PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEES: 26 OCTOBER 2016 SOUTH AFRICA’S RATIFICATION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER THE UNFCCC PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEES: 26 OCTOBER 2016

PURPOSE To seek approval for ratification of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

BACKGROUND[1] The Paris Agreement is a legal instrument that will further guide the process for universal action on climate change; The universal agreement’s main objective is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels; The COP 21 launched an Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement (APA) The role of the APA is to develop guidance, rules and procedures in preparation of the entry into force of the agreement by 2020.

BACKGROUND[2] All Parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change are now expected to undertake the next step to adopt the agreement within their own legal systems, through ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. The Paris Agreement shall enter into force on the 30th day after the date on which at least 55 parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least 55% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession with the depository.

MOMENTUM ON THE RATIFICATION PROCESSES Global political considerations, in particular the current elections in the USA, have created unexpected momentum, on entry into force. On 5th October 2016, the double threshold was achieved, with 79 Parties having already ratified the Agreement, accounting for close to 60% of global emissions. This means that the Conference of the Parties, serving as the Meeting of the Parties (CMA1) for the Paris Agreement will be convened during COP22 in Marrakech. It is likely that the CMA1 will be suspended, until 2018, to ensure inclusivity of the decision-making processes, by allowing time for more Parties to ratify the agreement, and for conclusion of preparatory work that supports the operationalization of the Paris Agreement

SOUTH AFRICA’S RATIFICATION PROCESS[1] The Agreement must be approved by Parliament in terms of section 231(2) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996 following national stakeholder consultations. Steps taken and concluded: DEA obtained legal opinion from Department International Relations and Cooperation and Department of Justice and Constitutional Development. Acting on behalf of the President, the Minister signed the Paris Agreement on the 21 April 2016 in New York. An extensive process of consultation was concluded, on South Africa’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (in 2015), on the outcomes of COP 21, and ratification of the Paris Agreement as well as on the mandate for Marrakech COP 22 (in 2016)

BENEFITS OF RATIFICATION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT[1] The Paris Agreement for the first time brings all nations into a common cause based on their historic, current and future responsibilities. Benefits of ratification are: A strong, legally-binding international framework will, from 2020, guide the global response to the global challenge of climate change Ratification ensures that political momentum is maintained at the international level (including momentum on finalising the rule set to operationalise the Agreement, and momentum is created for domestic implementation; Global co-operation in limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees: achievement of the 1.5 degree temperature limit will only occur if all Parties act promptly to put in place measures to implement their NDCs;

BENEFITS OF RATIFICATION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT[2] will mobilise multilateral effort to achieve the Global Adaptation Goal, thereby raising the profile and importance of support for developing countries in adapting to the impacts of climate change requires Parties to undertake and communicate Nationally Determined Contributions which must represent a progression overtime, towards achieving the purpose of the Agreement, and recognises that developing countries require support for these efforts; Parties will also report on progress; requires a Global Stocktake to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of the Agreement and its long term goals. This will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their Nationally Determined Contributions.

IMPLICATIONS FOR EARLY ENTRY INTO FORCE [1] Currently, 79 countries including the US, China and Brazil as well as 13 African countries (Cameroon, Somalia, Ghana, Guinea, Madagascar, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, Senegal, Seychelles, Swaziland and Uganda ) have now ratified the PA and accounting for almost 60 % of total global emission. Article 16 of the PA states that “Parties that have ratified the agreement shall have a decision making powers during the CMA meeting”. Parties that would have not ratified the PA during the CMA will only be accorded an observer status. This means that should the agreement enters into force in 2016 South Africa will not be at a decision making table.

IMPLICATIONS FOR EARLY ENTRY INTO FORCE Given South Africa´s leading role in developing the landmark Paris Agreement and the international political significance being attached to South Africa joining the Agreement well ahead 2020, it is recommended that the ratification process is prioritised. The COP 22 in Morocco will have to take a decision on how to handle the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement. There are currently 4 options involving the suspension of the CMA and to continue work under the APA/COP: APA discontinued and CMA undertakes preparatory work; CMA continues work with the support of APA or Subsidiary Bodies; CMA suspended and APA continues work program; CMA suspended and COP continues work with support of APA or SBs) Options 1 and 2 are not in favour of South Africa.

Implications for South Africa The Paris Agreement requires South Africa to: submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) every five years. We submitted our Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in 2015, which applies to 2025 & 2030. The next NDC (applicable to 2035) will be due in 2023. develop policies and measures (PAMs) to implement our NDCs, and to report on progress. This work is well underway. account for our NDC (the extent to which we have met the goals of our NDC). A national climate change response tracking system is in place, and the first annual climate change response report has been published. submit biennial reports to the UNFCCC on national circumstances, emissions, adaptation and other facets of climate change. The 2nd Biennial Update Report has been published for public comment. South Africa should submit regular communications on adaptation, and also develop a long-term low-carbon development strategy. This work has been initiated

What we are doing, and will need to do The development of South Africa’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy is well underway, and a framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been agreed by Cabinet. A climate change response monitoring and evaluation system has been developed to track South Africa’s transition to a lower carbon and climate resilient economy. However, we will have to increase the pace of implementation We will have to scale up investments significantly in renewable energy, public transport, energy efficiency, waste management and land restoration initiatives country-wide, in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of our economy. All spheres of Government will need to refine their strategies for adapting to the impacts of climate change, and for enhancing the capacity of institutions, services, infrastructure, human settlements and ecosystem services to respond to and bounce back from the impacts of climate change.

RECOMMENDATIONS It is recommended that the ratification of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change is approved by Parliament.

SECRET SECRET