Complex adaptive systems can self organise spontaneously 1. continuous and dynamic interaction within and between levels of hierarchy 2. Non-linear interactions that are unpredictable; the scale of effects can’t be predicted for example. 3. Positive and negative feedbacks. Unpredictable time lags 4. Large numbers of elements 5 open and closed systems 6. Co-evolution. 7. Unpredictable patterns emerge which become attractors influence future directions. 8. Attractors may be orderly or chaotic. 9. Far from equilibrium. 10. No single entity has complete knowledge of the system. 11. Path dependence. 12. adaptation through learning and imagination. 13. Complexity catastrophe

The global economy as a complex adaptive system   The direction of the economy emerges from the interaction of many dispersed and interdependent units (firms, institutions, people, demographics, urbanization, cultures, religions, ethnicities personalities and so on) in parallel. The action of any one unit depends on the state and action of others units. The global economy has many levels of interaction; coalitions at many levels ranging from teams to business units and mergers. Tangled interactions (associations, communications) occur within and between levels. Coalitions are building blocks. They are recombined and revised continually as the system accumulates experience and adapts. There are many niches created by new technologies that can be exploited by adaptation. Thus large and small local and global firms coexist and coevolve on the global economy; glocalisation. There is no universal super-competitor, such as the USA or China or massive corporation or institution that can fill all niches; often they are helpless, global terrorism for example. There are so many niches serving many purposes and needs the system operates far from equilibrium or optimum. Despite the talk about progress and world growth recent developments have seen a resurgence of real politique; struggle for resources, struggle for dominance

(current system state) T Past Future upside System state possible futures possible causes probable futures Probable causes possible causes possible futures Now (current system state) T downside robindcmatthews.com

Global macro conditions Payoffs to stakeholder groups Tangible and intangible Assets (including Reputation) payoffs Competitors and co-operators Outer dynamics Inner dynamics Global macro conditions grammar MARCS Rules, laws, regulations, structures, architectures, routines. Mindsets, culture, norms, values, habits, moods. Intelligence rational and emotional. Formal and Informal, Inner and Outer. 9/21/2018 robindcmatthews.com

payoffs Inner dynamics Outer GRAMMAR SYSTEM STATE 9/21/2018 robindcmatthews.com

(0) P grammar OD ID PAYOFFS (P) INNER (ID) DYNAMICS The system state is a chaotic attractor SDIC P P (0) OODOO I OD ID INNER (ID) DYNAMICS OUTER (OD) DYNAMICS 9/21/2018 robindcmatthews.com

DISCUSSION What are the most important factors affecting business development in Joshkar Ola? Use the meta model in your presentation. 9/21/2018 robindcmatthews.com

THE FUTURE 1. What is the future outlook and 2 THE FUTURE 1.What is the future outlook and 2. What are the risks for business in Joshkar Ola? Use the diagram belowin your presentation 9/21/2018 robindcmatthews.com