Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change Supported by the Hudson River Foundation and National Science Foundation

Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change Jon Erickson, Caroline Hermans University of Vermont Karin Limburg, Karen Stainbrook, Bongghi Hong SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry John Gowdy, Audra Nowosielski, John Polimeni Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Katherine Daniels New York Planning Federation David Burns Dutchess County Environmental Management Council Eileen Sassman Wappinger Creek Watershed Intermunicipal Council

(marginal, and potentially episodic) FEEDBACK LOOPS (marginal, and potentially episodic) The Tyranny of Small Decisions Incremental Economic Change Incremental Land-Use Change Incremental Watershed Health Decline Chlorides School Quality Traffic Congestion Energy Dependence Social Networks Community Services OUTSIDE WORLD

PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY FEEDBACK LOOPS Out from Under the Tyranny Economic Structure and Change Land-Use and Demographic Change Biophysical Watershed Health Land Use Society Community Economy $ Business Households OUTSIDE WORLD PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY

from Models to Mayhem Indicators Strategies Economic Land Use Watershed Health Land-Use and Demographic Change Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Business HouseH Economic Structure and Change Individuals from Models to Mayhem Strategies Indicators Economic Land Use Ecological Manage the Economy Manage the Landscape Manage the Environment

ECONOMIC CHANGE County-Wide Workshop: GOVERMENT 1. Semi-Conductor Industry Suburbanization Transformation of Agriculture 4. Commuting INDUSTRY HOUSEHOLDS Private Goods & Services Public Services Consumption Goods Labor CAPITAL OUTSIDE WORLD Exports Imports Depreciation Investment

LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE Past Change Satellite maps Ortho photos Land use interpret. Tax parcels Building permits

Change Detection

Pleasant Valley

1991 Stanford 2001

1991 East Fishkill 2001

1991 La Grange 2001

Ortho Photo Area of Detail: LaGrange Poughkeepsie border

“Ground” Truth with Ortho. Photos

Poughkeepsie

Wappinger

Pleasant Valley

Stanford

LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE VACANT PARCELS LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE Census by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . . Future Change Census Variables: Population and Income growth Tax Parcel Variables: Use Code, Assessed Value, Acreage Spatial Variables: Distance to Central Business District Biophysical Constraints Slope, Soils, Wetlands Social Constraints Zoning Ag. land management Riparian management Housing preferences

$ Household Income Housing Demand Economic Social Constraints Scenario Residential Development Social Constraints Economic Scenario Land Use Interpretation

Impervious Surface Estimates CURRENT SCENARIO