The Role of the Universities In the Millennium Villages Project Jeffrey D. Sachs June 5, 2006

Severe malaria

Severe malaria

MAP OF COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3 - December 2005 p.2                                                          MAP OF COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE                                                                                                                                                                        COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE (Total: 27 countries) FAO/GIEWS December 2005 Since conditions can change rapidly, and published information may not always represent the most up-to-date basis for action, enquiries or corrections should be directed to Henri Josserand, Chief, Global Information and Early Warning Service (ESCG), FAO, Rome (Fax: 39-06-5705-4495, E-mail: GIEWS1@FAO.ORG). FAO/GIEWS - December 2005                                                                --- Jeffrey D. Sachs Director, The Earth Institute at Columbia University 314 Low Library, MC 4327 535 West 116th Street New York, NY  10027 (212) 854-8704 (212) 854-8702 Fax sachs@columbia.edu http://www.sachs.earth.columbia.edu

CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA Economic Growth 1990-2003 Africa China Asia 8.0 Vietnam Cambodia India Bangladesh Uganda 4.0 Indonesia Ethiopia Mali Ghana Senegal Tanzania Malawi Pakistan Rwanda Nigeria 2.0 Kenya Decreasing Corruption Increasing Corruption

THREE GREAT CHALLENGES Green Revolution Health Revolution Connectivity Revolution

Seed, Soils, Water, Climate, Pathogens GREEN REVOLUTION: Seed, Soils, Water, Climate, Pathogens

The Yield Gap Reported Grain yield levels Some observations from sub-Saharan Africa

Per Hectare Fertilizer Use by Markets 2002/03 (kg/ha)

Nutrient Mining in Agricultural Lands of Africa 1995–97 2002–04 kg/ha

Infectious disease control, human resources, public awareness, HEALTH REVOLUTION: Infectious disease control, human resources, public awareness, logistics

Malaria Ecology Index

Sub-Saharan Africa has the Highest Prevalence of Nine Neglected Tropical Diseases Condition Cases in Africa Proportion of Global Burden in Africa Hookworm 198 million 27%-34% Ascariasis 173 million 14%-22% Schistosomiasis 166 million 89% Trichuriasis 162 million 20%-26% Trachoma 33 million 40% Lymphatic Filariasis 46 million 38% Onchocerciasis 18 million 99% Trypanosomiasis 0.5 million 100% Dracunculiasis <0.1 million 100%

Geographic Overlap of Hookworm and Malaria

CONNECTIVITY REVOLUTION: Roads, rail, ports, telecommunications, internet

A Comparison of Railway Networks in Africa and India

THE ECONOMIC STRATEGY Rural Sector: Millennium Villages Urban Sector: Millennium Cities Demographic Transition

Rural Sector Community-led development through Millennium Villages

Millennium Cities Project Urban Development Promote global competitiveness in urban areas Millennium Cities Project

Demographic Transition: Total Fertility Rate below 3.0 by 2015 Maternal empowerment, girls’ education, Child survival, contraceptive availability, Family planning

MILLENNIUM VILLAGES A NEW STRATEGY TO END EXTREME POVERTY IN AFRICA THROUGH COMMUNITY-BASED DEVELOPMENT

Income per capita COMPARATIVE GROWTH DYNAMICS OF AFRICA AND ASIA Saving Basic Needs Level Dissaving Africa Asia Poverty Trap Self-Sustaining Growth

The Strategy for Ending Extreme Poverty Millennium Villages: Raise Farm Incomes and Household Saving Introduce Microfinance Introduce Contract Farming Reduce Population Growth Rates Bolster Urban Demand and Jobs Based on Millennium Village Successes: Scale Up

Africa Has (So Far) Missed the Green Revolution Yield (tons per hectare) 2005 2.0 1.0 1960 1960 2005 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia

Raising Farm Incomes A “Green Revolution” CROP YIELDS Economic Surplus DECLINING SOIL NUTRIENTS, UNSTABLE CLIMATE, MONOCULTURE REBUILDING SOIL NUTRIENTS, RAINWATER HARVESTING, CROP DIVERSIFICATION CURRENT CRISIS MILLENNIUM VILLAGES

Area Planted to Food Declines, While Food Production Rises Cash crop production cash crops Cash crop production Food production Area planted to Food Area planted To cash crops

Contract Farming (some examples) Nestle (dairy) Carrefour Land o’ Lakes Rosebud (cut flowers) Starbucks Arachide de Bouche (peanuts) ITC South African Breweries Guiness Nigeria PLC (sorghum)

Agribusiness Development Steps: Identify potential commodities and markets Agronomic expertise Community Organization Discussions with potential international buyers and investors Millennium Cities initiative to create business-friendly environment Millennium Project policy discussions with national government Sanitary and phyto-sanitary conditions Infrastructure: storage, electricity, road transport Assistance with contract negotiations Assistance with venture capital financing and management

Examples of Opportunities for Contract Farming Cut flowers Vegetables: asparagus, broccoli, peas, fine beans, Brussels sprouts, artichoke Fruits: pineapple, mango, watermelon, passion fruit, papaya Spices: vanilla, cardamom, peppers Cane sugar Ethanol from cane sugar Cotton Dairy Honey Starch Cocoa Coffee Peanuts Cashews Wood pulp Carbon sequestration offsets

Rosebud Corporation: Located on the shores of Lake Victoria, two rose-growing farms have a total land area of over 600 acres. The farms are both within 30 minutes of Entebbe International Airport. www.rosebudlimited.com

Blue Skies, Ghana in Partnership with Royal Ahold, Netherlands

The Health Strategy: Disease Prevention and Health Promotion through: Insecticide-treated bed nets Improved water points and sanitation AIDS awareness Micronutrient supplementation De-worming School feeding Antenatal Care Reproductive health services Disease Treatment through clinical services for: Malaria Tropical parasites Diarrheal disease Respiratory infection AIDS treatments including Antiretrovirals DOTS for TB Safe delivery

REDUCED MORTALITY, FERTILITY, AND POPULATION GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE MILLENNIUM VILLAGE PROJECT

Under-5 Mortality Rate (female) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Deaths per 1000 live births Baseline (UN medium forecast) Accelerated mortality transition

Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus Current Source: OECD DAC, 2003 Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation

Scaling Up the Millennium Villages: Proving Success in 2006 From 100 Villages in 2006 to 1,000 Villages in 2007, through NGO Partnerships Millennium Villages at the G8 in 2007 Mobilizing Official and Private Donor Support during 2007-2015

Donor Costs Needed for Scaling up the Millennium Villages $60 per capita x 500,000,000 rural poor = additional $30 billion per year U.S. part: approximately (1/2) x $30 billion = $15 billion per year Needed overall U.S. aid to Africa = approximately $25 billion per year

If we fail to act: 8 million Africans will die each year of preventable or treatable causes Africa’s poverty will worsen War, violence, and threats of terror will escalate The population in Africa will soar Global disease transmission will be much more likely U.S. energy security will be imperiled Environmental degradation will accompany rapid population growth

Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus Current Source: OECD DAC, 2003 Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation

Investing in our National Security Defense $550 billion Defense Aid to Africa $25 billion Aid to Africa $4 billion Current For a safer America