Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Improved Fossil/Industrial CO2 Modelling for the North American Carbon Program (NACP) : the “Vulcan” project Kevin Gurney Daniel Mendoza, Broc Seib, Chris Miller Purdue University Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science Purdue Climate Change Research Center Rosen Center for Advanced Computing Steve Knox, Scott Denning, Kathy Corbin, Dennis Ojima Colorado State University Marc Fischer, Scott Murtishaw Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Supported by NASA grant NNG05GG12G www.purdue.edu/eas/carbon/vulcan.html 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Vulcan Project Context: Goal: Solution: Quantification of NA C budget requires high-res, dynamic, process-based estimates of fossil/industrial CO2 emissions Goal: Emissions at 10s km/hourly with economic sub-sector detail that moves beyond climatological Solution: Leverage off the long-history of Air Quality monitoring in North America 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Using EPA emissions models & data A comprehensive database/model that combines: inventory data - stack monitoring, emissions reports, etc process attributes - control devices, fuel consumed, etc classification - individual facilities, source category codes to construct detailed space and time dependent emissions of criteria pollutants (CO, O3, NOx, SOx, particulates, Pb) Three classes of inputs: Point sources – powerplants, for example Mobile sources – vehicle emissions Area sources – residential sources, for example Resolution: 10 km, hourly Modules Area source Point source Vehicle Biogenic nonroad 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Manipulate underlying to generate CO2 Accept data, time/place structure “as is” CO2 direct Fuel throughput NOx emissions Emission controls NOx EF CO2 EF Place/time 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Methods continued Result: Mobile: NMIM and diurnal data, render onto roads in GIS environment Point: Crosslink to CEM (power generators), remainder reliant on NOx (139,000 records) Toughest, least reliable Nonpoint: Almost all reliant on NOx Result: CO2 emissions at 1-10 km from all sectors in US with process-level detail every hour (1999, 2002) 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Results from “AREA” module natlog of tonnes C/day: January 3, 2002 Country-level consumption Distrib. By  9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Results from “POINT” module Tonnes C/day/facility 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Results from “on-road” module 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Dynamic emissions Rush hours: 8 am, 6 pm peaks Dominant in exurban/rural 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

All sources Ln tonnes C/day/gridcell 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Independent check category This study1 EIA EPA transport2 0.47 0.51 0.48 industrial3 0.20 0.28 0.24 electricity 0.59 0.61 residential 0.11 0.10 commercial 0.065 0.062 0.063 Total 1.43 1.56 1.49 We are currently making comparisons at finer levels of disaggregation 1We don’t have alaska, hawaii, 2industrial incomplete and in “point” 3transport is extrap from ‘99 (nonroad extrap from summer months), 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Next steps Immediate: Out there: Deeper QA is necessary Continue comparisons to independent estimation Run chemistry (oxidize CO and VOCs), evaluate CO to MOPPITT Prepare for mid-continent intensive Public distribution Out there: Rerun atmospheric CO2 inversions Add Mexico and Canada Data on traffic patterns, hierarchical road networks, household metering The globe! - hard and may require a collection of approaches 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Conclusions High res, process-driven fossil CO2 is essential: for science (budgets, inversions) and management (options) Our approach for North America (US now) looks promising and early eval. shows no gross problems Capturing dynamics (rush hours, diurnal cycles) We are able to exceed proposed spatial scales Public release soon (Winter/Spring ‘07) The Vulcan approach can likely do industrial world, developing world may require a different approach 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006

Thank you Thank You! 9/21/2018 AGU, Dec 2006