LÁSZLÓ PITLIK, (HU) – ATTILA SZANYI, (HU) – ERIKA OROSZ, (HU)

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Presentation transcript:

LÁSZLÓ PITLIK, (HU) – ATTILA SZANYI, (HU) – ERIKA OROSZ, (HU) Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment ICT AND FUTUROLOGY IN THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OTKA (T013049) RESEARCH REPORT LÁSZLÓ PITLIK, (HU) – ATTILA SZANYI, (HU) – ERIKA OROSZ, (HU)

INTRODUCTION conventional proceeding of strategy-development  Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment conventional proceeding of strategy-development  essentially subjective phenomenon decision-makers  weights of the attributes used in the analysis of the future; by intuitive feelings, without mathematical control the futurology would be able to estimate only partial points and trends, decision-makers can not be sure, whether the forecasted scenarios are stable enough necessary and possible to develop such methods, which are able to ensure, that the probably “best” future scenario can be identified in frame of a semi-automatic workflow. 2018.09.22.

COMPONENTS OF THE SEMI-AUTOMATIC WORKFLOW Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment COMPONENTS OF THE SEMI-AUTOMATIC WORKFLOW The characteristic components: a multidimensional control system of professional consistency a context-free monitoring of similarity along the space- and time-axels General aspects - OTKA-project. Specialities of the general concept of management issues concerning the external information system in enterprises will be described in the PhD-dissertation. 2018.09.22.

INFORMATION CONTAINTS F THE STUDY Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment INFORMATION CONTAINTS F THE STUDY level: general aspects (cf. philosophical background) 2. level: responsibilities of the CIO (operative task in enterprises and institutions) 3. level: example (strategic planning of the milk production) 2018.09.22.

MATERIAL AND METHODS – 1. Problem descriptions - 1. level Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment MATERIAL AND METHODS – 1. Problem descriptions - 1. level Based on the phenomena of the milk market (cf. 3. level) several rules should be constructed, which make possible to check the consistency starting from a set of single future scenarios. 2018.09.22.

MATERIAL AND METHODS – 2. Problem descriptions - 2. level Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment MATERIAL AND METHODS – 2. Problem descriptions - 2. level On this level should be analysed, which problems the CIO have to solve in order to ensure data assets, applications and network for the analyse in connection to the milk market. 2018.09.22.

MATERIAL AND METHODS – 3. Problem descriptions - 3. level Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Problem descriptions - 3. level Accomplishing a set of COCO-based calculations, which provide forecasts for the milk markets by several countries (5 options) - HU, USA, TUR, CHE, CAN for several time-intervals in future (10 options) by several phenomena (Y: 4 options) production level consumer price producer / consumer support estimate based on (2 options) - full and partial data assets supported by (2 options) - Excel Solver and LPS. 2018.09.22.

DATA ASSETS (example level) Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment These calculations (5*10*4*2*2=800)were started from diverse object-attribute matrix, which includes maximal 26+1 (X+Y) attributes and 18objects. Following attributes are included into the analyzes: 2018.09.22.

METHODOLOGICAL BACKGROUND 1. Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment COCO method (Component-based Object Comparison for Objectivity) 2004 -Pitlik to ensure such kind of context-free similarity analyses, where the role of experts is limited to choose an object attribute-matrix and the base types of ranking for each attributes. calculate “stairs”, which describe, how important is certain options of the selected X-attributes in connection to the Y-variable (e.g. time-, space coordinates, arbitrary phenomenon). objects can be evaluated: equilibrium, over estimated, under-estimated. 2018.09.22.

METHODOLOGICAL BACKGROUND 2. Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Learning phase: In case of primer forecasting topics COCO should bring stairs, which ensure approximate equilibriums. Based on the calculated (objective) stairs scenarios (forecasts) can be simulated for several time-intervals. Initialising (testing) phase: The first estimation should be made in case of years, which Y-values are known, in order to initialise the long time patterns. 2018.09.22.

VISUALISATION Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment COCO let us calculate automatically future-picture with more or less obscure contours. Therefore the real problem can be defined as a fine tuning (focus) of future-pictures. 2018.09.22.

METHODOLOGICAL BACKGROUND 3. Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment SOLVER: A COCO problem can be solved by several techniques: Excel Solver is able to make approximations for non-linear (e.g. quadratic error sum) objective function and limited set of restrictions. LPS: Based on classical linear programming tools COCO problems can be solved by 2 calculations (approximation of zero error in positive and in negative interval). 2018.09.22.

