PAF 101 Module 5, Lecture 6 “There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.” -Niccolo Machiavelli Why is it so hard to change things? Forces of stability are always more powerful than the forces of change. People with money do not want change.

Class Agenda Announcements Some Advice on Prince Charts Strategies Change in South Africa Assignments

Extra Credit Opportunity 12/2: Citizenship and Civic Engagement Action Plan Presentations, 9:30- 11:30am in the Maxwell Auditorium Get 6 points if you go for the whole two hours! Kristen will be there with a sheet to sign in and out

Community Service Final community service form due 12/5 at the beginning of class at 12:45 Short responses should be typed on a separate sheet of paper (if not in PAF 110) and stapled If late, points will be deducted as they are on modules.

5 Hour Requirement Grading Policies -35 Points Service outside Onondaga County or at SU Not at an appropriate site -15 Points Did not attach short answer questions questions (unless in PAF 110) Did not get approval for a service site however it was an acceptable form of community service -5 Points Essay responses not thorough Did not attach form of permission however, did completed perspective form or emailed Community Service Director NOTE: Students do not GAIN 35 points from fulfilling the 5 hour requirement, they can only LOSE points

Dale Carnegie Fireside Chat Featuring Griff

Competition Points Group # Points A 24 B 22 C 20 D 14 E 11 H 8 F 7 G 6 J 5 I Winners Losers As of 11/18/16

Quick Review of Prince Charts Be clear on proposed policy and government unit implementing it Assume the policy forecasted will happen by end of 2017 Players for 2017---So Trump and not Obama is President and House and Senate are controlled by Republicans Learn as much as you can about the policy and the issue position, power and priority of the players

Strategy Exercises in Chapter 10 Come up one of the players in the Prince Chart who will take action to increase the likelihood that your policy will be implemented Come up with the action and discuss how it will change the Prince Chart

SU tuition increases should be held to the rate of inflation Prince Chart SU tuition increases should be held to the rate of inflation Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 -80 Student Association +4 2 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 +8 Alumni Association +1 Probability of Implementation: 44 / 224 = 20%

Choosing A Player Firm Issue Position High Priority High Power Select Player to execute a strategy Choosing A Player Firm Issue Position High Priority High Power Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 -80 Student Association +4 2 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 +8 Alumni Association +1 Note: Look at 10.1

Exercise 10.1 Player Analysis Player Implementing the Strategy Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat

S.W.O.T. Analysis for Your Player Strength Weakness   Capabilities? Competitive advantages? Resources, Assets, People? Experience, knowledge, data? Financial reserves, likely returns? Marketing - reach, awareness? Innovative aspects? Location and geographical? Processes, systems, IT, communications? Cultural, attitudinal, behavioral Gaps in capabilities? Lack of competitive strength? Reputation, presence and reach? Financials? Own known vulnerabilities? Timescales, deadlines and pressures? Effects on core activities, distraction? Reliability of data, plan predictability? Morale, commitment, leadership? Accreditations, etc.? Opportunity Threat Market developments? Technology development and innovation? Regional influences? New markets, vertical, horizontal? Niche target markets? Geographical, export, import? Information and research? Partnerships, agencies, distribution? Volumes, production, economies? Political effects? Legislative effects? Environmental effects? IT developments? Market demand? New technologies, services, ideas? Vital contracts and partners? Sustaining internal capabilities? Obstacles faced? Sustainable financial backing? Economy - home, abroad?

Thinking About Strategies A strategy for Exercises 10.1-10.4 is a specific action your chosen player will take to move the probability close to his or her issue position. Making arguments using research and emotion are a given and therefore can not be your strategy Be careful with “arguments” point on slide-remind students that they can’t use arguments as a strategy in their module

Thinking About Strategies Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 -80 Student Association +4 2 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 +8 Alumni Association +1 Be careful with “arguments” point on slide-remind students that they can’t use arguments as a strategy in their module What actions can you take to change: Issue Position Power Priorities

Change Issue Position of Players With: Lowest issue position (best to start with) Highest priority Highest power Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 -80 Student Association +4 2 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 +8 Alumni Association +1 Note: Look at 10.3 WRC Example

Threats must: Target a specific player Be credible Not push other players to oppose you Not raise priority of the players that oppose your position Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 -80 Student Association +4 2 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 +8 Alumni Association +1

Promises must be: Credible Not illegal Specific A.K.A horse trading, back scratching, quid pro quo, trade-offs Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 -80 Student Association +4 2 +32 Dean of Financial Aid +2 1 +8 Alumni Association +1

A compromise is taking less than you wanted. Specific Appealing to the player Credible Not throwing the baby out with the bath water

Actions to take to change your player’s power: Numbers Money Long terms and very difficult Allies

How the greatest change agent of the 20th century used the Prince System            

Facts About South Africa Population About 13% White, 75% Black, 9% Mixed, and 3% Indian in 1980’s 16th Century Dutch Colonize and Become Afrikaners 1910 - British Takeover After Beating Up Afrikaners 1948 - National Party Establishes Apartheid As Law 1950’s-1990’s - Organized and Violent Opposition 1994 - Multi-Racial Regime Headed By Mandela Takes Power

Facts about Mandela Joins African National Congress (ANC) in 1942 Jailed in 1963 Released in 1990* Becomes President in 1994 *Prince System born in early 1970’s

98/373= 26% Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart Probability of Implementation: “One person, one vote in South Africa” Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince ANC +5 1 5 +25 Communist Party Pan African Congress +2 2 +4 Liberal Party National Party -4 -100 Conservative Parties -5 3 -75 West and Int’l Business +3 +9 Military 4 Inkatha +10 One man, one vote. A little confusing. Who are these people? Explain. Probability of Implementation: 98/373= 26%

238/313= 76% Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart “One person, one vote in South Africa” Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince ANC +5 3 5 +75 Communist Party 1 +25 Pan African Congress +2 2 +4 Liberal Party National Party +50 Conservative Parties -5 -75 West and Int’l Business +3 +9 Military +1 4 +20 Inkatha +30 Probability of Implementation: 238/313= 76%

Facts About South Africa Timing is everything, as in the case of all change Decline of South African Economy Building of International Pressure Fall of Soviet Union Growing fear of civil war by all sides

Facts About South Africa Major challenges were overcome by threats, promises, horse trading, and compromise Cohesion of “friends” – ANC, PAC, Lib. Party, Communist Party, Inkatha, International Business and Most Countries Building Trust with “enemies” – National Party, Military, Conservative Parties Note: Prospect of better business opportunities combines with threat of civil war and loss of political power worked enough to maintain discipline in the ANC without it losing power to other groups. Prospects of better business and less violence plus promise that the ANC could maintain discipline worked enough to allow DeKlerk to maneuver Conservative parties in. British culture of compromise, with Afrikaner demand for order and business and African and Asian cultures that value community served as an underlying glue.

Lessons About Change Change is very slow and very hard Macro social, economic, and political trends have to be properly aligned Fear is the most powerful source of change, greed is the second most powerful Capacity for compromise comes from culture, circumstance, and leadership

Political Strategy Consultant Frank J. Lazarski President United Way of Central New York 518 James Street P.O. Box 2129 Syracuse, New York 13220 315-428-2201 Flazarski@unitedway-cny.org

For Next Class Review what you wrote for 9.2-9.5 Complete the exercises in Chapter 10 Start thinking about 11.1 Community service forms due on Monday, December 5th by 12:45!