Abandoned Agriculture: Land Use Analysis and Data (Photo: Nobel) Abandoned Agriculture: Land Use Analysis and Data Elliott Campbell, David Lobell, Chris Field EBI Workshop on Crop Modeling and Land Use October 9, 2008

Overview Global Abandoned Agriculture (Campbell et al., 2008) U.S. County Abandoned Agriculture (In Prep) CRP Land Use Change (In Prep) Yields Preview Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

Biofuels and Land Use Croplands Forest Lands Alternative Lands (Fargione et al., 2008) Croplands Forest Lands Alternative Lands Ag David Tilman’s group shows considered production on managed grassland plots Tilman’s study sited Our approach has been to identify a climate protective domain for bioenergy. That is a way to spatially distribute the agriculture for biooenergy so that it does not disturb large pools of carbon in the forests while also not influencing Arable: food impact Forest: ecosystem emission impact Marginal Ag: food impact Degraded forest: opportunity cost of reforestation, past order of magnitude estimates of 500 Mha, mainly in tropics Degraded and Abandoned: Closest estimate of area is Soil Degradation map from 1990 based on expert opinion. 900 Mha World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation. An Explanatory Note (Global Assessment of Soil Degradation GLASOD) Biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) : Research Priorities for Marginal Lands http://www.fao.org/wairdocs/TAC/X5784E/x5784e05.htm#chapter%202%20%20%20definitions%20and%20context How much of the land is really available – Climate protective – Not needed for something else • How productive is the available land? – Yield trends – Record yields – Field trials – Natural NPP • What is the domain that is climate protective? Is this a climate protective domain? Not sure… need to apply earth systems models to this land area. As a first step need to know where these lands are and how much bioenergy they could produce. As a subsequent step need to integrate these landuse change scenarios on these lands with carbon and climate models.

Previous Estimates Ramankutty and Foley, 1999 210 Mha abandoned cropland No consideration of present land cover or pasture Abandoned ag applied in global biofuels assessments (Tilman et al., 2006; Hoogwijk et al., 2003) Houghton, 1999 500 Mha degraded lands Tropical deforestation in Africa, Asia, Latin America Hall, 1994 758 Mha degraded lands Tropical deforestation and fallow cycle of shifting cultivation Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

Quantifying Abandoned Agriculture 1700 1710 1720 1) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands. Here we present a new spatially explicit estimate of the global area of abandoned agriculture and the plant production on these lands using historical land use data, satellite-derived land cover, and global ecosystem modeling. We considered abandoned agriculture as land that was previously used for crop or pasture but is now abandoned to these uses and has not been converted to forest or urban areas. We used historical land use data from the History Database of the Global Environment 3.0 (HYDE)10 which consists of a time series of global maps of permanent crop and permanent pasture for each decade between 1700 and 2000. Shifting agriculture, which also contributes to abandoned agriculture lands18, is not included in these maps. For comparison with this HYDE-based analysis, we considered areas of abandoned crop from the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) land use database (0.5 degree resolution)11,26. In order to exclude forest and urban areas we used a MODIS satellite map of the current forest and urban land cover (3 minute resolution, MODIS/Terra Land Cover Types MOD12C1)12. Spatial analysis between HYDE and MODIS data should introduce uncertainty due to the different methods used in the creation of these data. We developed a high estimate for the potential plant production on abandoned lands using natural plant production from the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (1 degree resolution)13. At the global scale, primary production on agricultural lands, determined from harvest statistics, is about 65% of the modeled production from natural vegetation on the same lands27. Estimating biomass yield as the potential primary production of the natural vegetation on a site reflects local constraints from climate. It also allows that total plant production from biomass agriculture may be significantly higher than that for current agriculture, at the global scale. Our production estimates do not account for degradation on the available lands, which could decrease yields, or for irrigation, which could increase them.

