Jennifer Boehnert Emily Riddle Tom Hopson

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Presentation transcript:

Jennifer Boehnert Emily Riddle Tom Hopson Web Mapping of rainfall forecasts and observations over the Ganges and Brahamaputra river basins Jennifer Boehnert Emily Riddle Tom Hopson

Goal: Create an effective display tool for precipitation forecasts relevant to hydrological flows and flood prediction Components: Near real-time rainfall forecasts displayed on hydrological catchments Up-to-date satellite observations of recent precipitation Forecast archives and satellite validation for selected past periods of flooding

Processing for Real-time Web Display Forecast Models: Automatically downloaded every 6 hours to NCAR Calculate ensemble mean and spread Calculate 24 hr and 5 day accumulations at various lead times Realtime Satellite Observations: Automatically downloaded and merged every 6 hours Regrid and integrate to catchments at two different scales Calculate 24 hr and 5 day accumulations Catchment shape files Interactive Map Comparisons with climate archive GIS Pre-processing for display Historical Satellite Data Archive

Forecasts Forecasts are on 2 day delay from TIGGE (The International Grand Global Ensemble). Forecast Center Country / Region # of Ensemble Members Forecast Out to: Currently on Display ECMWF Europe 50 15 days Yes UKMO UK 11 7 days EC Canada 20 16 days NCEP USA < Dec 2015 CMA China 14 No CPTEC Brazil MeteoFrance France 34 4.5 days JMA Japan 26 11 days BoM Australia 32 10 days KMA Korea 23 10.5 days Originally a project of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme project to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts.

Satellite Products Satellite products are available as soon as each 24-hour accumulation period is completed. Product Name Institution Country Sensor Types Resolution TRMM NASA USA Passive microwave, Infrared 0.25 deg GSMAP JAXA Japan 0.1 deg CMORPH NOAA ~0.1 deg Our NCAR merged product is a simple average of the available satellite products

Spatial and temporal scales: Skill improves with larger temporal and spatial averaging periods/areas. Spatial: 28 Catchments 4696 Catchments Temporal: 24 hour accumulations: 0 to 10 day lead times 5 day accumulations: 0-4 day, 5-9 day, 10-14 day lead times

New features: 1) Time series plots for each catchment: Upcoming 10 day rainfall forecast Seasonal cycle with recent rainfall amounts 2) Ensemble spread information 3) Historical dates with similar precipitation amounts 4) Calibrated forecasts