Select Committee on Education and Recreation 24 February 2010 Dr Mafu S Rakometsi

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE NSC RESULTS? Prof. John Volmink - Chairperson of Umalusi

The Class of 2009 Second cohort of candidates to write the new National Senior Certificate (NSC) Completely new qualification based on the National Curriculum Statement The NSC replaces the Senior Certificate which was written at the end of 2007 and which will finally be phased out in 2011 Some 552 073 sat for the NSC (620 192 enrolled including repeater candidates) Approximately 60,25% of all those who have written have met the requirements of a pass

Comparing the NSC with that of previous years The NSC differs from the previous Senior Certificate both in structure as well as in grading A critical feature of the Senior Certificate was that what determined a pass or fail was based on the aggregate score The NSC determines a pass or fail by 40% in at least three subjects and 30% in three others Not completely appropriate to compare overall results between the two qualifications

Some criteria for comparison The number of candidates passing The quality of the results The standardisation of the exam The predicative quality of the exam for performance at HE level

The number of candidates passing Massification is a natural outcome of an education system that is non-racist, non-sexist and democratic It is the clear that there has been a steady increase over the last decade in the number of learners who enrolled for and wrote the Senior Certificate It is also significant that almost 66 000 of the Class of 2009 did not pass because they narrowly missed the pass mark in one or two subjects They qualify to write supplementary examinations and if half of these candidates pass, the final pass mark may go beyond the 67% mark The underlying philosophy of the NCS had been designed to ensure that most people achieve the minimum requirement for a pass

The number of candidates passing : Trends in senior certificate enrolment and passes Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates Passes Number Change in number (%) Change in passes (%) 1995 531 453 7 283 742 -1 1996 518 032 -3 278 958 -2 1997 555 267 261 400 -6 1998 552 384 272 488 4 1999 511 159 -7 249 831 -8 2000 489 941 -4 283 294 13 2001 449 371 277 206 2002 471 309 5 324 752 17 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

The number of candidates passing : Trends in senior certificate enrolment and passes Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates Passes Number Change in number (%) Change in passes (%) 2002 471 309 5 324 752 17 2003 440 267 -7 322 492 -1 2004 467 985 6 330 717 3 2005 508 363 9 347 184 2006 528 525 4 351 503 1 2007 564 775 7 368 217 2008 533 561 -6 333 604 -9 2009 552 073 3.5 334718 0.33 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

The quality of the results Concerns about quality has become a thorny issue and the subject of much debate albeit uninformed at most times. SA public uses the matric results as the main indicators of quality of the education system and so there is an understandable concern about what these new results of a new qualification is saying about the current state of education It is important however that we interrogate some of our assumptions that inform our beliefs about standards and quality

Assumptions that affect our perceptions Assumption 1 The first assumption is that “more means less” or “more means worse” Stellenbosch University Website: “In the light of phasing out of matriculation exemption and of the distinction between subjects on the higher and standard grade, a significant number of learners will probably qualify for basic admission to university on the basis of their subject combination…..The implication is that many more learners may be able to apply for admission to Stellenbosch University. ……. With this background, it becomes clear why it is necessary for the University to have its own measure to interpret the meaning and value of the new NSC and also to generate additional information in order to make finer distinctions.”

Assumption 2: Trustworthiness The standardisation of the exam Another assumption is that we now use vastly different methods of standardising the results Responsibility for matriculation results has changed hands: JMB (1918 - 1992) SAFCERT (1992 – 2001) Umalusi (2002 – to date) The one constant has been the standardisation process used for the examinations. This is crucial to: Obtain equivalence of the standard of the SCE Across years, subjects and examination authorities It is also necessary in order to deliver a relatively constant product to the HE sector and to the workplace

There is an assumption that we are at a much worse place today than in 1995

Senior Certificate examination results Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

Umalusi’s research on comparisons of NSC with NATED 550 Another assumption is that the NCS is of a lower standard than the previous curriculum. Research completed by Umalusi into the standard of the NCS curriculum confirms that in most cases the NCS presents a greater cognitive challenge The NCS also represents modern, updated and more demanding versions of previous subjects

The NCS philosophy It needs to be said however that the National Curriculum Statement represents different sets of standards for all Not only does it reflect the new values embedded in the Constitution but also aims to develop learners who can respond to the growth and development of knowledge and technology and the demands of the 21st century

What is the NCS? Nationally set curriculum Internationally benchmarked Modern and relevant: 21st Century skills Reflect the progressive values of the constitution Focus on Africa and South Africa