Agriculture Land Use Data HYDE (Goldewijk et al., 2007) 5 minute resolution Decade time step, 1700-2000 Crop Area Pasture Area SAGE (Ramankutty and Foley, 1999) Decade time step, 1700-1992 Crop Yields Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

Cropland Time Series: Global NPP is total (above-ground + below-ground) Global terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. In principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy the majority of global energy needs.

Cropland Time Series: U.S. NPP is total (above-ground + below-ground) Global terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. In principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy the majority of global energy needs.

Land Use Analysis Crop-to-pasture and Pasture-to-crop transitions not explicit Two approaches 1. Aggregate Approach Abandoned ≤ Max(Pre-2000 Area) – Current Area if Max(Pre-2000 Area) – Current Area > 0 Abandoned + Current ≤ Total Grid Cell 2. Time Series Approach Abandoned = Areat+1 - Areat , if Areat+1 - Areat > 0 If crop increment > 0 and pasture increment < 0 modify abandoned ag increment (and vice-versa) Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

Area of Abandoned Agriculture Based on the HYDE data we found that 269 Mha of crop lands have been permanently converted to land uses other than cropping (Fig. 1b), while 479 Mha of pasture lands have been converted to land uses other than pasture (Fig. 1c) at some point in the last 300 years. This HYDE-based abandoned crop area is somewhat higher than the 210 Mha of abandoned crop area from the SAGE crop data (Fig. 1a)11. The abandoned crop areas from HYDE and SAGE data had the highest concentrations over the Eastern U.S. as a result of the relocation of cropland from the eastern to the Midwestern region of North America. The most extensive area of abandoned pasture was over the Midwestern region of North America where HYDE data indicates that cropland has replaced pasture land. High concentrations of pasture abandonment also were found in Australia where pasture areas peaked in the mid-1970’s and have steadily declined. We estimate that the total abandoned agriculture (crop and pasture) ranges from 474 Mha to 579 Mha globally. These estimates exclude abandoned agriculture areas arising from the conversion of crop to pasture or pasture to crop. These estimates do not exclude abandoned areas arising from agriculture to forest or agriculture to urban transitions. In order to exclude forest and urban areas we used a MODIS satellite map of the current forest and urban land cover (3 minute resolution, MODIS/Terra Land Cover Types MOD12C1)12. Our estimate of abandoned agriculture that excludes forest and urban areas is 377 Mha to 472 Mha (Fig 1d). summed to 66% to 110% of the range of areas assumed in previous bioenergy assessments Spatial analysis between HYDE and MODIS data should introduce uncertainty due to the different methods used in the creation of these data. For example, HYDE agriculture areas were spatially distributed by human population at the sub-administrative level. Since the HYDE spatial distribution may be biased towards urban areas, the exclusion of MODIS urban areas may overcorrect our abandoned area estimate. However, the abandoned agriculture areas were only reduced by 3% using the MODIS urban areas. Our application of the MODIS forest map appears to have correctly excluded forest regrowth in the eastern U.S. where abandoned agriculture has transitioned to secondary forests28. (Campbell et al., 2008)

Categories of Abandoned Agriculture Land Cover Area (Mha) Average NPP (ton ha-1 y-1) Total NPP (billion ton y-1) Urban 17 - 18 5.4 - 5.5 0.5 - 0.6 Forest 71 - 89 6.9 - 7.1 0.09 - 0.1 Savannah, Grassland, Shrubland 385 - 472 3.6 - 4.0 1.5 - 2.1 Lower than Miscanthus on prime land up to 50 ton/ha/y About the same as Tilman’s 3.6 ton/ha/y

