SSN peak.

Strong EVMSJ syzygy following the peak of cycle 22 in 1990 shown in the previous slide.

The 1993 SVEJ conjunction following the same 1990 cycle of the previous two slides.

VSEJ conjunction 18 months after SSN peak of the current cycle 23 in mid July, 2000.

8/20/2003 ESVJ syzygy following the cycle 23 SSN peak of 2000.

Powerful 2005 VSMEJ syzygy, but cycle 23 sunspots are almost gone!

Sunspot numbers continued to decrease after this 2006 ESVN conjunction.

A strangely misaligned “bad” VSMEJ conjunction of 2008 A strangely misaligned “bad” VSMEJ conjunction of 2008.48 is shown here, but was not included in the list of valid conjunctions.

The SSN count at the time I created the preceding slideshow The SSN count at the time I created the preceding slideshow. The cycle 23 SSN peak was in mid July, 2000. I noted then that if by October, 2009 the SSN count has not started to increase, the current minimum will have lasted about as long as the cycle 13 minimum (see next slide). -GEP