The Problem: Our Solutions:

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Presentation transcript:

The Problem: Our Solutions: PV output fluctuates (80% dropouts in 5 sec) TEP will have 250 MW of PV by 2013 TEP needs forecasts to ramp up generators No forecasts are good enough yet Our Solutions: Advanced Numerical Weather Model Irradiance Network and Velocity Model Cloud movie analysis

The Problem: ACC Regulations require Big Solar. AC Power (kW) Aug 9 Aug 10 time ACC Regulations require Big Solar. Now Utility Operators need Forecasts.

Our Solution #1 Our Solution #2 Numerical Weather Model Forecast Good for: 2-hr averages 40 hours in advance Our Solution #2 100 Rooftops + Wind Forecast Good for: 10 minute detail 1-2 hours in advance

Distribution of ~280 MW 34 25 70 MW DG 6.4 5 12 5 23 50 10 35