University at Albany (State University of New York) Simulation, Analytics, and Modeling for Border Apprehension and Security (SAMBAS) Brandon Behlendorf University at Albany (State University of New York) Albany, NY Problem Statement and Objective: Key Question: Where should DHS/CBP/OBP position detection / interdiction resources between Ports of Entry (POEs)? Objective: To develop a geospatial toolkit to allow Sector-and Station-level personnel to: Determine likely probable pathways prior to apprehension; Conduct change detection analysis to identify shifts in probable pathways between two time periods; Identify current “GEOINT” areas of low-risk that contain a significant concentration of probable pathways; and, Assess the impact of “fixed” detection infrastructure (IFTs, RVSS, MSCs, MVSS) and interior enforcement operations (checkpoints) on probable pathways to support an alternative analysis of return-on-investment (ROI) for specific deployments. Methodology and Data Requirements Methodology: Across a baseline topological model, simulate probable pathways using weighted shortest-path network algorithms coupled with a multivariate cost-benefit matrix across different decision-making inputs. Validate simulation models against sample of OBP apprehension data Incorporate field perspectives into the design of the toolkit, assumptions underlying the modeling, and outline of the training Use COTS software [ArcGIS] to develop GUI toolkit to address four objectives and ease integration into existing CBP/OBP systems Data Requirements: Three-year sample of apprehension data from E3 system that allows for aggregate results to be released in validation study (no raw data released but study will not be FOUO or LES) Access to HSIP & additional OBP data for toolkit development (no aggregate results released; toolkit will ultimately be LES or FOUO) Impact Statement and Relevance to DHS Roles and Responsibilities The SAMBAS project will primarily support CBP, who can integrate the toolkit into operational protocols at the Station- and Sector-levels within the Office of Border Patrol. The validated toolkit will: Increase situational awareness of potential smuggling routes (not just apprehension points) Provide a third-party transparent standard to identify and justify a “reasonably-located checkpoint” (U.S. v. Martinez-Fuente, 1976) Support location of detection infrastructure relevant to upcoming investments in border technology Provide new methods for Border Patrol to measure the impact of their operations on potential smuggling routes, supporting the National Border Geospatial Intelligence Strategy Timeline and Deliverables Timeline: 9/25/2017-6/30/2019 (21m) 30d – Revised workplan 60d – Final workplan, data use agreements & IRB approved 90d – Design mock-ups for toolkit (with field input) 120d – Final toolkit design & data integration plans approved by OBP 6mo – Draft validation study 9mo - GUI Toolkit v1 & validation study completed Deliverables: Validation of Baseline Methodology GUI-based toolkit implemented in an ArcGIS desktop environment for planning and analysis Sector-specific data warehouse of model parameters Training/operator’s guide