METHODOLOGICAL ACKGROUND 4. Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Roxfort-approximation: It is possible to develop such kind of search techniques, which can ensure to find a correct set of stairs (without LP). Consistency check of future-pictures: After the generation of a big set of primer pixels to the future-picture, which was calculated from diverse angles, it is necessary to select patterns, which are consistent. 2018.09.22.

RESULTS – 3. level Learning phase: almost error-free passed Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment RESULTS – 3. level Learning phase: almost error-free passed Testing phase: flexible, realistic single pattern for the future founded 2018.09.22.

RESULTS – 2. level Operative topics for the strategy-building: Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment RESULTS – 2. level Operative topics for the strategy-building: Behind of the strategy-building it can be identified following steps: generating numerously fragments to future-picture identification of consistent fragments specifying strategic plans based on the (concerning on decision) independent attributes and the objective functions 2018.09.22.

RESULTS – 2. level CIO-topics: Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment RESULTS – 2. level CIO-topics: Macro-level: The leading staff of a sector should have to solve the automatic generation of future-fragments basing on each new data. Mezzo-level: The explored errors and the codes for the improving should be iterative included to the knowledge base of the whole sector in order to provide new automatic procedures and to ensure a potential loss-free knowledge transfer between expert-roles and generations. Micro-level: The enterprises provide not only primer data into this system. They are also responsible for the case-specific interpretation and error-detection as the experts on the mezzo-level. 2018.09.22.

RESULTS – 1. level Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Building of (expert) system for selection of consistent patterns: Based on the known data for 2004 and the expected value for 2005/2006 it can be selected two patterns: pattern_5 and pattern_9. The rule for selection is very simply: such pattern is consistent, where the last known data (2003) is higher as the data for 2004-2006. 2018.09.22.

RESULTS – 1. level Improving instable patterns: Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Improving instable patterns: In case of the so-called wrong pattern can be analysed, whether a smoothing by extreme waves or a shifting with 1 unit bring more harmonised patterns. Through smoothing it can be ensured, that the year-to-year extreme waves (caused by single, extreme stairs) show a solid course. In background of shifting can be searched for effects, which make impossible the direct 2018.09.22.

DISCUSSION Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Thesis 1: Automation of the market analysis is possible from point of view of ICT (- passed) Thesis 2: Direct including of such kind of charts (future pictures) into the strategic planning is possible (- passed) Risk 1: In the management of data assets can not be identified any strategic approach Risk 2: The CIO is working in a misunderstood role (c.f. maintaining of IT or plan of knowledge transfers) Risk 3: The education helps only hardly to include numerously forecasts through automated processes, objective controls and iterative knowledge management into the strategy-building 2018.09.22.

DISCUSSION Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment Neither the EU-constitution nor the IT-infected strategic experts declare clear the real challenges of the information society: no more secrets (each measured facts should be defined as non-profit source, which has to catalyze the intuition of the human each knowledge-form should be transferred to source-code strategy-building means the most realistic future-picture 2018.09.22.

LITERATURE http://miau.gau.hu/miau/91/bulletin_en.doc Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment LITERATURE http://miau.gau.hu/miau/91/bulletin_en.doc http://miau.gau.hu/miau/74/mtn2004_full.doc & http://miau.gau.hu/miau/74/cocomtn.xls http://miau.gau.hu/miau/81/iamo2005_en.doc & http://miau.gau.hu/miau/74/iamo_coco_poster.doc http://miau.gau.hu/miau/71/iamo_coco.doc http://miau.gau.hu/miau/91/gewisola2006_abstract.doc http://miau.gau.hu/miau/73/gewisola_end.doc & http://miau.gau.hu/miau/73/gewisolafulltext.doc http://miau.gau.hu/miau/69/gilfull.doc http://miau.gau.hu/miau/85/gil26_full.doc Konrad Lorenz, 1944-1948: Az orosz kézirat, 4. fejezet, Cartafilus Kiadó, 1998, ISBN 963 85882 0 9 2018.09.22.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! pitlik@miau.gau.hu eorosz@miau.gau.hu Dr. Gyökér Irén - Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! pitlik@miau.gau.hu eorosz@miau.gau.hu 2018.09.22.