Potential Bioenergy from Abandoned Agriculture The energy content of potential biomass grown on these abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the fossil energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current fossil fuel demand is low. Using the global distribution of potential plant production (Fig. 2a) we found that the abandoned agriculture lands could produce between 1.5 and 2.1 billion tons of aboveground biomass (AGB) per year. Potential production rates on abandoned lands are highest in regions of tropical grasslands, ranging from 7 to 20 tons AGB ha-1 y-1. Globally, the area weighted average of the production rates on abandoned lands was 4.2 tons AGB ha-1 y-1. The energy content of 1.5 to 2.1 billion tons of dry biomass is 30 to 41 EJ or 6% to 8% of primary energy demand. Converting this biomass to liquid fuels, using existing or emerging technologies, would cut the available energy to less than half this amount9. At the national scale, the bioenergy potential was largest in the U.S., Brazil and Australia, where the available areas were the most extensive (Fig. 2b). The national bioenergy potential was less than 10% of primary energy demand for most countries in North America, Europe, and Asia while it represents many times the current energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current fossil fuel demand is low (Fig. 1c). (Campbell et al., 2008)

Data Availability HYDE Crop and Pasture Areas http://www.mnp.nl/en/themasites/hyde/ SAGE Cropland http://www.sage.wisc.edu/ Abandoned Agriculture http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/AbandonedAgArchive/ The energy content of potential biomass grown on these abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the fossil energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current fossil fuel demand is low. Using the global distribution of potential plant production (Fig. 2a) we found that the abandoned agriculture lands could produce between 1.5 and 2.1 billion tons of aboveground biomass (AGB) per year. Potential production rates on abandoned lands are highest in regions of tropical grasslands, ranging from 7 to 20 tons AGB ha-1 y-1. Globally, the area weighted average of the production rates on abandoned lands was 4.2 tons AGB ha-1 y-1. The energy content of 1.5 to 2.1 billion tons of dry biomass is 30 to 41 EJ or 6% to 8% of primary energy demand. Converting this biomass to liquid fuels, using existing or emerging technologies, would cut the available energy to less than half this amount9. At the national scale, the bioenergy potential was largest in the U.S., Brazil and Australia, where the available areas were the most extensive (Fig. 2b). The national bioenergy potential was less than 10% of primary energy demand for most countries in North America, Europe, and Asia while it represents many times the current energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current fossil fuel demand is low (Fig. 1c).

Caveats Some lands perceived to be abandoned are used by the poor (Cotula et al., 2008) Biomass density Some areas not included in this analysis: Shifting agriculture (Hurtt et al., 2006) Degraded/abandoned lands not associated with agriculture (Houghton, 1999) Marginal lands… food price impacts? CRP Coarse Spatial Resolution Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

County-Level Abandoned Ag Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions - (Waisanen and Bliss, 2002)

CRP Availability Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

Yield Preview NPP model inter-comparison Compare county-level yields and land use trends Experimental trials Atmospheric NPP tracer (Campbell et al., Science, In Revision) Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -

