Trucking over the Medium Term: Thoughts and Projections

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Presentation transcript:

Trucking over the Medium Term: Thoughts and Projections Arnold Maltz, Ph.D. Supply Chain Management W.P. Carey School of Business Arizona State University 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006

Assumptions Economic growth continues at about the current pace, or somewhat slower. As populations age, the mix of products demanded may change, and then... Globalization may result in large wealth transfer The effects of retirement???? The pace of infrastructure improvement remains relatively slow. Environmental concerns stay strong. “NIMBY” continues as a potent force. Technological change (e.g. new engines/fuels) is not “disruptive”. 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006

Trucking and GDP: So Far Source: “ The U. S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Forecasts,” Global Insight, Inc. for the American Trucking Associations, May 2005 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006

Consensus Forecasts (BTS 2003) Table 2-5: Comparison of Domestic Freight Demand Forecasts Historic Data Forecasts (compound annual growth rate) (ann. growth) BTS AASHTO ATA ICF (ton-miles) (tons) 1990-2000 2000-2025 2000-2020 2002-2014 Truck 3.9%a 2.6% a 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% Rail 3.6% 0.2% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% Water -2.5% 0.7% 1.6% Air 5.2% 3.1% 5.7% 4.4% 4.0% Note a: Intercity truck only. Source: Historic data from BTS, National Transportation Statistics 2003; forecasts from sources described in report text.

Projected Truck Patterns 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006

The Wild Cards (?) Fuel costs Driver shortages Accelerating imports/marine competition Road infrastructure Rail improvements Security 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006

The Driver Shortage “The U. S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Insights,” by Global Insights for the American Trucking Associations, May, 2005 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006

My Opinion Slow shift in share to rail/intermodal 1-3 points in ton-miles by 2020 Redistribution to other than California ports Inland port development Shorter length of haul for trucks. Significant import of Mexican drivers and, possibly, Mexican trucking companies. Operational efficiency continues to improve, based on technology. 9/20/2018 IFTA - 2006