The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century: A Comparative Perspective

Analysis of Variation in Membership Patterns Variation by County in Northern Ireland Variation over Time in Northern Ireland International Patterns (v. Canada, Scotland) Inter-Fraternal Patterns (v. Masons, IOOF) Theories of Change Results of Statistical Analyses (time permitting)

Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

Membership Decline by County, 1961-2001

Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East) Height of the ‘Troubles’ (1969-72) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree However, general trend is a steady decline Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even taking into account population flows.

International Orange Similarities All jurisdictions experience growth until the 1920’s All decline in the Depression years All experience growth after World War II All experience steady decline in recent decades N.I; Scotland 1; Scotland 2 ; Ontario; Newfoundland

International Differences Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Canada and decline in the 1920-39 period is sharper Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

Inter-Fraternal Patterns Masons appear to have outdrawn Orange Order from late forties until late sixties in N.I. And since the 1920’s in Ontario ONT; NI 1 Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2 Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange NI3 IOOF declined in step with Orange in Ontario ONT

Summary Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

Theories of Fraternal Change Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private insurance and expanded recreational options Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII boosted membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline. Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce?), Decline of Loyalty to Crown, Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across County NI: Economic factors not important (1901-71). Denomination key: % RC and %Other Protestant increase membership; %Methodist and % Presbyterian strongly decrease it. SCT: Irish born population of fifty years ago, interacting with Catholic population today. But each on its own is not powerful, both are needed. All other factors pale in comparison. (for 1901-71) ONT: No strong factor - Irish Protestant population most powerful. Proportion Irish, French or Catholic has limited effect. (1911-41)

Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during 1901-71. Orangeism in N.I. Responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970 Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970 High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75 Still more work needed in this and other areas