GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009 Final Version, 31.10.2008

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Table of contents Background Results 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Background GTE Winter Outlook presented to GCG on 25 October 2007, results of additional analyses were presented to GCG on 8 January 2008 Analyze at EU level EU capacity / demand balance Integrated flow patterns Member State capacity / demand balances for Normal cold conditions Exceptional cold conditions 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Table of contents Background Results 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Participating countries Up-to-date data received from 23 countries Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom For 2 countries data provided in 2007 for the Winter Outlook 2007/2008 was used Greece and Lithuania Assumptions taken for exit points to countries for which no data was received (within or outside EU) 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

Involved countries / data provision EU member – data Non EU member - data Non EU member – exit capacity data EU member – data of 2007 EU member – no data Non EU member 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

EU capacity / demand balance (GWh /d) Total capacity connected with import 12.286 Total capacity connected with LNG 4.464 Total national production 8.633 Total storage 12.748 38.131 Total Market (Normal cold conditions) 28.442 Total Market (Exceptional cold conditions) 35.400 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 7

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Results Integrated EU flow patterns  normal cold conditions *  exceptional cold conditions * Capacity / demand balances * Exceptional cold conditions and normal cold conditions as defined in the individual Member States. 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

Integrated EU flow patterns Derivation of an integrated EU flow pattern, taking into account the following conditions: Entry flows from another country ≤ IP capacity at entry points Flows from national production ≤ national production past flows* Flows from storages ≤ storage send out capacity** Exit flows to another country = national intakes – mkt. demand * taking into account the depletion of production fields ** taking into account the decrease of storage performance during winter For the avoidance of doubt: The integrated flow patterns represent hypothetical cases just for the purposes of this Winter Outlook; The integrated flow patterns of the Winter Outlook 2008/2009 are not directly comparable with those of the Winter Outlook 2007/2008 as the method for deriving the flow patterns differs 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Capacity / demand balances + IP capacity at entry points* + National production past flows** + Storage send out capacity*** - Capacity usage to other countries For each country Market demand forecast - normal cold conditions exceptional cold conditions Capacity / demand balance = normal cold conditions exceptional cold conditions * lesser of entry capacity and upstream exit capacity at the IP ** taking into account the depletion of production fields *** taking into account the decrease of storage performance during winter 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

Integrated EU flow pattern – normal cold conditions NP:79% ST:79% 79% N FIN Entry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries Entry/Exit flows between EU countries NP: ST: Flows from National Production Flows from Storage FIGURE LEGEND * IP capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies) % Utilization ratio of the infrastructure Utilization ratio <= max reference value Utilization ratio > max reference value S ST:65% 91% EST IE 67% 82% 79% LV UK NP:82% ST:82% 65% 85% LT NP:82% ST:82% NP:77% ST:77% DK 83% 70% 78% 83% 70% BY NL 70% PL 77% 13% NP:67 % ST:67% 70% 70% 77% 83% CZ ST:80% UA ST:83% 88% B 56% 56% D 70% 80% ST:88% LUX 69% NP:70% ST:70% SK 100% 69% 89% AU 80% 56% 69% 75% 83% 78% NP:89% ST:89% NP:80% ST:80% HU CH RO NP:69% ST:69% 83% 96% NP:100% ST:100% F 78% 83% 96% SI 100% 73% BG NP:83% ST:83% 83% NP:78% ST:78% RS ST: 59% I 40% ST: 93% HR ST:83% P ES GR 59% 78% 40% GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 59% 83%

Integrated EU flow pattern – normal cold conditions NP:79% ST:79% 79% N FIN S ST:65% 91% EST IE 67% 82% 79% LV UK NP:82% ST:82% 65% 85% LT NP:82% ST:82% NP:77% ST:77% DK 83% 70% 78% 83% 70% BY NL 70% PL 77% 13% NP:67 % ST:67% 70% 70% 77% 83% CZ ST:80% UA ST:83% 88% B 56% 56% D 70% 80% ST:88% LUX 69% NP:70% ST:70% SK 100% 69% 89% AU 80% 56% 69% 75% 83% 78% NP:89% ST:89% NP:80% ST:80% HU CH RO NP:69% ST:69% 83% 96% NP:100% ST:100% F 78% 83% 96% SI 100% 73% BG NP:83% ST:83% 83% NP:78% ST:78% RS ST: 59% I 40% ST: 93% HR ST:83% P ES GR 59% 78% 40% GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 59% 83%

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Integrated EU flow pattern – exceptional cold conditions NP:96% ST:96% 96% N FIN Entry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries Entry/Exit flows between EU countries NP: ST: Flows from National Production Flows from Storage FIGURE LEGEND * IP capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies) % Utilization ratio of the infrastructure Utilization ratio <= max reference value Utilization ratio > max reference value S ST: 71% 96% EST IE IE 49% 96% 87% LV NP:91% ST:91% NP:87% ST:87% 71% 94% UK LT DK NP:96% ST:96% 96% 96% 87% 96% BY 88% NL 92% PL 9% 96% NP:96% ST:96% 72% 95% 96% 96% CZ ST:96% UA ST:96% 98% B 58% 58% 44% 96% ST:98% D 86% LUX NP:96% ST:96% SK 100% 86% 96% AU 93% 58% 80% 75% 99% 99% NP:96% ST:96% NP:93% ST:93% HU CH RO NP:86% ST:86% 99% NP:100% ST:100% F 98% 91% 99% 99% SI 100% 73% BU 90% NP:91% ST:91% NP:99% ST:99% ST: 67% I RS 42% ST: HR 93% ST:90% P ES GR 67% 99% 42% 31.10.2008 90% GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 67%

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Integrated EU flow pattern – exceptional cold conditions NP:96% ST:96% 96% N FIN S ST: 71% 96% EST IE IE 49% 96% 87% LV NP:91% ST:91% NP:87% ST:87% 71% 94% UK LT DK NP:96% ST:96% 96% 96% 87% 96% BY 88% NL PL 9% 92% 96% NP:96% ST:96% 72% 95% 96% 96% CZ ST:96% UA ST:96% 98% B 58% 58% D 44% 96% ST:98% 86% LUX NP:96% ST:96% SK 100% 86% 96% AU 93% 58% 80% 75% 99% 99% NP:96% ST:96% NP:93% ST:93% HU CH RO NP:86% ST:86% 99% NP:100% ST:100% F 98% 91% 99% 99% SI 100% 73% BU 90% NP:91% ST:91% NP:99% ST:99% ST: 67% I RS 42% ST: HR 93% ST:90% P ES GR 67% 99% 42% 31.10.2008 90% GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 67%

Normal cold conditions – capacity / demand balances 91% Balance > 100% 65% 82% 82% 68% 79% 67% 70% 77% 83% 56% 80% 88% 69% 83% 89% 75% 96% 80% 78% 59% 83% 83% 40% 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 15

Normal cold conditions vs. Exceptional cold conditions No difference (E/N) ≤ 10% 10% < (E/N) < 30% (E/N) ≥ 30% 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

Exceptional cold conditions – capacity / demand balances 96% Balance > 105% 71% 91% 87% 73% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 58% 96% 98% 86% 99% 96% 100% 99% 93% 99% 67% 90% 91% 42% 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version Key findings Integrated flow patterns show functioning capacity / demand balances both in normal cold and exceptional cold conditions Considerable flexibility in normal cold conditions and in several countries even in exceptional cold conditions GTE+ as the predecessor of ENTSOG committed to work in close cooperation with stakeholders on (among others): European Winter Outlooks 08/09 and 09/10 European 10 Year Network Development Statement 31.10.2008 GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version