MST Evaluation April 2016

Evaluation principles To provide evidence of the extent to which the aims of the MST programme are being met. A ‘before and after’ method is used to compare outcomes during the 6 or 12 months immediately before the MST intervention with the same time period post-intervention. There are limitations to this method, mainly that with no control group it is not possible to say definitively that the changes in outcomes are as a direct result or cause of the intervention but probability can be used to give likely impact

Summary of Cohort As of 30th September 2015… Evaluation cohort 87 Children referred into MST 44 not suitable for MST Evaluation cohort 43 taken on & completed MST 26 completed over 12 months ago As of 31st March 2016 17 completed 6 to 12 months ago

Summary of Cohort Female Male 47% 53% Female Male The age profile of children at referral or start of the programme shows the majority of children completing the programme were between 14 and 16 with more boys (23) than girls (20). Average length of involvement was 122 days with the range from 36 to 161 days

Characteristics of the Cohort The outcomes measured are split into three main areas: Social care: the level of need and time spent at that level School: absence and behaviour Police: number of arrests and missing from home incidents 43 children are included in the evaluation cohort i.e. universal services - child in need – child protection and Looked After Improvements in these outcomes in the post programme period compared to the pre-programme period will give evidence of the effectiveness and value of the programme.

Social Care The number of children with social care involvement has decreased after MST involvement has finished. As time goes on more children’s cases have been closed to social care. This is very different to children who were referred to MST but not taken on. For these there is less of a decrease in social care involvement and more escalating to becoming Looked After

Social Care For Manchester City Council reducing the demand and level of need in social care is a key outcome from the MST programme A high level summary of the MST cohort shows that fewer children have been escalated to a higher level of need following 3 months post MST, there have also been more children de-escalated to a lower level of need following MST The graphs show the changes in level of need in more detail. The number of cases escalated following involvement in the MST programme generally peaked in the first 3 months following the end of the programme but there were then fewer cases escalated after this period both compared to this period and the period before the programme. The change in case show the most dramatic change in the number of children de-escalated to a lower level of need following the end of involvement in the MST programme

Social Care Comparing the 3 months before MST with the 3 months after, the number of days children were placed in residential care homes more than halved from 386 days to 181 days – approx. 30 weeks The number of days that children are placed in residential care homes drops sharply following MST and placement with parents or person with parental responsibility increases. Alongside this there is an increase in the number of children no longer looked after Of the 9 children who had been in a residential placement in the 3 months prior to commencing MST or at some point during MST: 1 returned home but later went back into residential care and then independent living 1 returned home but later went back into residential care and is now in foster care 7 were discharged from being LAC and did not become looked after again within the evaluation period The average cost of placements per week is £2,964 in LA homes and £2,907 in private/voluntary homes – “Children’s homes Data Pack” Dec 2014 - DfE

School Absence There have been improvements in the overall rates of absence from schools for children who have been through the MST programme. Absence varies by type of school – the graph shows the biggest improvement in absence rates for children in mainstream schools whilst for children in PRUs there is an improvement Overall there has been an improvement, mainly through the stopping of the increasing trend seen pre MST. Absence rates show more improvement as time since the end of the programme increases. Absence rates tend to increase in the higher year groups (shown by the grey bars on the graph). The MST cohort also show this pattern with improvements in absence generally seen with children in the years 8 and 9. The numbers of children in years 7 and 11 are very small so strong conclusions should not be drawn from these figures.

School Exclusions The number of children being excluded from school highlight good improvements Children are excluded from school for poor behaviour so it seems reasonable to assume that the drop in exclusions represents improvements in the children’s behaviours There has been a large drop in the number of children being temporarily excluded from school post MST intervention. For the cohort not taken on to the MST programme there has also been a decline but not as large There has also been a decrease in the number of exclusions from a peak in the 3 months prior to MST involvement. No children have been permanently excluded from school since going through the MST programme

Crime

Missing From Home Incidents The graph shows a distinct difference between children who have completed MSTand those that were referred to but not taken on by MST post completion/referral to MST. The sharp drop in numbers of children missing from home is sustained

Cost Benefit Analysis MST with 50% effect 2 months in care payback 6 months £1.61 £1.91 3 years 12 months £1.64 £2.10 2 years This assumes that MST prevents a single out of home LAC placement for 2 months, that 50% of the improved outcomes are attributed to MST and the improved outcomes will persist over 5 years. These assumptions are deliberately cautious and therefore could be said to show the minimum benefit that MST is having.

Conclusions The evidence demonstrates some good successes for the MST programme. The cost benefit analysis shows more benefit is being realised for the investment made by MCC, with the payback period being 3 years. Outcomes have been improved in many different areas including behaviour and attendance at school, lower level of social care need, lower arrests for criminal behaviour, and less missing from home incidents. The improvements are sustained over the 12 months that data is currently available for. The children will continue to be tracked to further evaluate outcomes over longer periods of time

Any questions?? For Leo