“War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz ( )

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Presentation transcript:

“War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) War in History

Why War? Resources Territory Land Access to the sea Ethnicity Religion Ideology

Major War Event From To Low High Warring States Era, China BC 475 An Shi Rebellion, China 756 763 36 m Mongol Conquests, Europe, Asia 1207 1279 30 m 60 m Thirty Years War 1618 1648 3 m 11.5 m Napoleonic Wars 1804 1815 3.5 m 16 m Taiping Rebellion, China 1851 1864 20 m 50 m US Civil War 1861 1865 618,000 970,000 Russian Civil War 1917 1921 5m 9 m WW I (high includes Spanish Flu) 1914 1918 15 m 66 m  

More Major War Chinese Civil War 1945 1949 1.3 m 6. 1 m WW II 1939 Viet Nam War 1975 2.5 m 5 m Korean War 1950 1953 3.5 m Nigerian Civil War 1967 1970 1 m Afghan Civil War 1979 Present 1.5 m 2.0 m Iran-Iraq War 1980 1988 1.0 m Congo Civil War 1994 1997 800,000 Second Congo War 1998 2003 3.8m 13.8 4

Causes of War and Peace Human Nature Balance of power Power Transition/Long Cycle Nuclear Revolution Interdependence Democratic Peace

1. Human Nature? Jean-Jacques Rousseau 1712-1788 Thomas Hobbes 1588-1679 Jean-Jacques Rousseau 1712-1788

London 1940

Stalingrad 1943

Berlin 1945

Tokyo 1945

Warsaw 1945

Bergen-Belson

Hiroshima

2. Balance of Power Concert of Europe 1815-1914 England Russia Prussia/Germany France Austria Hungary

Bipolarity The Cold War Balance of Power Israel Syria/Egypt Ethiopia Somalia Taiwan China S. Korea N. Korea S. Viet Nam N. Viet Nam W. Berlin E. Berlin W. Germany E. Germany Britain/France/Japan Poland/Czech US USSR

3. Long Cycle Theory (Power Transition) Hegemonic War Winner becomes Hegemon Hegemon rules system Hegemon weakens Challenger Rises 16

Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914 Power War England WW I begins Time Dominance Decline War England WW I begins 1792-1815 1850 1914 Napoleonic Wars decine begins Time 17

Long Cycle Five: 1914-? 1914-1945 1973 decline 20?? begins Time Power Dominance Decline War U.S. US v. China? 1914-1945 1973 decline 20?? begins Time Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, University of Washington Press, 1987. 18

4. Nuclear Revolution Hiroshima Nagasaki

The Problems? North Korea: Three nuclear tests Iran: No tests yet, but October 9, 2006 May 25, 2009 February 12, 2013 Iran: No tests yet, but 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate 2013 IAEA Report 2013 BBC Analysis

Irrationality? Saddam Hussein Ahmadinejad Kim Jong-Un

5. Interdependence World Peace?

World Peace? Wal-Mart China

Welcome to China

Welcome to the US

Welcome to New York

6. Democratization Map of World Democracies from Freedom House Democracies don’t fight each other But democracies do fight others

Emerging Democracies? Hitler, Tojo, Milosevic

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