Economic Outlook December 2015 Economic Policy Division
U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2016 Trillion $2009 Forecast
U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential (Real $2013 dollars)
Comparing Recoveries (Growth Rates) (SAAR) Trough Peak # of Quarters Real GDP Productivity Real Total Compensation Income* Q4 1949 Q2 1953 14 7.6 3.6 4.2 Q2 1954 Q3 1957 13 4.0 2.2 3.0 Q2 1958 Q2 1960 8 5.6 2.7 3.4 Q1 1961 Q4 1969 35 4.9 2.4 3.7 Q4 1970 Q4 1973 12 5.1 1.8 Q1 1975 Q1 1980 20 4.3 1.7 1.0 Q3 1980 Q3 1981 4 4.4 0.3 Q4 1982 Q3 1990 31 2.1 Q1 1991 Q1 2001 40 2.3 Q4 2001 Q4 2007 24 2.8 2.5 0.9 1.9 Q2 2009 Q2 2015 * Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita, BEA
Comparing Recoveries II Job Growth During Recovery Periods Trough Peak Ave Job Growth per Month Ave Nonfarm Employment Share Oct 1949 (Q4) Jul 1953 (Q3) 169,000 47,667,000 0.35% May 1954 (Q2) Aug 1957 (Q3) 107,000 51,441,000 0.21% Apr 1958 (Q2) Apr 1960 (Q2) 158,000 52,902,000 0.30% Feb 1961 (Q1) Dec 1969 (Q4) 167,000 61,740,000 0.27% Nov 1970 (Q4) Nov 1973 (Q4) 208,000 73,805,000 0.28% Mar 1975 (Q1) Jan 1980 (Q1) 244,000 83,642,000 0.29% Jul 1980 (Q3) Jul 1981 (Q3) -173,000 90,641,000 -0.19% Nov 1982 (Q4) Jul 1990 (Q3) 229,000 100,272,000 0.23% Mar 1991(Q1) Mar 2001 (Q1) 201,000 119,615,000 0.17% Nov 2001 (Q4) Dec 2007 (Q4) 99,000 133,467,000 0.07% Jun 2009 (Q2) Nov 2015 (Q3) 155,000 135,072,000 0.11%
Income Inequality Presidents Term Change in Gini Nixon 1969-1974 0.009 Ford 1974-1976 -0.002 Carter 1977-1980 0.005 Reagan 1981-1988 0.023 Bush 1989-1992 0.007 Clinton 1993-2000 0.029 2001-2008 0.004 Obama 2009- 0.014
CBO’s Baseline Deficit (August 2015) Budget Deficit Deficit to GDP
Government Baseline Outside Debt (August 2015) Debt Debt to GDP
Government Revenues and Outlays (Percent of GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (August 2015)
Government Outlays Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest Source: CBO Baseline (August 2015) Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest
Mandatory Spending as a Share of Total Revenues Mandatory Spending (Entitlements + Net Interest)
Economic Outlook December 2015 J.D. Foster
The Greenspan Conundrum
The Greenspan Conundrum
CBO’s Baseline Deficit (August 2015) Budget Deficit Deficit to GDP