Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam DSMHT 403: Climate Modelling and Adaptation Syllabus Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) July 2016

Semester: July-December 2016 Semester Instructor: A.K.M. Saiful Islam, Ph.D. Professor, IWFM, BUET Contact: Room No. 309 Tel. 9665650-80, Ext. 7923 (Off.) Email: akmsaifulislam@iwfm.buet.ac.bd Web: http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam Course Web page: http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/duclimatecourse2016.htm

Objectives: Understanding the concept of Integrated Water Resources Management in relation to Climate Change. Understanding the climate system and the hydrological cycle. Being aware of the economic, environmental and social impact of climate. Understanding of adaptation in relation to water and climate change.

Syllebus 1. Introducing Climate Modeling, Types of Climate Models: Energy Balance Climate Model, One dimensional Radiative-convective Climate Model, and Dimensionally Constrained Climate model, General Circulation Models, Paleoclimatic Model, and Projections of Future Climate Change. 2. Processes of Climatic Model Development, Sensitivity of Climate Model & Model Evaluation. 3. Types of adaptation to climate change: anticipatory and reactive. 4. Adaptation characteristics and processes: Components and Forms of adaptation, Climate Stimuli for Adaptation, Adaptation Types and Forms, Systems, Scales, and Actor, Processes and Evaluation of Adaptation 5. Technologies & Options for Adaptation: adaptation in coastal zones, adaptation technologies for water supplies, adaptation options for agriculture, adaptation options for health, infrastructure technologies for adaptation 6. Adaptive Capacity and its Determinants: Economic Resources, Technologies, Information and skills, Infrastructure, Institution, Equity. Enhancing Adaptive Capacity. 7. Climate Change Adaptation Options in Bangladesh, NAPA, Endowed Knowledge Inclusion in Adaptation. 

Module-1 Climate System and Hydrologic cycle Atmosphere Cryosphere: Sea, Ice sheet, Glacier Hydrosphere: River, Lakes, ocean interactions Hydrologic Cycle Biosphere and Ecosystem Climate variability and climate change. Global warming and green house gases Historic aspects of global climate change Climate change in South Asian context: Case study

Module-2 Prediction of climate change Global and regional climate change predictions Dynamic and static downscaling for impact study. Uncertainty of predictions

Module-2 Impact of climate change on water sector Flood risk assessment Drought risk assessment Sea level rise and salinity intrusion River Erosion and livelihoods Cyclone and storm surges

Module-3 Economic, social and Environmental implications of climate change Economics of climate change Social impact of climate change: vulnerable social groups and gender. Impact of climate change on deltaic ecosystem (arid, coastal and deltaic system). Implication of climate change on agriculture, food security and livelihood. Implication of climate change on water supply, sanitation and health (heat stress and vector born diseases). Vulnerability analysis, adaptive capacity and sensitivity.

Module-3 Mitigation measures and adaptation techniques. Mitigation measures and carbon trading. Non structural and structural adaptation. Adaptation techniques in the context of integrated water resource management.

Module-4 Policy, laws, international conventions and country program. Global awareness and IPCC interpretations Koyoto protocol and other international conventions. Paris Climate Change Agreement 2015 Responses to climate change: global, national and local National Climate change strategies and activities. Institutional arrangements of climate change.

Grading Term Papers 30% Final Exam 70%

Questions ?