Global Grains Food & Feed Conference Global & India Grains Scenario

Global Corn Scenario : World still flushed with enough Corn stocks. 31 Mn tns of drop is global corn production is still not huge ? Supply side situation looks pretty much okay. Leave the numbers to be discussed by the next speakers. Is there a story in world corn today, seems difficult unless Argentinian weather concerns of dryness pull Soya crop hence corn follows !!!

Global Corn - Area, Production & Yields - 31 MMT Major decline: US, China, Brazil & Ukraine Reason: Unfavorable weather

Global Corn Stocks - Declining Global corn end stocks likely to decline by 9.7% y-o-y to 207 MMT lowest in last 3 years, thus supporting the prices

How does this impact Indian Corn scenario ? Indian Rabi crop sowing has been excellent. North east part was impacted by floods last year and hence ground water levels are good, production expected higher than last year . Being election year, will government buy corn also at MSP or implement Bhavanter scheme in corn also in Rabi crops. If yes, we might see some potential to export Corn like soya else prices in Corn are likely to remain subdued. Jun/July shipments being asked at USD 210 CNF SE Asian countries.

India Corn Consumption Trend Feed Consumption growing at CAGR of 8% FSI Consumption growing at CAGR of 2%

How to fulfill our increasing demand?? India Corn S&D Scenario 2016/17 2017/18 E 2018/19 F 2019/20 F Supply 27.19 27.00 27.41 26.89 Demand 25.59 26.30 27.74 29.29 Surplus/Deficit 1.60 0.70 -0.34 -2.40 Will India be able to increase our domestic corn supply by increasing yields? Is adoption of Non GMO seeds will become a compulsion to increase yields? Will India become Net importer of corn from 2018/19 onwards?

Indian Corn Trade Scenario Since, last 3 years we are seeing a shift in the Indian corn trade scenario

Are we heading towards Net Agri Importer?

Global Wheat Scenario

Global Wheat Scenario : World has seen an upswing in wheat production across the world, Aus shortfall was well taken care of by huge rise in Russian crop. World ending stocks grow by 15 Mn tns.Stock to use ratio has also increased. Black sea countries followed by Europe have emerged as new wheat production hubs for the world this reducing dependence on US and Aus origins.

Global Wheat - Area, Production & Yields 6.6 MMT Increase: RUS & EU

Major Wheat Exporters Production – 17/18 vs. 16/17 EU (+6.4 MMT) 151.6 VS 145.3 MMT LY RUS (12.5 MMT) 85 VS 72.5 MMT LY CAN (-1.7 MMT) 30 VS 31.7 MMT LY UKR (- 0.3 MMT) 26.5 VS 26.8 MMT LY US (-15.5 MMT) 47.4 VS 62.8 MMT LY AUS (- 8.9 MMT) 21.5 VS 30.4 MMT LY ARG (-0.9 MMT) 17.5 VS 18.4 MMT LY Major Exporters Wheat Production (MMT) 2016/17 2017/18 17/18 vs. 16/17 391.5 363.2 -28.2

Global Wheat Trade Scenario Country 2016/2017 2017/2018 Change Argentina 13.8 11.9 -1.9 Australia 22.6 16.0 -6.6 Canada 20.2 22.0 1.8 EU 27.3 27.0 -0.3 Kazakhstan 7.4 7.5 0.1 Mexico 1.1 1.4 0.3 Russia 27.8 35.0 7.2 Ukraine 18.1 17.0 -1.1 US 28.7 26.5 -2.2 Others 16.3 16.5 0.2 Total 183.4 180.8 -2.5

Global Wheat Stocks - Increasing +15 MMT Larger wheat stocks are mostly with nations like China (128 MMT) which exports minuscule quantity Even India wheat stocks likely to be around 10 MMT which is hardly exportable

Indian Wheat Trade Scenario Indian trade scenario is changing in the recent years – a shift from exporter to importer of wheat

Question : How much India will import this year ????