Welcome to CEBI Fall Summit General Session
Agenda Thursday 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm General Session 2:00 pm – 5:30 pm National Boards 6:00 pm – 7:00 pm Reception 7:00 pm – 9:00 pm Dinner Friday 7:00 am – 8:30 am Breakfast 8:30 am – 3:00 pm National Boards (incl. Lunch @ Noon) Thursday 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm General Session 2:00 pm – 5:30 pm National Boards 6:00 pm – 7:00 pm Reception 7:00 pm – 9:00 pm Dinner
Agenda Friday 3:30 pm – 5:30 pm Roundtables
Roundtables “Who Moved My Cheese?” Carlos Alvarez -- President, Sun State Landscaping “Selecting and De-selecting People” Tim Gase – President, Peerless Saw Company “Plan for Success” Dave Crockett -- President/CEO, CenTec, Inc. “Providing Products & Services to International Markets” Rob Kornfeld — President, Hi-Tech Furnace Systems, Inc. “Transition of Ownership and Control Between Generations" Fritz Hoffmann -- President, Lunar Tool & Mold
Agenda Friday 3:30 pm – 5:30 pm Roundtables 6:00 pm – 7:00 pm Reception 7:30 pm – 9:30 pm Dinner Saturday 7:00 am – 8:30 am Breakfast 8:30 am – Noon Executive Briefings
Economic Forecasting Forum What’s Your Crystal Ball Saying? Sensitivity to initial conditions is popularly known as the "butterfly effect", so called because of the title of a paper given by Edward Lorenz in 1972 to the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C. entitled Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.
Economic Indicators Interest Rates CPI (Inflation) Crude Oil Prices Manufacturing Housing Starts GDP Growth Stock Market Performance
Prime Interest Rate
Consumer Price Index
Crude Oil Prices
Manufacturing Index
NAM/IW Mfg. Indices Q4 2000 Q4 2003 Q3 2007
NAPM (ISM) Mfg. Survey
Housing Starts (US) 485 K 333 K Avg. = 358 K Thousands, per quarter
US Gross Domestic Product % Growth vs. Prior Quarter, Annualized
NASDAQ, S&P 500, DJIA Jan03 Nov07
What’s your 2008 Forecast? Strong Growth Moderate Growth Flat Contraction (1 Qtr. GDP ) Recession (2 Consec. Qtrs. GDP )
What’s your biggest concern for the economy in 2008?
How will you take advantage of an upside or protect yourself from a downside?
Is there a way to make money in the current period of uncertainty?
http://www. forex-brokerage-firms http://www.forex-brokerage-firms.com/economicindicators/economic-indicators.htm
Economic Forecasting Forum What’s Your Crystal Ball Saying? Sensitivity to initial conditions is popularly known as the "butterfly effect", so called because of the title of a paper given by Edward Lorenz in 1972 to the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C. entitled Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.
2008 Events
Rancho Valencia Resort and Spa Rancho Santa Fe, CA CEBI Winter Retreat Rancho Valencia Resort and Spa Rancho Santa Fe, CA February 24-26, 2008 CEBI Winter Retreat Rancho Valencia Resort and Spa Rancho Santa Fe, CA February 24-26, 2008 September 9 - 11, 2006
The Blackwell Hotel & Conference Center CEBI Spring Summit The Blackwell Hotel & Conference Center Columbus, OH April 24 – 25, 2008
Virginia Crossings Resort Glen Allen, VA (Richmond) CEBI Fall Summit Virginia Crossings Resort Glen Allen, VA (Richmond) November 13 – 14, 2008
Agenda Thursday 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm General Session 2:00 pm – 5:30 pm National Boards 6:00 pm – 7:00 pm Reception 7:00 pm – 9:00 pm Dinner
CEBI Fall Summit