The design of the NCS ASs = leaves of the tree LOs = branches of the tree COs and DOs = trunk of the tree 10 FUNDAMENTAL VALUES = roots of the tree CONSTITUTION = soil in which the Fundamental Values are grounded

Nine principles of the NCS Social transformation Outcomes-based education High knowledge and skills Integration and applied competence Progression Articulation and portability Human rights, inclusivity, environmental and social justice Valuing indigenous knowledge systems Credibility, quality and efficiency PRINCIPLES = nutrients that feed the tree

Five critical and seven developmental outcomes Solve problems Work with others Manage self Communicate early Use science and technology Understand world as a set of related systems Strategies to learn Citizenship Cultural and aesthetic sensitivity Education and career opportunities Entrepreneurial opportunities

Can HE Trust the NSC Results?

Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates Passes University Exemption Number Rate (%) 1994 495 408 287 343 58 88 497 18 1995 531 453 283 742 53 78 821 15 1996 518 032 278 958 54 79 768 1997 555 267 261 400 47 69 007 12 1998 552 384 272 488 49 69 856 13 1999 511 159 249 831 63 725 2000 489 941 283 294 68 626 14 2001 449 371 277 206 62 67 707 2002 471 309 324 752 69 75 048 16 2003 440 267 322 492 73 82 010 19 2004 467 985 330 717 71 85 117 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates Passes University Exemption Number Rate (%) 2004 467 985 330 717 71 85 117 18 2005 508 363 347 184 68 86 531 17 2006 528 525 351 503 66 85 830 16 2007 564 775 368 217 65 85 454 15 2008 533 561 333 604 63 107 642 20 2009 552 073 334 718 60 109 697 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates University Exemption Number Change in number (%) Change in exemptions (%) 1995 531 453 7 78 821 -11 1996 518 032 -3 79 768 1 1997 555 267 69 007 -13 1998 552 384 -1 69 856 1999 511 159 -7 63 725 -9 2000 489 941 -4 68 626 8 2001 449 371 -8 67 707 2002 471 309 5 75 048 11 2003 440 267 82 010 9 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Year No. of Candidates University Exemption Number Change in number (%) Change in exemptions (%) 2003 440 267 -7 82 010 9 2004 467 985 6 85 117 4 2005 508 363 86 531 2 2006 528 525 85 830 -1 2007 564 775 7 85 454 2008 533 561 -6 107 642 26 2009 552 073 109 697 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

Senior Certificate examination results Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

Maintaining Standards Research Project Purpose of the Research To provide Umalusi’s Assessment and Statistics Committee with information on the comparability of the old NATED 550 and new National Curriculum Statement curricula, and on the comparative difficulty of the exams associated with each.

Methodology Comparing curricula Benchmarking NCS exams In-depth policy analysis of content, skills and assessment Design features i.e. outcomes, assessment standards, sequencing, progression, etc. Benchmarking NCS exams Comparison: NATED 550 HG & SG (2005-7) and 2008 & 2009 NSC exam papers Analysis of NSC 2009 examination in correlation with SAG

Subjects Considered in 2008 Curriculum Evaluation Exam Analysis English FAL √ Geography Life Sciences Mathematics Mathematics Literacy Physical Sciences The available budget, time, and capacity meant that six subjects could be researched: the main (high enrolment) ‘gateway’ subjects used to assess suitability for entrance to tertiary institutions were selected. Reports are available

Subjects Considered in 2009 Curriculum Evaluation Exam Analysis English FAL √ Geography Life Sciences Mathematics Mathematics Literacy Physical Sciences Accounting Business Studies Economics History The available budget, time, and capacity meant that six subjects could be researched: the main (high enrolment) ‘gateway’ subjects used to assess suitability for entrance to tertiary institutions were selected.

The case of Mathematics This special role of mathematics has seen it continuously singled out in discussions on: Curriculum reforms Examination results Historically 30% to 40% of secondary schools in the country simply did not offer any mathematics beyond grade nine In 2009 all 620,000 learners took some form of mathematics

Mathematics and the Class of 2009 The Class of 2009 had 52 866 learners who passed mathematics at the 50% level or higher The Class of 2008 had 63 038 learners who passed mathematics at the 50% level or higher This stands in contrast to the 25,000 who passed Higher Grade mathematics in 2007 A further 207 326 learners passed mathematical literacy, most of whom would not have done any mathematics in the previous system. A total of 8 460 passed ML at the level of 80% or higher

Math pass rate Wrote Passed at 30% Passed at 40% Passed at 50% Number passing Math at different thresholds Wrote Passed at 30% Passed at 40% Passed at 50% Passed at 60% Total did not pass 2008 298 821 136 503 89 788 63 038 42 323 162 318 2009 290 630 133 789 85 491 52 866 31 786 156 736 Sources: DoE, Abdridged Report on the 2008 NSC Examniation Results, December 2008; Doe, Technical Report – NSC, December 2008

