REDD+ FOR THE GUIANA SHIELD Technical Cooperation Project Session 5 – Conclusion session Marie Calmel, ONF International December 11th, 2013 2nd Steering Committee Meeting, Macapá

Presentation outline MoU with the GSF Validation of meeting outcomes (principle, budget & calendar, who) Next Steering Committee Meeting

MoU with GSF MoU between ONF (has the project holder) and GSF Comments has been made and discussed between ONF, ONFI and GSF Documents under legal review

Tools to support decision making Several previous experiences Guyasim software (CIRAD) Models of future deforestation (e.g. CI/Imazon/ClarkLabs), Brazil Underlying assumption – Model are informative Results Processes Challenges: Data / inputs Appropriateness

General overview Regional GIS Database Participative development of the tools Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

PhD project 1 PhD 1 Regional GIS Database Participative development of the tools Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts PhD 1 Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

PhD project 1 Funded PhD under “CIRAD Forêt” supervision (Bruno Hérault) and the “Laboratoire Montpelliérain d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée » (LAMETA – Jean –Michel Salles) PhD student – Camille Dezecache Objective: To develop a spatially explicit model of future deforestation, taking into consideration several development scenario Participation to the project: Component 2 : Development of maps of deforestation risks Collection of data and preparation of a GIS database of drivers of deforestation (in partnership with ONF Guyane) Component 3: Critical review of the available models Participation to Working Groups in order to share the model construction process Part of the scientific platform on modeling future land use and land cover changes

Implementation and budget Implementation through a consultancy contract with CIRAD Forêt (ONF/CIRAD) Budget provided by the project in order to: Ensure the good articulation within the project objectives and approach Ensure participation to Working Groups, events, etc. in order to share experience and advancements Missions in the countries Preparation of deliverables scheduled in the framework of the project Total budget: 55 780€ Draft agreement to be submitted to FFEM non objection

PhD project 2 PhD 2 Regional GIS Database Participative development of the tools Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts PhD 2 Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

PhD project 2 Objective: Assess the impacts of REDD+, land-use planning and sectoral measures and policies on forest cover changes and socio-economical development How: Development of a partial equilibrium model that would focus on most relevant sectors: Forestry Agriculture Mining Others? Participative construction of the model Policies and measures to be tested Cause-effect chain Construction of scenarios Development of a regional dialogue platform To follow the model development To dialogue on the results and tools

Implementation and budget Project still to be launched Total budget: 70k€ from CIFRE co-fundings + functioning costs PhD project under scientific review Call for application in the different countries Likely start: mid 2014

General overview Scientific collaboration platform Regional GIS Database General consideration of political approprietness of those tools in the REDD+ and Land-Use planning framework Decision-making tools Participative development of the tools Scientific collaboration platform Model spatially explicit of future deforestation Regional Scale Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools Long term objective Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

Input Data – A real challenge Using data that are available in the countries: Bring national data to the regional floor when they are produced using different methodologies and shows different characteristics (different resolution and level of details, different type of data, different underlying assumptions, etc.) Rely on data that are still under development (need for country to gain confidence on those data before sharing it) Some confidentiality and sovereignty consideration Collection of data To avoid duplication Necessity to produce new regional data Control of the agenda Avoid intrusion in the national framework and therefore to facilitate dialogue Probably lesser resolution to enable a global homogeneous tool Possibilities to combine lower and higher level data when available

Production of data Land-Use and Land-Cover Historical Analysis 4 time points Resolution and cloud coverage (meeting to be organized between different stakeholders) Modalities for implementation: On free imageries Validation with high resolution data Subcontract (under development) Including a review of existing data Budget: 30k€ (initial budget scheduled for the Forest cover Monitoring Study) GIS Database on drivers of deforestation Variables to be tested in the different models CIRAD PhD student preparing a review of existing data ONF-Guyane administrating the Database (online options?) Creation of additional data if required Budget: under estimation

Discussion

MERCI / THANK YOU / DANK U / OBRIGADA marie.calmel@onfinternational.com http://www.onfinternational.org Photo credit: ONF Guyane