Project: 00075206 “Third National Report to UNFCCC” Analyses of Possible GHG Emissions Limitations for the Republic of Macedonia in Case of Becoming UNFCCC Annex I Member or EU Member Neven Duić

Climate change Since 1750 we pumped 1500 GtCO2 (Global: 30 GtCO2/a, 4.5 tCO2/cap/a, MK 5.8 tCO2/cap/a) … … which resulted in increase of concentration to 400 ppm

Climate change Higher CO2 concentration, higher temperature … … global warming (2ºC ~ 450 ppm)

Higher CO2 concentration, higher temperature … … global warming (2ºC ~ 450 ppm) Convergence > 1 tCO2/cap/a Climate change

UNFCCC process UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, Doha amendment and after: 5% reduction of GHG emissions by 2008-12 from 1990 base for annex I countries (EU15 - 8%) Further reduction by 2013-20 under Doha amendment (EU28 - 20%) By 2015 a new agreement on post-2020, pledges expected from all countries

CO2 emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase? Climate change CO2 emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives

Fully economically viable but not being done? Climate change Fully economically viable but not being done? IEA Energy Technology Perspectives

Estimate of Fossil Fuel-related Subsidies Fossil fuel subsidies – 10 times bigger than RES subsidies

Estimate of Fossil Fuel-related Subsidies Country Energy related subsidies as % of GDP Albania 7-8% Bosnia-Herzegovina 9-10% Croatia 5-6% Macedonia 8-9% Montenegro 10-11% Serbia 7-9% Kosovo 35-36% Aleksandar Kovacevic, UNDP: Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans

UNFCCC process Macedonia options: It will have to give an offer by 2015 for the period after 2020. The offer can be: BAU deviation (deviation from business as usual – appropriate for countries with fast growth of emissions) QELRC (quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment – appropriate for countries with stagnant emissions) Macedonia is a member of Energy community That includes obligation of implementation of Acquis in energy and environment chapters Implies acceding to Annex I of UNFCCC (QELRC) Macedonia is a EU candidate country Could become member by 2020 at the earliest

GHG emissions - MK Macedonia - Total emissions and removals in CO2-eq for the period 1990-2009 [Gg]

Proposed scenarios Group 1 scenarios 2020 2030 2040 2050 EU_Low -20% -30% -40% EU_Medium -45% -60% EU_High -80% EU end year emission reduction - overall ETS + non-ETS Group 2 scenarios 2021-28 2029-36 2037-44 2045-52 Kyoto_Low +20% +10% 0% -10% Kyoto_MediumLow -20% Kyoto_Medium -30% Kyoto_MediumHigh -40% Kyoto_High -50% QELRC emission reduction (average period)

Proposed scenarios Group 3 scenarios 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 -10% BAUdev_Low -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% BAUdev_Medium -35% BAUdev_High -40% -50% -60% BAU deviation end year emission reduction BAU deviation end year emission reduction

EU Acquis Reduction by 20% overall by 2020 (no LULUCF), 30% in case of Doha amendment Between 1990 and 2005 GHG emission reduction achieved is 7.9% EU ETS Large installations from EU28+CH+IS+LI+NO, power sector and industry, cca 50% emissions Power buys emissions, industry gets some and buys the rest, ETS level, no national goals Reductions where is cheapest Goal to reduce 21% between 2005 and 2020 Non-ETS – effort sharing between EU countries

EU Acquis End year GHG targets and budget period QELRC in case of no deal (voluntary, no Doha amendment)

EU Acquis targets vs. QELRC End year GHG targets and budget period QELRC in case of no deal (voluntary, no Doha amendment) Trajectory of EU emission targets.

EU Acquis - effort sharing Non-ETS – effort sharing between EU countries Macedonia probably as Bulgaria

How to reduce emissions? Demand side: Buildings: more efficient buildings More efficient appliances, lightning More efficient industry More efficient transport, modal shift Supply side: Power sector: increase efficiency, switch to gas, renewables, imports Buildings: more renewables Renewables and waste in industry Biofuels and electricity in transport

Decoupling is possible – EU case

Decoupling is possible – Danish case

Decoupling is possible – Danish case

Transport – unlocked learning curve

Coal US Coal mining employment

Coal Energy production in European Union 1990-2009

Coal Manpower in the European coal industry 2008 and 2010

How to reduce emissions? EU – renewables 20% by 2020 in gross energy demand Macedonia 28% as a member of Energy community EU Green Paper "A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies“ – 40% lower GHG and 30% RES by 2030? EU Roadmap 2050 - 80% lower GHG emissions by 2050, RES 40%-100%?

New installed and decommissioned power capacity in EU, 2012 [MW], EWEA RES Directive New installed and decommissioned power capacity in EU, 2012 [MW], EWEA

RES Directive EU electricity generation installed capacity net change, 2000-2012 [MW], EWEA

RES Directive

Renewables - jobs Average employment over life of facility (jobs per MW of average capacity)

Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?

Conclusions Macedonia will have to offer emission reduction by 2015 Macedonia will probably have to join Annex I Although no emission reduction needed by 2020, reductions by 2030 will influence today decisions The influence of Energy Community should be taken into account more seriously 3 groups of scenarios proposed

Thank you for your attention! Благодарам за вниманието! Neven.Duic@fsb.hr