DBA Strategic Road Maps March 2018 PROFESSOR ROBIN MATTHEWS KINGSTON UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL LONDON ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY MOSCOW MOSI YOSHKAR-OLA ECONOMIC STRATEGIES PRESIDENT OF THE LEAGUE OF CORPORATE STRATEGY AND ACCOUNTING http/www.robindcmatthews.com http://www.tcib.org.uk/about.html http://kpp-russia.ru robindcmatthews.com
(current system state) T Past Future upside System state possible futures possible causes probable futures Probable causes possible causes possible futures Now (current system state) T downside robindcmatthews.com
THE FUTURE (outer dynamics) 1. What is the future outlook and 2 THE FUTURE (outer dynamics) 1.What is the future outlook and 2. What are the risks for business? Use the diagram below in your presentation robindcmatthews.com
The global system is a complex system OPEN SYSTEMS BUSINESS Global business is a complex subsystem of the global system The global system is a complex system OPEN SYSTEMS 21/09/2018 robindcmatthews.com
Complex adaptive systems can self organise spontaneously Complex systems have a large number of parts Interdependence between parts of the system Hierarchies of systems; systems within systems Continuous and dynamic interaction within and between levels of hierarchy Emergence of unpredictable/surprizing events The scale of effects can’t be predicted for example. Positive and negative feedbacks. Unpredictable time lags Systems and subsystems are open Systems co-evolve. Complex systems operate far from equilibrium. Unpredictable patterns emerge which become attractors influence future directions. Attractors may be orderly or chaotic. No single entity has complete knowledge of the system. Path dependence. Complexity catastrophe
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PRODUCTS AND SERVICES (VALUE ADDED IN SUPPLY CHAIN) SUPPLIERS RETAILERS FINAL CUSTOMERS DISTRIBUTORS FIRM’S VALUE CHAIN VLUED VLUE PRODUCTS AND SERVICES (VALUE ADDED IN SUPPLY CHAIN) robindcmatthews.com
energy company robindcmatthews.com
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https://hbr.org/2007/01/how-leaders-create-and-use-networks robindcmatthews.com https://hbr.org/2007/01/how-leaders-create-and-use-networks
META MODEL PAYOFFS INNER DYNAMICS DYNAMICS GRAMMAR OUTER DYNAMICSOUTER Mandala robindcmatthews.com
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Haldane (2009) robindcmatthews.com
Adjacency matrix F Adjacency matrix E2 E1 robindcmatthews.com
k = degree of a node; the number of connected edges P(k) ≈ Ck – α 𝑃(𝑘) = 𝐶 𝑘 𝛼 The internet k = degree of a node; the number of connected edges robindcmatthews.com
Small world networks highly clustered, short path lengths Degree of a node is the number of edges (k) connecting it to other nodes. High degree nodes have many connections (high k); low degree nodes have few (low k) P(k) probability of degree k follows a power law P(k) ≈ k – α.. P(k) ≈ Ck – α.. robindcmatthews.com