PENGENALAN EKONOMETRIKA RESUME FROM HILL, GRIFFITHS, AND LIM Principles of Econometrics (2011) PENGENALAN EKONOMETRIKA Al Muizzuddin Fazaalloh, SE., ME. Universitas Brawijaya

Why Study Econometrics? Econometrics is fundamental for economic measurement Econometrics plays a special role in the training of economists Most economists, whether they work in the business world or for the government, or teach in universities, engage in economic analysis that is in part ‘‘empirical.’’ By this we mean that they use economic data to estimate economic relationships, test economic hypotheses, and predict economic outcomes. 9/21/2018

Next ‘‘I can estimate the effect on your sales if your competition lowers its price by $1 per unit.’’ ‘‘I can test whether your new ad campaign is actually increasing your sales.’’ 9/21/2018

What Is Econometrics About? In economics we express our ideas about relationships between economic variables using the mathematical concept of a function. For example, to express a relationship between income and consumption, we may write 9/21/2018

Next The demand for an individual commodity—say, the Honda Accord—might be expressed as 9/21/2018

Next Each of the above equations is a general economic model that describes how we visualize the way in which economic variables are interrelated. Economic models of this type guide our economic analysis. For most economic decision or choice problems, it is not enough to know that certain economic variables are interrelated, or even the direction of the relationship. In addition, we must understand the magnitudes involved. That is, we must be able to say how much a change in one variable affects another. 9/21/2018

SOME EXAMPLES DISKUSI KELOMPOK BACA HALAMAN 3 WAKTU 15 MENIT Jelaskan apa yang dimaksud dengan parameter? Bagaimana untuk kasus di Indonesia, berikan contoh! 9/21/2018

The Econometric Model What is an econometric model, and where does it come from? In an econometric model we must first realize that economic relations are not exact. Economic theory does not claim to be able to predict the specific behavior of any individual or firm, but rather describes the average or systematic behavior of many individuals or firms. 9/21/2018

Next When studying car sales we recognize that the actual number of Hondas sold is the sum of this systematic part and a random and unpredictable component e that we will call a random error. 9/21/2018

Next Econometric model representing the sales of Honda Accords is 9/21/2018

Next The coefficients b1; b2; . . . ; b5 are unknown parameters of the model that we estimate using econometric technique. In every econometric model, whether it is a demand equation, a supply equation, or a production function, there is a systematic portion and an unobservable random component. The random component represents a ‘‘noise’’ component, which obscures our understanding of the relationship among variables, and which we represent using the random variable e. 9/21/2018

Next We use the econometric model as a basis for statistical inference 9/21/2018

Economic Data Types Data may be collected at various levels of aggregation micro—data collected on individual economic decision-making units such as individuals, households, and firms. macro—data resulting from a pooling or aggregating over individuals, households, or firms at the local, state, or national levels. Data may be quantitative or qualitative quantitative—outcomes such as prices or income that may be expressed as numbers or some transformation of them, such as real prices or per capita income. qualitative—outcomes that are of an ‘‘either-or’’ situation. For example, a consumer either did or did not make a purchase of a particular good, or a person either is or is not married. 9/21/2018

Next Time Series Data Cross Section Data 9/21/2018

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