Statistics for economic analysis and policy making in Europe Part 12 CONTRACTOR IS ACTING UNDER A FRAMEWORK CONTRACT CONCLUDED WITH THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION

  Selected sets of statistical data with high political relevance – Overview Maastricht criteria Regional policy and regional statistics Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI) Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) Europe 2020 strategy   Summary

Maastricht criteria The convergence criteria are conditions that Member States of the EU must fulfil to join in economic and monetary union and to use the Euro as official currency. There are four conditions, all aimed at increasing the convergence among the EMU participants: Price stability Government budgetary position Exchange rates Long-term interest rates

Maastricht criteria General government deficit (-) and surplus (+) – in % of GDP 2013; October 2, 2014 2014, Update March 2016

Maastricht criteria 2014, Update March 2016

Maastricht criteria HICP, Annual average rate of change in %; 2014 2015, Update March 2016

Maastricht criteria Maastricht criterion bond yields 2015; March 2016

Regional policy and regional statistics Cohesion policy aims to improve economic, social and territorial cohesion. These goals are identified in the EU treaty and part of the Europe 2020 strategy to promote smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Cohesion Policy will play a key role in achieving the 2020 objectives. A set of indicators, grouped according to the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy, is used to measure cohesion at the sub-national level. 

Regional policy and regional statistics

Regional policy and regional statistics 2014, Update March 2016

Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI) PEEIs represent a comprehensive set of infra-annual macroeconomic statistics. The list of PEEIs was defined by a communication of the Commission to the European parliament and the Council. Monthly PEEIs aim at providing data for short-term economic analysis, which are of particularly high importance for economic and monetary policy. PEEIs describe the economic and labour market situation as well as price developments in the euro area and the European Union.

Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI)- March 2016

Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI)- March 2016

Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI)- March 2016

Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI)- March 2016

Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI)- March 2016

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure As a result of the economic and dept crises in 2008 and the following years a number of new EU Policy initiatives were taken in 2010. One of them was the establishment of a new Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) focusing on the identification of emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at an early stage.

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure The MIP is accompanied by a scoreboard consisting of a small number of relevant, practical, simple, measurable, and available macroeconomic and macro financial indicators. The set of indicators covers internal as well as external imbalances. The scoreboard, combined with appropriate economic judgement, is the basis for the Alert Mechanism Report, prepared annually by the European Commission in December/January.

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure The MIP scoreboard indicators should be regarded neither as policy targets nor policy instruments. The interpretation should be supplemented by economic judgment and country-specific expertise. The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may evolve over time. The tables of the MIP scoreboard include thresholds. Indicators beyond the thresholds are ‘highlighted’.

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Macroeconomic Balance Procedure November 2015

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Statistical Annex of Alert Mechanism Report 2016, October 2015

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Statistical Annex of Alert Mechanism Report 2016, October 2015

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Statistical Annex of Alert Mechanism Report 2016, October 2015

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Statistical Annex of Alert Mechanism Report 2016, October 2015

Europe 2020 strategy

Europe 2020 strategy

Europe 2020 strategy

Summary “Somehow econometricians, theorists, and economic analysts of all stripes have lost essential communication with the compilers and synthesizers of their data. As a consequence, popular discourse, policy making, and basic principles of economics have suffered inordinate confusion” (Eisner, 1989). “In too many instances sophisticated statistical analysis is performed on a data set whose exact meaning and validity are unknown to the author" (Leontief, 1971).

Summary “A science that purports to deal with the real world but that ignores its empirical and observational side is likely to appear a rather empty and unproductive discipline” (Evans, Hoffenberg, 1955). These statements addressing economics as an empirical science also hold for economic policy making. Economic policy aiming at firm roots in empirical evidence needs to take the specific features of the available data into account.

Summary Data often do not correspond to the analytical objective in mind. They are even not always good approximations of the concepts of economic theory which are used in the public discussion. It is the adequacy of the data to be reliably combined what makes them ‘relevant’ for most exercises. The criteria ‘consistency’ and ‘coherence’ are necessary conditions to make the results ‘relevant’ to economists and policy makers who are not just interested in a single variable.

Summary The obvious trade-off between the ‘best solution’ for a statistical project seen in an isolated way and a ‘consistent and coherent solution’ seen from the perspective of the system of business statistics must be taken seriously. There is a clear trade-off between what can be directly observed in an unambiguous way and the regional detail. Globalisation already led to some awareness, although the problem is not limited to the ‘multi-national’ level.

Summary

Summary Some characteristics such as employment can be rather easily attributed to a nation and even to a region, but this is not in the same way the case for all inputs of a unit and thus for value added. The share of units which are only economically active in one nation/one region differs significantly between nations and regions. As a consequence, the shares of directly observable phenomena and the complementary ‘model content’ also significantly differ between nations and regions.

Summary Adequate use of the data requires the availability of detailed metadata. Such metadata should not be limited to the documentation of the concepts but needs to describe the various processes used in the data-generating process in detail. Statisticians should try to avoid unrealistic expectations among the users of their output.

Summary In the EU characterized by free movement of goods and services and free movement of labour and capital, ‘national statistics’ have a different nature compared to the situation before the European unification. On the one hand the phenomena to be observed and their institutional background have changed: simplifications and heuristic assumptions made in the past are perhaps not longer acceptable.

Summary On the other hand, statistical results play a central operational role in the EU. Consequences for the statistical system are: Most of the work of statisticians is based on legal provisions, and compliance with these provisions has to be monitored. Top priority is given to international comparability. Independence of the people working in the statistical system from undue political influence is of utmost importance.

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