International Migration: Trends, Issues and Future Prospects Aaron Terrazas Policy Analyst – Migration Policy Institute Monday, June 27, 2011 University of Chicago, Center for International Studies

About the Migration Policy Institute The Global Context Focus on the United States Issues and Future Prospects

The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank in Washington, DC dedicated to the analysis of the movement of people worldwide. MPI is guided by the philosophy that international migration needs active and intelligent management. When such policies are in place and are responsibly administered, they bring benefits to immigrants and their families, communities of origin and destination, and sending and receiving countries.

MPI’s policy research and analysis proceeds from four central propositions: Fair, smart, transparent and rights-based immigration and refugee polices can promote social cohesion, economic vitality, and national security. Given the opportunity, immigrants become net contributors and create new social and economic assets. Sound immigration and integration policies result from balanced analysis, solid data, and the engagement of a spectrum of stakeholders. National policymaking benefits from international comparative research.

US Immigration Policy Transatlantic Council on Migration Regional Migration Study Group National Center on Immigrant Integration Policy Migrants, Migration, and Development International Diaspora Engagement Alliance Refugee Protection Labor Markets Working Group National and International Data Hub

Online Resources MPI Website: www.migrationpolicy.org Migration Information Source: www.migrationinformation.org Migration Data Hub: www.migrationinformation.org/datahub International Diaspora Engagement Alliance: www.diasporaalliance.org

About the Migration Policy Institute The Global Context Focus on the United States Issues and Future Prospects

Origins and destinations of international migrants, circa 2000 (View 1) Source: United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 2009.

Origins and destinations of international migrants, circa 2000 (View 2) Sources: United Nations Population Division, The World Bank, The New York Times.

Origins and destinations of international migrants, circa 2000 (View 3) Sources: United Nations Population Division, The World Bank, WorldMapper.

South-South Migration is Greater than South-North Migration in Three Regions Sources: Dilip Ratha and William Shaw, South-South Migration and Remittances (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007).

Emigration rate by level of human development Contrary to popular perception, the poorest of the poor typically do not migrate Emigration rate by level of human development (e.g., D.R. of Congo to Cote d’Ivoire) (e.g., Myanmar to Gabon) (e.g., Cuba to Bahrain) (e.g., Barbados to Lichtenstein) Note: The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite measure of individual wellbeing in a country that takes into consideration life expectancy, adult literacy rates, education enrollment, and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Source: United Nations Development Program (UNDP) calculations based on data from “Global Migrant Origin Database (Version 4),” Development Research Center on Migration, Globalization and Poverty, University of Sussex.

US share of world migrant stock About one-fifth of the world’s international migrants reside in the United States* US share of world migrant stock Note: *Share of total excluding the Former Soviet Union. Source: United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs, Population Division, Estimates of World Migrant Stock 2008.

Global Remittance Flows Source: United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 2009.

Total Remittances

Remittances as a share of GDP

About the Migration Policy Institute The Global Context Focus on the United States Issues and Future Prospects

Issues: Immigrants in the US Population growth Changing origins Geographic dispersion Labor market impacts Generational shift

The number and share of immigrants in the United States has grown since 1970 40 million (2010) 38 million (2008) 13% (2010) 14.8% 12.5% (2008) 4.7%

How big is 40 million? Immigrants in the US 40 million Canada Virginia 7.9 million France 62.6 million California 36.9 million Texas 24.8 million Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009; World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Immigrant Stock: 2000-2010 Source: MPI analysis of the Monthly Basic Current Population Survey, 3-month moving average.

Major immigration laws Chinese Exclusion Act, 1882 Immigration and Naturalization Act, 1924 Alien Registration Act, 1940 Immigration and Nationality Act, 1965 Immigration Reform and Control Act, 1986 Immigration Act, 1990

Children of immigrants... Immigrants are ... 1 in 8 US residents 1 in 2 new workers in 1990s Children of immigrants... 23% of all children in US 30% of all low-income children 84% are US citizens

Legal status of the foreign born Unauthorized immigrants (11.1 million) 28% Legal temporary migrants (1.4 million) 4% Legal permanent residents (LPRs) (12.4 million) 31% Naturalized citizens (14.6 million) 37% 39.4 million* foreign born in March 2009 * Includes estimate of undercounted immigrants Source: Passel, Jeffery S., and D’Vera Cohn. 2010. US Unauthorized Immigration Flows Are Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade. Washington, DC: Pew Hispanic Center.

The top countries of origin of recent immigrants are in Latin America and Asia 1960 2008 Source: US Census Bureau, 1960 Census; 2008 American Community Survey.

Over the past decade, immigration has evolved from a “5-state” to a national story

A third of adult immigrants lack a high school education Source: MPI calculations from 2008 American Community Survey.

Highly Skilled Immigrants in US Workforce,* 2005-2006 1 in 4 doctors 2 in 5 medical scientists 1 in 3 computer software engineers 1 in 5 computer programmers 1 in 5 postsecondary teachers . . . . are immigrants Notes: *Refers to persons in the civilian labor force, ages 25 and older. Source: American Community Survey (pooled 2005-2006).

Key Industries Men Women Construction, extraction, and transportation (25.9%) Services (17.4%) Manufacturing, installation, and repair (14.6%) Management, business, and finance (10.7%) Services (25.7%) Administrative support (14.7%) Sales (10.5%) Management, business, and finance (10.4%)

Immigrant and Native Employment over the Recession and Recovery Source: MPI analysis of the Monthly Basic Current Population Survey, 3-month moving average.

Involuntary part-time work is on the rise among immigrants… …And wages have fallen, in contrast to natives. Source: MPI analysis of the Monthly Basic Current Population Survey, 3-month moving average.

Children with immigrant parents: USA (millions) Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from the 1990 and 2000 US Censuses and from the 2008 American Community Survey

Share of children with immigrant parents Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from the 1990 and 2000 US Censuses and from the 2008 American Community Survey

Citizenship and civic engagement K-12 and post-secondary education Adult English acquisition and workforce development Poverty and public benefits Healthcare access and treatment State and local immigration regulation

About the Migration Policy Institute The Global Context Focus on the United States Issues and Future Prospects

Motivating Issues Stagnant low-wage labor market Prospect of a long, slow recovery; possible shift in structural unemployment Changing labor force behavior of native born Shifting drivers of global economic growth Demographic change and human capital investments in Mexico and Central America If the US economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, it will take until November 2022 to close the current job gap; even under unrealistically optimistic scenarios, the US economy will not achieve prerecession employment levels until early 2016

Questions? Thank you. Aaron Terrazas, Policy Analyst aterrazas@migrationpolicy.org