Trends in HG Math pass rate Number passing HG Math Year No. Wrote Math in 000’s No. Wrote Math HG in 000s No. Passed Math HG in 000s 1995 200,000 60,000 29,000 1996 215,000 65,000 22,000 1997 231,000 68,000 20,000 1998 280,000 1999 281,000 50,000 2000 284,000 39,000 19,000 2001 264,000 35,000 2002 261,000 21,000 2003 258,000 36,000 23,000 2004 276,000 40,000 24,000 * Pass at 50% or higher Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Figures rounded off

Trends in HG Math pass rate Number passing HG Math Year No. Wrote Math in 000’s No. Wrote Math HG in 000s No. Passed Math HG in 000s 2004 276,000 40,000 24,000 2005 303,000 44,000 26,000 2006 318,000 47,000 25,000 2007 348,000 46,000 2008 298,821 n.a. 63,038* 2009 290,630 52,866* * Pass at 50% or higher Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Report on the National senior Certificate Examination results 2009 Figures rounded off

Some remarks about Mathematics and the Class of 2008 The cognitive challenge for mathematics for the class of 2008 was closer to the old SG level as judged by the Umalusi research panel Furthermore there was a mismatch between the suggested cognitive demand as provided by the SAGs and the cognitive challenge in the exemplars and the final mathematics examination Only about 46% of learners met the minimum requirements for a pass in mathematics

Some remarks about mathematics and the Class of 2009 2009 exam was more challenging than the 2008 exam 2009 aligned to the exam guideline Provided a challenge at the top end Only about 44% of learners met the minimum requirements for a pass in mathematics

Cognitive demand for HG and SG Mathematics % of marks at each level of cognitive demand on HG and SG Math papers 2005-7 SG 2005-7 HG 2008 NSC 2009 NSC Knowledge (%) 21 10 9 18 Routine procedures (%) 53 42 62 36 Complex procedure (%) 20 40 24 35 Problem solving (%) 7 8 4 11 Sources: Draft Composite Exam Analysis Report: Maths, Umalusi Research, 2008

The case of Physical Science Curriculum needs urgent attention Content overload Selection of examinable content (especially Chemistry) 2009 exam was of a similar standard to 2008 Difficult for both top and lower achieving learners

Physical Science and the Class of 2009 The Class of 2009 had 45 452 learners who passed Physical Science at the 40% level or higher The Class of 2008 had 62 530 learners who passed Physical Science at the 40% level or higher This stands in contrast to the 28 122 who passed Higher Grade Physical Science in 2007

Physical Science pass rate Number passing Physical Science at different thresholds Wrote Passed at 30% Passed at 40% Passed at 50% Passed at 60% Total did not pass 2008 217 300 119 206 61 480 32 524 16 620 98 042 2009 220 957 81 507 45 531 22 329 10 308 139 450 Sources: DoE, Abdridged Report on the 2008 NSC Examniation Results, December 2008; Doe, Technical Report – NSC, December 2008

Trends in HG Physical Science pass rate Number passing HG Physical Science Year No. Wrote Phys. Sc in 000’s No. Wrote Phys. Sc in 000s No. Passed Phys.Sc HG in 000s 2006 69,302 29,781 2007 71,172 28,122 2008 217,300 n.a. 32,524 * 2009 220,957 22,329* * Pass at 50% or higher Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Report on the National senior Certificate Examination results 2009 Figures rounded off

Cognitive demand for HG and SG Physical Science % of marks at each level of cognitive demand on HG and SG Physical Science papers 2005-7 SG 2005-7 HG 2008 NSC 2009 NSC Factual (%) 21 12 15 Conceptual (%) 29 30 38 39 Problem Solving (%) 50 58 46 Sources: Draft Composite Exam Analysis Report: Maths, Umalusi Research, 2008

Results of other Critical Subjects Life Sciences 2009 exam was more difficult for below-average candidates, but not so challenging for above-average candidates Accounting curriculum NCS content more than Nated 550 content Examination guidelines cover 40 -50 % of new disciplines 2009 exam was of a similar standard to 2008 difficult for both top and lower achieving learners The available budget, time, and capacity meant that six subjects could be researched: the main (high enrolment) ‘gateway’ subjects used to assess suitability for entrance to tertiary institutions were selected.

