Shandong Leadership Group Michael Bar, Economics

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Presentation transcript:

Shandong Leadership Group Michael Bar, Economics The Global Economy Shandong Leadership Group Michael Bar, Economics

About me Global Trends China in the Global Economy Questions, Data Sources

My Research Areas Macroeconomics Economics of Growth Labor Economics Development process over the very long-run, Income Inequality. Labor Economics Labor Force Participation of women, Gender Wage Gap, Taxation of Families, Income Inequality. Industrial Organization Pricing strategies

My Teaching Areas Macroeconomics Econometrics Economics of Growth Financial Economics History of Economics Thought

Main Global Trends Income per capita ↑ Life expectancy ↑ Urbanization (% population in cities) ↑ Fertility (babies per woman) ↓ World Trade ↑ Data ↑

Global Economy: 200 years in 2 minutes

China 1950

China 2015

China 2050

India 1950

India 2015

India 2050

Aging Population: Challenges Demand for healthcare ↑ Elderly Dependency Ratio ↑ 𝐸𝐷𝑅= #𝑎𝑔𝑒 65 #𝑎𝑔𝑒 15−64 Country EDR Japan 42.7% U.S.A. 22.1% China 13.3%

Total Fertility Rate

Public Debt Japan

Urbanization ↑

Fertility ↓

World Trade

World Trade – Countries are Connected

China’s Export Partners

China’s Import Partners

China’s Export Products

China’s Import Products

China’s Top Trade Partners Top 10 Export Partners Top 10 Import Partners Country % Of Total Exports 1. United States 18% 1. South Korea 10.38% 2. Hong Kong, China 14.65 2. United States 8.95 3. Japan 5.96 3. Other Asian, NES 8.62 4. South Korea 4.45 4. Taiwan 8.59 5. Germany 3.03 5. Japan 8.51 6. Vietnam 2.91 6. Germany 5.21 7. U.K. 2.61 7. Australia 4.39 8. Netherlands 8. Malaysia 3.17 9. India 2.55 9. Brazil 2.64 10. Singapore 2.33 10. Switzerland 2.45

China’s Top Trade Partners Ratio scale

Tariffs 5.6% 6.3% 2.7% 7.99% 1.9%

Tariffs are Costly “Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires.“ (Barack Obama 2012, State of the Union Address, Quote about tariff increase on Chinese tires imports). Estimated jobs saved by the tariff: 1,200. Cost to consumers (who spend more on tires): 1.1 billion in 2011 alone. Cost per job save in tire industry: $833,000 per job. Without the tariff, the 1.1 billion could be spent on other goods and services, and create 11,000 jobs (at 100k).

What Should Chinese Government Do? Sign free-trade agreements with other countries (e.g. India). No need to interfere with trade itself.

Data Sources Gapminder - bubble and other visualization. Population Pyramids. World Integrated Trade Solution visualization tools. Federal Reserve Bank Data. CIA World Factbook. Economic Freedom Index.