Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

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Presentation transcript:

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington

Global Climate Models 20th Century Validation

IPCC Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Climate Change

Range of Projected Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest from Latest IPCC Climate Simulations

21st Century Change

Shift in Pacific Storm Track Observed 20th Century Model Composite 21st Century Model Composite Salathé, Geophys Res Lett, 2006

Downscaling

Downscaling Methods Used in CIG Impacts studies Empirical Downscaling • Assumes climate model captures temperature and precipitation trends • Quick: Can do many scenarios • Shares uncertainties with global models Regional Climate Model Based on MM5 regional weather model Represents regional weather processes May produce local trends not depicted by global models Additional modeling layer adds bias and uncertainty

Mesoscale Climate Model Based on MM5 Weather Model Nested grids 135-45-15 km Nudging on outermost grid by forcing global model Advanced land-surface model (NOAH) with interactive deep soil temperature

Potential Surprises How does loss of snowpack feed back on the climate? How do changes in the winds affect the local climate? Are their changes in cloudiness that can affect the local rate of warming?

MM5 Simulations ECHAM5 global model to force the mesoscale system 1990-2000 to see how well the system is working 2020-2030, 2045-2055, 2090-2100 Climate Change

1990s Validation 1995 Daily Max and Min Temperature at SeaTac MM5 Max Obs Record Max Obs Mean Max Temperature (°F) Obs Mean Min Obs Record Min MM5 Min Day of Year

1990s Validation 1990-2000 Mean Surface temperature January July Gridded Observations MM5 - NCEP Reanalysis MM5 - ECHAM5 January July

Evaluation of Future Runs Because there are some biases in the GCM runs, results for future decades (2020s, 2040s, and 2090s) will be evaluated against the ECHAM5-MM5 1990-2000 baseline

Difference between MM5 and ECHAM5 Winter Warming 1990s to 2050s Temperature Change Difference between MM5 and ECHAM5

Loss of Snow cover and Warming Snow Cover Change Temperature Change

Consistent trend over 21st Century

MM5 Compared to raw Climate model 2020s 2050s 2090s

Difference between MM5 and ECHAM5 Spring 1990s to 2050s Temperature Change Difference between MM5 and ECHAM5

Pressure gradient and Cloud Pressure Change Cloud Change

Trend over 21st Century 2020s 2050s 2090s

MM5 Compared to Raw Climate Model 2020s 2050s 2090s

Winter Trends at Various Stations MM5 - ECHAM5 10 IPCC Models

Applications: Air Quality

Applications: Hydrology

Summary Projected Pacific Northwest Climate Change warming: 1/4 to 1 ºF/decade Probably more warming in Summer than Winter Precipitation changes uncertain – Possibly wetter winters and drier summers Challenges Deficiencies in Global model propagate to regional model Biases from regional model Mesoscale model simulates different climate signal from global model Loss of snow amplifies warming in Winter and Spring Increased cloud cover in Spring -- reduces effect of snow loss

Shift to Northerly Winds Change in Sea-level Pressure Change in Surface Winds

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