Successful Stock Signals

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Presentation transcript:

Successful Stock Signals 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Introduction Presentation of the book “Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers” By Tom Lloyd Sr., author Articles in MarketWatch.com SeekingAlpha.com Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Marc Chaikin “As a strong believer in the importance of combining fundamentals with technical analysis, I was immediately engaged in this book by Tom Lloyd. Successful Stock Signals reads like a trading diary written in the moment. WITH ITS WEALTH OF CHARTS THE READER SEES A CLEAR CUT PATH TO PROFITS. Tom puts you in the driver’s seat as he analyzes stock after stock with the tools he has used successfully in a long Wall Street career. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS IN THE STOCK MARKET, THIS BOOK IS A MUST READ.” 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Jeff Hirsch “I have been following Tom Lloyd’s timely signals for decades. In this treatise Tom Lloyd pulls together a library’s worth of the most effective technical analysis tools and MARKET TIMING TRICKS OF THE TRADE. TRADE LIKE A PRO WITH TOM’S SIGNALS PLAYBOOK.” 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Chip Anderson “Successful Stock Signals quickly focuses in on the key things technical investors need to concentrate on in order to be successful—technical signals that work. UNLIKE MANY OTHER INVESTING BOOKS THAT BEAT AROUND THE BUSH, TOM LLOYD GIVES YOU GREAT, USABLE ADVICE THAT CAN HELP ANYONE FIND GREAT TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN ANY MARKET.” 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Topics of Discussion Integrating technical analysis with fundamentals Use technical analysis as the first step in selecting stocks--trading Use fundamental analysis as the second step--investing This approach keeps you in stocks beating the Index and having good fundamentals Buy & Sell Signals illustrated 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Trading Successful Signals for Traders Candlesticks: Hammer and Hanging Man reversal signals RSI, Relative Strength Index MACD, Mac Dee, Moving Average Convergence Divergence Fast Stochastic Support and Resistance 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Investing Successful Signals for Portfolio Managers 200-day moving average Relative Strength vs. Index The crosses: 50-day X 200-day Know Sure Thing Chaikin Money Flow On-Balance Volume 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Technicals vs. Fundamentals Traders use technicals Portfolio managers use fundamentals Traders look at fundamentals Portfolio managers look at technicals 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers APPLE CONCLUSIONS Excellent example of buy and hold Strong 200-day uptrend Outperforming the Index Every pullback “buy on weakness” Red dots parabolic SAR identifying sellers pulling price back to the 200 Look for change in trend, a change in character. 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers : INVESTING BUY & HOLD USE 200-DAY MA ALLOW FOR MINOR VIOLATIONS 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Google Conclusions Frequent violation of 200 uptrend Good for trading Latest trade from $570 to $690 Starting with Chaikin Money Flow turning green. Buy signals from On-Balance Volume, Accumulation Distribution and Relative Strength vs Index 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

SELLING BUYING : TRADING Google 9/22/2018 NICE TRADE FROM 570 TO 690 ON-BALANCE VOLUME AONACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION RRELATIVE STRENGTH 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals IBM Triple top see (1) on the chart Inverted head/shoulders bottom(2) Double top (3) Break below the 200-day (4) “V” bottom (5) Break above the 200-day (6) Long-term uptrend confirmed (7) 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 7 7 33 1 1 4 7 6 2 5 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Beat the Index IBM 50-yr. turtle beating the Index HPQ 50-yr hare beating the Index IBM “better name” HPQ “better performance” Now does the turtle catch the hare? Picking long-term best performers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers HPQ BEATS IBM 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers HPQ TROUNCES THE INDEX 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals HLF Negative divergences to uptrends RSI dropping from overbought MACD breaks below signal line Double top in place before drop Aroon drops below the signal line Chaikin money flow anemic D1 D2 negative crossover Signals detected short selling 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Successful Signals FB Enormous candlestick sell signal on day one (supply) Downtrend reversal on point & figure chart on day one (supply) Confirming sell signals on day 2, 3 and 7, (supply) Predestined to fall because of IPO errors in pricing and supply The law of supply & demand determines price. Facebook is the poster child. 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals MSFT Double top “W” bottom Bullish rectangle Breakout Long-term flat lined chart No growth for 10 years Can you believe the breakout? 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Shaky Signals LULU Long-term, 5-year, 200-day uptrend with violations. 2- year uptrend with violations Uptrend in Relative Strength with violations On-balance volume and MFI show weakness Chaikin money green 2 years, but sharp drop recently. Bounces after earnings 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers : BEFORE EARNINGS 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals LULU MACD Stochastic RSI Keltner Channels Pivot Point Parabolic SAR Directional Movement D1 D2 Relative Strength MFI On-balance volume 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals Sell GMCR Stochastic sell signal at top MACD sell signal at the top MFI sell signal at the top Keltner sell signal off the top Relative Strength sell signal off top Candlestick sell signals off the top 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals Buy GMCR Bounce Stochastic buy signal off bottom Parabolic SAR buy signal MFI buy signal RSI buy signal Aroon buy signal Relative Strength buy signal Directional Movement buy signal 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals NFLX Top & Bottom Chaikin Money Flow, CMF Moving Average Convergence Divergence, MACD (Mac Dee) Percentage Price Oscillator, PPO Relative Strength OBV, MFI, AD 200 day MA 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals RIMM, BBRY Negative divergences Topping signals Double bottom Dead cat bounce Double top Lower highs and lower lows Breaks bottom 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Buy Signals RIMM dead cat bounce $35 to $86 Stochastic leads at $39 Candlesticks and gap at $50 Major gap at $60 Confirmed by CMF, MACD, Volume, OBV, RSI, D1D2 and Relative Strength. 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers RIMM buy signals for bounce 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals PCLN : Successful Signals PCLN Money flow turns negative MFI shows selling Price breaks below 50 day MA MACD shows sellers Believing signals before earnings Relative Strength shows selling 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

