The World in 2000 Pax-Americana End of History (Triumph of capitalist democracy) George H.W. Bush, “Out of these troubled times a new world order can emerge: a new era, freer from the threat of terror.”

Origins of the Jihad Soviet – Afghan War 1979 Following an uprising against the government the Soviet Union intervenes in Afghanistan 1000s of fighters travel from around the world to fight against the USSR

1998 Al Qaeda Fatwa The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies—civilians and military—is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque [in Jerusalem] and the holy mosque [in Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. This is in accordance with the words of Almighty Allah, 'and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together,' and 'fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah‘

Objectives Unity and Legitimacy (1) A unified Islamic community ruled by religiously sanctioned governance is the solution to all grievances (2) The US and the international system are major obstacles to that realisation.

Global War on Terror Eradicate terror threats globally Build alliances with other states to such ends Target state sponsored terror; Iran, Iraq, Syria Eliminate key leaders; bin Laden, Zarqawi, Omar Defeat terror organisations; al Qaeda Eliminate terror sanctuaries; Afghanistan, Sudan Strengthen weak and failing states Integrate domestic and international security and intelligence; Dept of Homeland Security

With us or against us? November 2001 "A coalition partner must do more than just express sympathy, a coalition partner must perform.“ "Over time it's going to be important for nations to know they will be held accountable for inactivity.“ "You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror."

Axis of Evil January 2002 North Korea "A regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.” Iran "aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom." Iraq “continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. Syria, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Myanmar, Libya, Cuba “Outposts of Tyranny”

Justifications for War Weapons of mass destruction Connections with al Qaeda Post 9/11 political environment Marketing the war

United Nations Security Council A war mandate would require a super majority 9 of 15 with no veto from permanent members UK - primary US supporter France - would veto military intervention Russia - would support a US-led war if things did not change China - continued inspections.

Coalition of the Willing 48 Countries Troops: US, UK, Poland, Australia Italy, Spain, Denmark strategic and air support Kurdistan Regional Government Turkey refused coalition access to its air space

Invasion Coalition Iraq US (148,000) UK (45,000) 500,000 Troops Australia (2,000) Poland (194) Peshmerga (70,000) M1A1 Abrams Tanks F-117 Stealth bombers AWACS Guidance Systems 500,000 Troops 650,000 reserves Soviet T-72 Tanks Aircraft disassembled and buried

March 20 air and ground operations commence April 10 fall of Baghdad May 1 Bush declares combat operations over July 22: Uday and Qusay Hussein killed September 3: First post-Saddam government October/ November beginnings of large scale Sunni and Shi’ite insurgency

Trial and Execution Convicted of the Dujail Massacre 1982 Anfal Campaign, Iran–Iraq War, invasion of Kuwait; war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide Saddam rejects legitimacy of the court Judge, “State your name.” Saddam, "You are an Iraqi, you know who I am.“ Trial criticized by rights groups as a ‘Kangaroo Court”

DAESH Al QAEDA Iraq and Syria Libya Egypt (Sinai) Saudi Arabia Yemen 3Algeria Afghanistan-Pakistan Nigeria North Caucasus Somalia Philippines Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb Al-Qaeda in Palestine Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Al-Qaeda in Somalia Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent Khorasan Group Al-Qaeda in Sinai Peninsula Al-Qaeda Kurdish Battalions Al Qaeda in the Lands Beyond the Sahel Al-Qaeda in Bosnia and Herzegovina Al-Qaeda in Spain 50-75K

Is the world a safer place? Al Qaeda decentralized but still relevant, especially in Yemen Islamic State in decline but still relevant No major attacks in US But terrorism in Europe has increased Russia becoming prominent target Boko Haram, al Shabaab in decline but AQIM still relevant Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen are failed states South Asia increasingly becoming jihadist stronghold Sectarianism in the ME stronger