Summary Gridded geospatial data available now for pasture, crop, and abandoned agriculture U.S. county-level and other marginal land areas coming soon Multiple approaches to assessing yields needed Global, terrestrial annual plant growth is more than five times the approximately 8 billion tons of carbon released to the atmosphere in fossil fuel combustion. At least in principle, diverting a small fraction of total plant growth into biomass energy could satisfy a majority of global energy needs. Biofuels have been considered to be the most promising and most environmentally destructive energy sources are among the most promising, most hyped, and most heavily subsidized renewable energy source. 1 biofuels work with chris and david 2 lands vs. refineries 3 first year at agu: water pollution from corn ethan prod, next year look forward to more Trans- emerging research because of rapid growth of biofuels indus B44B  MW:2008   Thursday Including Land Use and Land Cover Change in Earth System Models III Presiding: E Verbeeten, Center for International Forestry Research; C B Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; J E Campbell, Carnegie Institution of Washington Thanks you all for coming. I’m going to present results from the bioenergy research I have worked on with Chris Field, David Lobell, and Rob Genova. Our rational is that the climate change consequences from bioenergy are strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of the bioenergy agriculture. The location of bioenergy agriculture will determine the yields of the feedstock, disruption of ecosystem carbon pools, changes in albedo from natural vegetation to the bioenergy agriculture, changes in regional climate, and other factors that determine the net climate consequences of bioenergy. Certainly the conversion technologies used in bioenergy refineries are important as well. And there has been a great deal of research related to the processes in the refineries. However there has been considerably less research on the processes in the fields. This broader environmental assessment of the impacts and benefits of bioenergy will be addressed at the AGU Fall Meeting next week. The biogeosciences section hosts a number of presentations on bioenergy next Thursday where I will be presenting as well. This may be the first time that the AGU community has had a substantial showing of . Partly because Chris and I recruited but also because there are a number of emerging research programs in this community in response to the rapid growth of bioenergy agriculture. climate impacts of new investments in biomass energy as strongly dependent on the locations and conditions of field deployment net carbon emissions or net climate forcing, of any biomass agriculture deployment Transition from ag (previous talks) to biofuels (subsequent talks) My background is in using data assimilation techniques to integrate airborne observations, atmospheric transport models, and land surface models. But its quickly becoming appartent that the data assimillation approach would greatly benefit from understanding land use and land use change. Transition to next slide: this may be the first year with a substantial. Posters in biofuels focus at AGU. Thursday morning poster session that combine landuse related to bioenergy agriculture with models of water quality, soil carbon, and primary production. Context of session: need to know where biofuels could be in order to run the earth system models to see environmental effect Roadmap In past biofuels been studied to better understand emissions during combustion (David Streets ORNL, Tami Bond UI Urbana-Champaign). Several of the talks you will here in this session will consider the effect of land use change and implications for earth systems modeling Links to other talks: Foley: SAGE data, expanding role of ag UCSC: new intensive agriculture for bioenergy on marginal lands could lead to erosion and potential for dust storms. Evidence that land has been taken out of CRP and put into corn. Argentina example. Intro Thank you for coming. Globally, the interest in bioenergy (such as corn ethanol in the US) is surging. Its becoming clear that biofuels will this will be a part of our energy future. What’s unclear is whether Research for the development of sustainable bioenergy systems. There are a wide variety of bioenergy resources that range from switchgrass shown in this picture which could be used to make ethanol or burned for heat and electcitiy, or methane captured from landfills, or fuelwood for residential cooking and heating. In the last few years there has been a renewed interest in rapidly expanding the use of bioenergy resources in the US and globally. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential advantages to -to decrease net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere, -to protect soil and water resources -to heighten energy security in regions without abundant energy resources, - and to strengthen agrarian economies. This growth of bioenergy resources has the potential impacts of - to increase net emissions of GHG’s into the atmosphere -to degrade soil and water resources -to decerase food security to people who are undernourished -and to lose natural habitats Given the surging interest in bioenergy and the complex mixture of benefits and impacts to bioenergy I think its crutial that we vigorously apply science and engineeing to inform a rational development of the biomass energy industry. Trans: Today I’m going to tell you about three emerging areas of research that will adderss the need for sustainable bioenergy… 1 int 2 eco 3 fossil fuel Ecosystem Dynamics Connection to Bioenergy Prefecase… most people are familiar with Alex Farrel’s Science paper that synthesized data from a number of life-cycle studies to conclude that corn ethanol would decrease net GHG emissions relative to fossil fuels by about 20%. Most people don’t remember from this study is that the uncertainty was 35 1. uses ecosystem and ag models which are critical to getting the plant production which is critical to balance. These models predict plant prod by extrrapolating from plant and field level measurements. We need a regional measurement of plant prod that can validate the underlying model processes to see if in fact they are working. And thins brings us to 2 2. Land use conversion will effect the terrestrial carbon sink… 40% story. Fossil Fuel Baseline Connection to Bioenergy Evaluate Bioenergy Against Fossil Fuels. Know fossil fuels at global but at regional scale not known. Many of the ecosystem dynamics sutdies involve the use of atmsopheric measurement to infer info about plant production. Measure CO2 or COS in atmsophere to infer infomration about plant. First need to remove influence of fossil fuels. But how connect 3… -inversion of regional emissions -