A Team Effort to Tackle a Complex Problem / MSEAS The Landing obligation in the North Sea a University of Tromsø (UiT) b NRC (Europe) Ltd. UK * Corresponding author Charlotte Weber a *, Melania Borit a and John Pope b

The Story of a Quest The fellowship We are on the story here, not on the problem – NO FINISHED PRODUCT It’s like the ring – without a ring no quest, without a discards ban, no modelling in this case

«Discard ban» –Landing Obligation (LO) EU landing obligation rules from the EUR-lex http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1452249922336&uri=CELEX:32015R2440 Started on the 1st of January 2015 – will be fully implemented by 2019 in all EU member states “The Ring” http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1452249922336&uri=CELEX:32015R2440

The North Sea Case Study Dutch Beam Trawling fleet in the North Sea MF decision support framework Mixed fishery High discards Likely experience fishing grid lock – choke species Data availability This case study is part of MareFrame Makes a good lab rat at the same time Middle Earth – this is the context, the world the ring will be carried through Picture source: www.courtofaudit.nl/dsresource?objectid=16792&type=org http://mareframe.mapix.com/ www.courtofaudit.nl/dsresource?objectid=16792&type=org “Middle Earth”

ICES Outstanding achievement award 2012 LO and the North Sea John Pope Fisheries modeller ICES Outstanding achievement award 2012 First it was only John, in MareFrame, it was a relatively disciplinary approach John has a history of working very well together with the stakholders Tools of the hobbit is the model – then the other ones came in, bc the hobbit didn’t have enough capacity to fulfill the quest by himself – the team now interdisciplinary John Pope was awarded with the Outstanding Achievement Award from ICES in 2012 for his great contribution to ICES and to science “The Ring Bearer”

LO and the North Sea - Models For Decision Support Framework From R to Excel To be used by stakeholders This is the overview of what I am trying to do for Stakeholders under MAREFRAME. I teamed up with Melania and You because red model needs social inputs as well as economic and fisheries inputs to understand fishers behaviour Green model: Its Structure should:- Take Account of Species Interactions and Technical Interactions Handle the main range of TAC species. Allow fishing to be changed in realistic ways Its Outputs should include the important trade offs:- Species Yield Fleet Economics Social implications Ecosystem Effects Most of all it MUST BE:- Transportable, Easy to understand and Responsive. Orange model: Broad Requirements as Green Model but with area and size. Need to include possibility for area closure Need to include some species as multiple stocks (e.g. Nephrops) Possible Approach. Attempt an area and sized based model based upon SMS or similar overall model results. These would then be partitioned by fleet rectangle data and by survey data. http://mareframe.mapix.com/ “The Quest & the tools”

The Landing Obligations & Questions it Raises The fishers: How will fishers react? What kind of behavior will they show? What is the probable behaviour? Compliance / non-compliance? What is the likely compliance outcome? The Landings Obligation (LO) Social Constraints on Behaviour The introduction of the LO raised certain questions, so we wondered about these things in terms what fishers will do? What behavior they will show and what are the consequences going to be? “The Quest”

The Team Effort – A Journey  Build a multidisciplinary team for interdisciplinary work John Pope The mathematician / Fisheries modeller Melania Borit The lawyer / social scientist Charlotte Weber The biologist / marine scientist Tools of the hobbit is the model – then the other ones came in, bc the hobbit didn’t have enough capacity to fulfill the quest by himself – the team now interdisciplinary “The Fellowship”

The Team Effort – A Journey The economic/Ecosystem Model Behavior / Compliance Considerations Model considers (so far) Fish Size Fish age Fleet Area Landings Value… WHY fishermen are inclined to break the rules enormous economic pressure on the industry certain regulations can only be checked at sea, which is very difficult in practice complex rules system limited trust in authorities limited enforcement capacity Dutch policy is not strict enough limits on the industry's willingness to be controlled * What does the model need to cover? Area, size, species, landings, discards, value, cost. Explain the data sources. * Present a bit more details of the model. Maybe the stakeholders will be able to use it themselves. Entrails of the model Data sources – how to use Data compression – how to get down to excel, size problem Talking about the ring with different languages “The Quest” www.courtofaudit.nl/dsresource?objectid=16792&type=org

Drivers for compliance/non-compliance Self interest Enforcement Inducement Social Pressure Obligation Subconscious consideration Regulations Economic and biological conditions The behavior of others Conviction Profit john asked for data about how ppl behaved in other countries that have already implemented LO BUT we came with this data but still it wasn’t good enough Many different drivers for compliance  Lias graph and acknowledgements here BUT That was too complex and then we narrowed it down to only profit as a driver So now we limited it down to simple scenarios Examples in the next slide (pic but nice) “The Quest” L. ní Aodha, unpublished

Where we are now Scenarios: Change in profit Sx: change grounds S1: BAU 0 S2: X -X% S3: … +X% Sx: change grounds Change gear (increase mesh size) ? Exit fishery Driver ONLY driver = Profit Only bahvior = simple fishing strategies Behavior “The Quest”

The Team Effort – Lessons Learned John Melania / Charlotte Fleet behavior Wanted a number from the social scientists, something to measure Wanted economic data which is easily available e.g. profit Individual behavior Would like to know the drivers of the behavior But only profit is available as measurable data Social complexity we had hoped for couldn’t be realized  Came down to simple fishing strategies “The Quest”

The Team Effort – Lessons learned Agree on a common objective Open Discussion Explain where you are coming from Thinking Method Assumptions “World” / “Culture” Face-to-face meeting Open discussion – have an open discussion but also BE open for a discussion It takes a lot of flipcharts and white boards “The Quest”

The Quest continues… 2016 Riga ASC

Charlotte.t.weber@uit.no ● melania.borit@uit.no ● PopeJG@aol.com Thank You Charlotte.T.Weber@uit.no ● Melania.Borit@uit.no ● PopeJG@aol.com The Daily Fish @saf21esr This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme Marie Skłodowska-Curie (MSC) - ITN - ETN programme (project 642080): 2015 – 2018. www.saf21.org Charlotte.t.weber@uit.no ● melania.borit@uit.no ● PopeJG@aol.com