Urban development scenarios and theme implementation Chris Jacobs-Crisioni. June 24, 2013

This presentation Two scenarios of urban development: are we on the right track? How we model the effect of funding for urban regeneration How we model the effect of funding for transport network development How we model the effect of funding for other transport means

Policy scenarios “Compact development” Difference with reference: Europe-wide policies enforcing that urban development may only occur adjacent to existing urban areas Expected: same or less urban development than the reference scenario “Business as Usual” Difference with reference: Land consumption per capita is larger than reference scenario. Expected: substantial urban development.

Like this? (example: Brussels)

Like this? (example: Prague)

Modelling the effect of urban regeneration funding Particular areal selection in which urban regeneration has effect Assumed to cause an increase in the speed of housing supply change with a fixed cost of early supply change in a pixel Do this until the funds for urban regeneration are exhausted in a region No effect on attractiveness assumed

Network developments Recorded changes Derived from merged product of 2005, and future transtools network provided by IPTS Yet unknown changes Those links that are not upgraded, according to the provided transtools data.

Recorded changes: not just upgrades

Effect of recorded network changes

What about yet unknown funded projects? We assume investments increase effective speeds Expected effect of transport investments in regions: x% increase in effective speeds

Allocating unknown network investments Local road Trunk road Motorway Sample of EU projects per lane* Eu 2.1M Eu 2.5M Modelled costs per km of road** Eu 3.0M Eu 4.2M Eu 10.0M * Compiled by presenter ** Local roads assumed to be 70% of the costs of a trunk road (according to CE Delft report)

Implemented rules: the right track? Links with the largest flows are upgraded Costs of recorded upgrades are taken from the budget Upgrades to the following speeds Motorways: 130 km/u National roads: 100 km/u Local and regional: 80 km/u New roads and supposedly upgraded roads not given additional upgrades Additional: Largest flows x share of foreign transport (not yet implemented)

Modelled transport flows to allocate investments Insert map of flows

Current results Roadtype Fundable kilometers Allocated upgrades Motorway 239 km 149 km National roads 1823 km 1020 km Local/regional roads 3258 km 1851 km Insert map of upgrades. Possible solutions: more refined flow allocation mechanism (to ensure that all roads ‘get’ traffic); upgrading to local zones.

Other transport related funding Cycle tracks and urban transportation: fixed 5% increase in Pi of existing urban areas (increases population densities). Railways: attempt to model addition of railways on total accessibility (but means to weight influence of roads and rails is difficult). Fallback: a fixed increase in attractivity of urban areas that have a station with increased connectivity