Uncontrolled copy when printed 21/09/2018 Wargaming in the UK Slide 1 Colin Marston Dstl’s Wargaming Team DSTL/PUB098428 Disclaimer: This presentation represents the personal view of the authors and is in no way representative of official UK MOD policy. © Crown copyright 2016 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 21/09/2018 Wargame spectrum and application Long-term strategic National strategic Theatre strategic Operational Tactical Minimal adjudication Free adjudication Semi-free adjudication Rigid adjudication Slide 2 ‘Wicked’ problems Bounded problems © Crown copyright 2016 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 21/09/2018 Wargame spectrum and application Context Long-term strategic National strategic Theatre strategic Operational Tactical Seminar games Computer assisted games Matrix games Minimal adjudication Free adjudication Semi-free adjudication Rigid adjudication Free Kriegsspiel On this slide the top blue line represents the different levels within the problem space.  The red, middle line represents types of adjudication.  The bottom green line indicates the different levels of complexity.  On top of these axes we have the types of wargames that we employ in Dstl and across the MOD.  Please note that these techniques are not limited to their positions on the axes.  We find that the techniques on the left of the spectrum generally provide more opportunity for original thought and creativity (/imagination). In addition, methods at this end of the spectrum generally provide an opportunity for doing lots of Courses of Action with little depth – so essentially short games that might last a couple of hours to a day.  The methods on the right can provide increasing depth, but are often slower to set up and run. These methods generally employ more rigorous and precise techniques – although that does not necessarily mean that they give more accurate outputs.  All of these approaches have their merits, some being better at trying to answer certain questions than others. So, when appropriate, we try to use a combination of different approaches. Slide 3: ‘Wargaming Spectrum’ Rigid Kriegsspiel ‘Wicked’ problems Bounded problems Implications © Crown copyright 2016 Dstl

Essential elements of a wargame Uncontrolled copy when printed 21/09/2018 Essential elements of a wargame Aims and objectives (What is the purpose?) Determining the setting / scenario Collecting the relevant data Selecting and setting up the simulation(s) (manual, computer or mixture) Determining the rules, procedures / processes and adjudication Identify participants / players (& supporting personnel & SMEs) required (& the decisions they make) Testing and rehearsals Information capture and listing assumptions Confirm player roles Delivering the event Playing the game Conducting in-game analysis Conducting after action review(s) to cover observations, insights and lessons Conducting post-game analysis (if required) Slide 4 ‘Essential elements of a wargame’: Now, the type of game that we use is just one part of the process. This slide highlights the other factors that we need to consider. There’s no fixed order in the way we tackle these – it’s an iterative process and depends on the question. The wargame is not the simulation. The simulation is but a subset of a wargame.   Effective communication and transparency are crucial throughout the whole of the wargaming process and it is crucial that everyone – from the players to the customers – are involved at the relevant stages.  The Wargame is not synonymous with ‘simulation’ Aqua Book Macpherson Report © Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

Wargaming vs. Analytical processes Uncontrolled copy when printed 21/09/2018 Wargaming vs. Analytical processes Human-in-the-loop methods to generate understanding and where the human is the focus of the work. Wargaming Team & DSA Division Limits of applicability of current knowledge reached Capture knowledge Slide 5/6: ‘Observations, lessons and closing remarks’ The optimal approach to providing decision-support is often to fuse the information pertaining from both human-in-the-loop and non-human-in-the-loop techniques.     There are many different types of wargames and careful consideration should be given as to which type, or types, of game are most appropriate for a particular problem.  Also wargaming should often NOT be used in isolation but as part of a broader analytical tool and / or iterative process that incorporates a range of different techniques. Constructive methods, such as simulation based on understanding – e.g. via algorithms or rule-bases. © Crown copyright 2016 Dstl

Uncontrolled copy when printed 21/09/2018 Closing remarks Slide 6 2016 ISIS Crisis Matrix game © Crown copyright 2016 Dstl