RSE: the ghosts of schemes past, present and yet to come Richard Whatman, Charlotte Bedford and Richard Bedford

The RSE system

A scheme for a Pacific world

RSE source countries Pacific Asia Country 2007/08 2011/12 2015/16 Fiji 92 Kiribati 69 142 162 Nauru 20 PNG 6 68 Samoa 647 1162 1454 Solomons 238 407 590 Tonga 805 1398 1687 Tuvalu 99 88 64 Vanuatu 1698 2412 3726 Total Pacific 3556 5615 7863 Country 2007/08 2011/12 2015/16 India 41 15 35 Indonesia 249 299 321 Malaysia 364 317 335 Philippines 80 74 67 Taiwan 31 20 Thailand 195 658 637 Total Asia 929 1394 1415

RSE throughout New Zealand

RSE conference

The RSE system

A trans-Tasman perspective By June 30 around 16,000 workers will have arrived during the last financial year to take up seasonal employment under the RSE and SWP schemes. 14,000 (88 percent) of these workers will have come from 9 Pacific countries, and 11,000 (68 percent) of them from two countries: Tonga and Vanuatu. 86 percent of them will have been males, and 80 percent of the males will have been aged between 20- 39 years.

Shares of males aged 20-39 years 2016/17 2020/21 Country SWP RSE Combined Fiji 0.11 0.19 0.30 Kiribati 0.25 0.47 0.71 Nauru 1.32 0.87 2.19 PNG 0.01 0.004 Samoa 0.86 4.53 5.39 Solomons 0.14 0.44 Timor Leste 0.18 0.00 Tonga 14.05 9.35 23.40 Tuvalu 1.37 2.74 4.11 Vanuatu 2.64 5.96 8.60 Total 0.23 0.33 0.55 Country SWP RSE Combined Fiji 0.26 0.22 0.48 Kiribati 0.55 1.03 Nauru 3.29 1.01 4.30 PNG 0.02 0.005 0.03 Samoa 2.05 5.05 7.10 Solomons 0.34 0.33 0.67 Timor Leste 0.40 0.00 Tonga 34.94 10.85 45.80 Tuvalu 3.07 2.88 5.95 Vanuatu 5.91 6.23 12.15 Total 0.53 0.36 0.89

Some sustainability questions Heavy reliance of SWP on Tonga – 47% of seasonal workers in 2016/17 (28% from Vanuatu, growing) Heavy reliance of RSE on Vanuatu – 44% of seasonal workers in 2016/17 (21% each from Tonga and Samoa, stable) 23% of Tonga’s males 20-39 years employed by SWP and RSE in 2016/17 – could be 47% by 2020/21. Sustainable? 9% of Vanuatu’s males 20-39 yrs employed by SWP and RSE in 2016/17 – could be 12% by 2020/21. Sustainable? Seasonal work only one overseas option for males 20-39 years. What are sustainable rates for different Pacific countries? Demand on Labour Sending Units – can Tonga and Vanuatu cope with increasing numbers being recruited?

The next phase?