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1 1 Presented by: Sara L. Johnson Managing Director Global Macroeconomics Group DRI-WEFA August 7, 2001 The U.S. Economic Outlook: Turbulent Times.

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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

Investing 101. Types of Savings tools Savings Account: An interest-bearing account (passbook or statement) at a financial institution. Certificates of.

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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

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 Problems, Policy, and The Fed.  Economic Problems: o Inflation o Loss of wages for workers o Lowered standard of living o Unemployment o Recession.

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CHAPTER 2 Economic Activity. MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY  Economic growth is the steady increase in the production of goods and services in an economic.

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Presentation transcript:

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

We meet every Sunday at 7:15PM – 8:15PM at W151 in PBB Membership Dues: $20/semester Food/Drinks every meeting Investment information and education Great trading tips and strategies Investment Competition: $15/semester Best way to gain experience and learn Past prizes include iPads, Apple TVs, gift cards Fun Discussion atmosphere, member involvement

$15 to enter competition All money goes to prizes so more people = better prizes Must attend 50% of meetings in order to be eligible for prizes Top 8 get prizes (tentatively) Wont allow high frequency trading or anything that is unrealistic Starts tomorrow!

Federal Reserve – serves as the central bank of the U.S. Dual Mandate – Maximum Employment, Price Stability (low inflation) QE3 - $85 billion a month in Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities Keeps interest rates low by encouraging banks extend loans Hopes to encourage growth through investment due to low interest rates CNBC poll – economists expected tapering by $15 million a month

NO TAPERING!! $85 billion a month treasury and mortgage bond buying program to continue Inflation in control and unemployment too high Fiscal tightening in Washington remains a significant obstacle Dow and S&P 500 soar to record levels

Fed Keeps Bond Buying Program Intact Wed 18 Sep 13 | 2:00 PM ET

ETF – Exchange Traded Fund Gives investors simplicity but diversification Various types of ETFs Track indexes Track international markets Sector strategy Bonds Investment Styles Leveraged

RATES RISE TMV – Direxion daily 20+ year treasury bear 3x shares TYO – Direxion daily 7-10 year treasury bear 3x shares RATES LOWER TMF – Direxion daily 20+ year treasury bull 3x shares TYD – Direxion daily 7-10 year treasury bull 3x shares

Maximum Employment Price Stability (low inflation)

Unemployment < 6% Inflation < 2% ACTUAL? Unemployment 7.3% Inflation 1.5%

Measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers Actual: 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% to 0.3% Prior: 0.2% The latest consumer inflation numbers are tame and will not be pressuring the Fed to taper in a hurry – Bloomberg.com

Actual: 309,000 Consensus: 320k to 350k Prior: 294k Issues in California and Nevada led to an undercount in previous period Employment situation – October 4th

This is incredibly wimpy – David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Funds The idea that the economy is still too weak to taper and market goes up has its limits. If we keep going we are taking away from future returns. - Leon Cooperman, manager of the Omega Advisors The Fed understands, as the market seems not to, that the current 'recovery' could not survive without continuation of massive monetary stimulus," - Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital

With a weak economy the Fed delays move to withdraw stimulus When will they reduce the amount of bond purchases? How much of a reduction is expected?

Most powerful economic policy-making job Head of central banking system Manages monetary policy Bernankes term ends in January President appointment with Senate approval Search for new successor

Announced withdrawal from consideration Former Treasury Secretary Considered Obamas top choice Favors deregulation Market reacted positively on Monday

Last Friday (9/13) – Last Monday (9/16) Summers announcement led to positive market opening Monday Dow Futures jumped more than year Treasury Note Yield fell to 2.82 percent

Expected to lead Fed More dovish (continue stimulus) Favors regulation Guide towards economic recovery Must decrease unemployment and enhance job growth

Yellen expected to keep interest rates low Resulting in continued investments in stocks

Out with: Alcoa (AA), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Bank of America (BAC) New companies: Nike (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Visa (V) Last change happened a year ago

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer retiring Microsoft (MSFT) increased divided 22% (now at 28 cents per share, quarterly) Announced new $40 billion dollar stock buyback plan

GTA sales hit $1 Billion in three days, faster than any other video game or movie IOS 7 released

Wednesday Durable Goods Orders New Home Sales Thursday GDP Jobless Claims Friday Personal Income and Outlays