PCLN Negative Earnings Negative surprise in earnings Money flow sell signal was right Weakness in other signals correct Price drops 101 points Relative Strength sell signal appears 200-day sell signal PPO sell signal confirmed 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals LNKD Money flow turns positive at $70 20-day crosses above 50-day MA MACD shows buying MFI turns up OBV turns up AD, Accum/Distr moves up Market turns up Price moves from $70 to $120 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals Long Term, SBUX Monthly chart for long term signals Chaikin money flow shows buy and sell signals MACD histogram leads money flow Double top, Candlestick bottom Stochastic leads MACD buy/sell RSI confirms the Stochastic OBV, RS and +D1-D1 buy/sell 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals CMG MFI sell signal at $442 top Money flow sell at $400 Relative Strength sell at $390 Fibonacci level at $324 fails OBV rolls over and down at $300 Major sell signal $400 to 325 Elliott 5th wave to $233 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Successful Signals GS Long-term downtrend signals RSI and MFI sell the top at $239 Stochastic confirms RSI and MFI OBV identifies the top Same signals identify the bottom Resumption of downtrend after dead cat bounce from $46 to $180 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals GS buy signals Bouncing up from $90 bottom Chaikin money flow turns green Continuous MACD buy cycles Keltner channel turns up Relative Strength turns up Move up hits resistance at $126 Blue arrows show latest bounce up 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals CRM Price violates 200-day 50-day MA comes down to 200 Price recovers above 200-day MA 50-day bounces up from 200 Money flow turns green before eps After eps big white candle closes at 148.54 up 1.77 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals Trading CRM Do you buy on the open? Opens at $148 MACD, RSI, Stochastic buy signals Parabolic SAR buy signal 50-min and 200-min uptrends Price running along the top of the upward Bollinger Band 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

DAY TRADING SALESFORCE.COM MONDAY, 8/27/12 buy 148, sell 152 Buy bottom, sell top Buy bottom, 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Successful Signals HD Breakout buy from $38 to $65 Candlestick signals lead Relative Strength leads +D1-D1 Directional leads Volume/price breakout at $40 Golden cross 50-day X 200-day OBV and ADX confirm Signals remain positive to $65 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals TA+Fundamentals First step: find a good chart Second step: find good fundamentals S&P chart combines both TA and fundamentals Home Depot chart shows earnings, analyst target, star rating plus TA signals Rel.Strength, Moving Avg. 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals WMT Breakout at $55 runs up to $78 Pre-breakout signals: RSI, Candlesticks, Relative Strength, price gap, +D1-D1 Direction, and PPO Concurrent signals: Chaikin money flow, change in trend and ADX TA + Fundamentals agree 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals Short squeeze GMCR positive surprise creates short squeeze Day trading the bounce up from the bottom Big gap up no retracement very bullish Day trading the pullback in Stochastic and MACD 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Gap up from bottom starts squeeze 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals SPY Long-term market signals 20 years SPY surrogate for S&P 500 5 Elliott waves to double top in 2000 at 124.55 or near 1246 S&P 5 Elliott wave to head & shoulders top in 2007 at 141.53 near 1415 Currently in the 5th Elliott wave at 150 or near 1500 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals SPY Long-term 10-year signals Sell signals in 2008 crash Buy signals in 2009 Fed rescue OBV buy signal at bottom at $75 RSI and Stochastic buy at $80 MACD buy at $100 Money flow buy at $100 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals SPY Weekly chart buy/sell signals Buy test of 200-day uptrend Sell the RSI and Stochastic overbought signals 200 and 50-day uptrend Latest Stochastic buy signal Not yet confirmed by MACD buy signal 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals SPY Short term triple top All signals turn negative Start of short term selling cycle MACD, Stochastic RSI and Know Sure Thing are leading signals to drop in price Buy signals on the bounce back up 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals SPY Day Trading A) lead to MACD buy signal B) RSI leads the MACD buy C) Stochastic leads the MACD buy D & E) Candlestick lead to MACD E,F,G,H &I Leading indicators J) Lagging indicator (valuable too) Sell signals just the reverse 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

Successful Signals Summary Charts are 100% accurate in signaling changes in supply and demand. No one should be surprised where price is going, signals tell you that. Fundamentals are only one factor creating supply and demand For traders,signals of supply/demand are more important than fundamentals For portfolio managers fundamentals are the factor for determining price targets. 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers

for traders and portfolio managers Conclusions For traders, use leading indicators to identify supply and demand ahead of the crowd and high frequency traders. For portfolio managers use leading indicators of Relative Strength so stocks outperform the benchmarks. Use TA and then Fundamentals Pick good charts check for good fundamentals. Avoids value traps. Keeps portfolio in outperforming stocks. 9/22/2018 for traders and portfolio managers