Quality Assurance of the 2009 National Senior Certificate Examination Dr Mafu S Rakometsi – CEO of Umalusi

2009 Quality assurance processes Moderation of the question papers; Moderation of Site-Based Assessment (SBA); Monitoring of the conduct of the NSC examination; Verification of marking; and Standardization of marks.

Scope of the quality assurance processes Number of NSC 2009 question papers moderated Number of subjects Number of papers Approved/ Conditionally approved at 1st moderation Approved/ Conditionally approved at 2nd moderation Approved/ Conditionally approved at 3rd moderation 38 130 44 73 13

Scope of the quality assurance processes… Moderation of SBA Subjects Provinces EC FS GP KZN Limp MP NW NC WC Accounting √ Business Studies Economics English First Additional Lang Geography History Life Sciences Life Orientation Mathematics Mathematical Literacy Physical Science

Scope of the quality assurance processes… Monitoring of the NSC examination: writing phase Province No of exam centres No of candidates enrolled No of exam centers monitored by Umalusi No of Umalusi monitors per province No of exam centers monitored by Umalusi staff EC 908 76 242 17 04 01 FS 314 31 412 GP 787 109 535 14 02 KZN 1 670 132 931 29 Limp 134 101 658 30 MP 528 58 759 34 NC 135 11 461 NW 382 32 420 22 03 WC 416 48 198 12 Total 5 272 602 616 169 09

Scope of the quality assurance processes… Monitoring of the NSC examination: marking Province No of marking centres No of marking centers visited by Umalusi monitors No of marking centers visited by Umalusi staff EC 14 05 01 FS 15 06 GP 07 02 KZN 31 08 Limp 19 MP 16 NC 03 NW - WC Total 121 45

Scope of the quality assurance processes… Moderation of marking Memoranda discussion meetings Approved and signed off finalized memoranda/ marking guidelines for all the NSC subjects Centralised moderation (see next slide)

Scope of the quality assurance processes… Centralized moderation of marking Non language subjects Language subjects Accounting Afrikaans First Additional Language P1, P2, P3 Agricultural Science P1, P2, P3 English First Additional Language P1, P2, P3 Business Studies IsiXhosa Home Language P1, P2, P3 Economics Sesotho Home Language P1, P2, P3 Geography P1, P2 Setswana Home Language P1, P2, P3 History P1, P2 Life Sciences P1, P2 Mathematics P1, P2, P3 Mathematical Literacy P1, P2 Physical Science P1, P2

Areas of good practice Generally papers catered for both the weaker & high performing candidates, In many cases the Nov 2009 & March 2010 were presented at the same time for moderation, this ensured comparability of standard, External moderators signed the final papers off before dispatch to provinces for printing, Great improvement observed in the monitoring of exams by provinces, Security measures were intensified in the majority of centers across provinces,

Areas of concern Moderation of SBA Majority of provinces do not conduct actual moderation of SBA tasks & learner portfolios – moderation exercise is limited to a compliance audit. Majority of the SBA tasks reflect over reliance on past examination papers, educators lack creativity in developing suitable tasks, SBA tasks developed by educators focus mainly on assessing the lower cognitive skills, Educators battle with the development & use of rubrics used for scoring learners,

Areas of concern… Implementation & Assessment of Life Orientation (LO) requires serious attention. LO is 100% internally assessed and standards vary from one province to the other, and even within provinces. Monitoring of exams: Incidents of improper registration of candidates resulted in duplications and some candidates not registered or registered for the incorrect subjects, The appointment of suitable trained Invigilators and Chief Invigilators is essential. This will address problems relating to the flouting of even basic examination regulations. The security systems in Mpumalanga during the printing, distribution, and storage of question papers require urgent attention.  

Areas of concern… Criteria for the appointment of markers should be strictly adhered to so as not to disadvantage candidates. Moderation of marking: Memoranda discussion meetings for small subjects did not receive the same attention as that given to the gateway subjects. These memorandum discussions were poorly attended. Added to this was the absence of input from the provinces. The problems with the improper translation of question papers into Afrikaans is still of great concern.

Areas of concern… Additions were made to the final memoranda without the consent of the DoBE and Umalusi. A few incidents of non- adherence to the final memoranda were observed, (pg 37, 38 of the NSC report). Some markers do not have the ability and experience to handle higher-order cognitive level questions that required insight and logical reasoning. There were instances of inaccurate totaling of marks and incorrect transferring of marks to the cover page during marking.

Areas of concern… Standardization of marks: Data on the raw mark distribution for 2008 did not correspond with data contained in the 2009 standardization booklets. The number of candidates reflected in the pairs analysis was also not accurate. The data sets submitted for verification of the resulting process was incomplete and sometimes not in accordance with the Umalusi specifications. This resulted in a delay of the verification process. Poor learner performance especially in Mathematics, Physical Science & Accounting point to problems with the curriculum as well as teaching and learning.

Recommendations Moderation of SBA: Moderation of the standard of SBA must be implemented at the school and cluster levels. Checks for compliance can still be part of the moderation process to ensure adherence to policy. All the assessment bodies should ensure that all educators are familiar with the policy requirements to ensure the meeting of national standards. Monitoring of exams: The appointment of suitably trained Chief Invigilators is essential. This will address problems relating to the flouting of even basic examination regulations.

Recommendations … Verification of marking: Criteria for the appointment of markers should be strictly adhered to so as not to disadvantage candidates. Standardization of marks: Data submitted for standardisation purposes must be accurate and in the specified format.

Recommendations … There is a need to establish a basis for the standardization of Life Orientation (LO). Umalusi recommends that an externally- written component be introduced for LO with a view to set standards for the assessment of this subject. There is an urgent need for very intensive teacher training focusing on the content of the new Accounting curriculum. This must then translate into the effective teaching, learning, and assessment of the subject. The Physical Science curriculum appears to be challenging in terms of breadth and needs to be reviewed. Teaching and Learning of Mathematics needs to be strengthened

Examination Irregularities The majority of irregularities were of a technical nature and these were reported to Umalusi in terms of established processes. Some irregularities were as a result of registration-related problems, eg candidates not appearing on mark sheets, some registered for incorrect subjects. Major irregularities: Leakage of the 5 papers in Mpumalanga: Mathematics P1 & 2, Physical Science P1 & 2 and Accounting. These were reported to Umalusi in October 2009. Back-up papers were moderated under tremendous time pressure.

Examination Irregularities… On 20 December 2009, Umalusi was informed that the DoE investigations revealed that other papers may have been compromised in Mpumalanga. An official report from the DoE was sent to Umalusi on 29 Dec. Umalusi EXCO constituted on 30 Dec and agreed that the matter be investigated further. Based on the information in the DoE report, Umalusi decided not to approve the release of Mpumalanga results at its approval meeting of 04 Jan 2010.

Examination irregularities… The Assessment Standards Committee of Umalusi was tasked to do a thorough verification of the Mpumalanga results between 04 and 06 Jan 2010. Method used: comparison of the average performance of schools in 2009 with their average performance in 2008 per subject and based on their raw marks scored in both years. the Standard deviations of these raw marks were also compared as well as the difference between the raw examination mean & the raw SBA mean between 2008 & 2009. Small positive differences in these means from 2008 to 2009 would mean that there were positive interventions. Significant (high) differences would indicate that there were possible irregularities.

Examination irregularities… The investigation showed that most of the differences were negative, indicating that there was a downward trend in the performance of candidates in Mpumalanga. Based on the investigation, the Assessment Standards Committee concluded that their was no indication of any patterns to suggest systemic inflation of results. Umalusi EXCO presented the Umalusi findings to the Minister on the 6th January 2010. Based on this Umalusi Council took a decision to approve release of Mpumalanga results.

Conclusion The findings of the quality assurance processes are a clear indication of a maturing system that has, on the one hand, made positive strides towards improvement in certain areas of assessment and examination, but, on the other hand, still has a few challenges that need to be addressed. The quality assurance of each of these processes presented above was conducted based on Umalusi criteria. Umalusi uses criteria that are subjected to constant review and refinement, to ensure that they are in line with current trends in assessment and examinations.

Conclusion… As a final quality assurance measure, Umalusi moderated the final marks awarded to the candidates. This is done through a rigorous standardization process carried out in line with established principles and procedures. Through this process, Umalusi ensures the consistency of the NSC examination over time and across the provinces. Apart from the statistical inputs presented, Umalusi considered qualitative inputs, as well as very sound educational reasoning to arrive at the 2009 standardization decisions. Umalusi is proud to indicate that in the main, the candidates’ raw marks were accepted. There were very few instances where it was necessary to perform minor adjustments to the candidates’ raw marks.

Conclusion… In general Umalusi is pleased with the manner in which the 2009 NSC examination was administered. Umalusi acknowledges that a number of technical irregularities were reported, but these were addressed in a fitting manner. The few serious irregularities reported were also afforded proper investigation and resolution to ensure that the credibility of the 2009 NSC examination is maintained. Umalusi takes this opportunity to express appreciation to the national & provincial departments of education for their concerted effort in ensuring a credible examination. Umalusi expresses appreciation also to all the relevant stakeholders for the necessary support given in line with Umalusi quality assurance initiatives.

Thank you!