Addressing Conservation Issues Using IMBCR Data and Results Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory Nick Van Lanen, Biologist

Addressing Conservation Issues Using IMBCR Data and Results Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory Nick Van Lanen, Biologist

NABCI Conservation Objectives Determine status and trends Inform management and policies to achieve conservation Determine causes of population change Evaluate conservation efforts Set population objectives and priorities Inform conservation design

Determine Status and Trends: Available Estimates Density Estimates Occupancy Estimates We use these two important metrics

Determine Status and Trends: Interpreting precision 90% CI = interval with 90% chance to contain mean 90% CI that doesn’t contain another point estimate indicates “difference” SE = Standard Error Standard error intervals that don’t overlap indicate “difference” %CV = Percent coefficient of variation: (standard error / estimate) X 100

Determine Status and Trends: What precision is reliable? Is sampling intensity sufficient for your needs? %CV of < 10% can detect 25% population change over 10 years %CV of < 20% are generally reliable %CV < 40% can detect 3% population change over 25 years with 80% power Safe to say estimates with %CV > 100% have substantial uncertainty %CV is shown in both occupancy and density tables

Determine Status and Trends: What influences precision? Precision is generally impacted by: Sampling intensity Particularly low n in big strata/superstrata # of detections within strata/superstrata # of detections throughout IMBCR/BCR and fit of detection curve to data Minimal impact Occupancy precision behaves differently Quadratic curve SE Psi

Determine Status and Trends: Compare Estimates Across Time Need for trend information has been conveyed Requires quite a few years of data Poor %CV will result in no findings (be aware of sample sizes, past and future) Internal and external discussions on analytical approach to be used Coming in the future 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Determine Status and Trends: Compare Estimates Across Time LARB Density: WY-BCR18 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Inform Management and Policies: Comparing Estimates Across Space 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Inform Management and Policies: Can use estimates as triggers for management action ARIM: changes in Psi over time without similar changes throughout the region Particular suite of obligate species chosen Density could be used just as easily 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Inform Management and Policies: Habitat Modeling Identifying thresholds Can determine what actions are needed to alter habitat to support species Sagebrush Sparrow Brewer’s Sparrow 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Inform Management and Policies: Mapping strata-level estimates Can help map management responsibility

Inform Management and Policies: Predictive density mapping “Set spatially explicit management and conservation priorities” Identify areas for conservation Identifying areas for habitat enhancement projects Steering disturbance towards less sensitive areas

Inform Management and Policies: Predictive occupancy mapping Not necessarily relegated to single spp! Also can be done w/ combining densities.

Inform Management and Policies: Determining Richness

Inform Management and Policies: Determining Richness (using Psi)

Inform Management and Policies: Determining Richness (using Psi) Easily done for species for which we produce occupancy estimates (not full richness) Sum Psi values Square SE’s for each Psi value (variance) Sum the variances Take square root of variance (SE of richness) Multiply SE (richness) by 1.645 (Margin of Error) Add and subtract Margin of Error from point estimate to produce 90% CI

Determine Causes of Population Change: Investigating correlations with process variables

Determine Causes of Population Change: Investigating correlations with process variables

Determine Causes of Population Change: Investigating correlations with process variables

Evaluate Conservation Efforts: Estimating Changes in Population Size Can be used to demonstrate effectiveness of management actions Maintain momentum for enhancement projects and management actions Joint Ventures are interested in documenting the #’s of birds impacted This information can inform JV Databases (e.g., HABS, HABSPOP) 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Evaluate Conservation Efforts: What if scenarios 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database Area occupied is valid metric

Evaluate Conservation Efforts: Compare Estimates Across Treatments Example: UT Dolores and Colorado River Tamarisk Removal Treatments Species Control Treatment LCL_D UCL_D LASP 1.75 9.82 10.53 32.58 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Evaluate Conservation Efforts: Overlay Projects Overlays are ideally suited to test efficacy of habitat management projects

Set Population Objectives & Management Priorities: Predictive occupancy & density mapping 4 Goals: Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation. Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs maintain data in high quality Database

Inform Conservation Design: Informing staff of IMBCR & uses Rocky Mountain Avian Data Center Specialized queries available User’s guide exists Recorded demonstrations available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rPoPfzuwoQ User’s guide to IMBCR program and products coming soon for USFS Likely applicable to other partners as well

Summary Status and Trends Density and occupancy estimates Think about sample sizes and look at %CV Are you getting the precision you want? Compare estimates across time

Summary Informing Management & Policies Compare estimates across space Use estimates as triggers for management action Habitat modeling - where to work and what to do Map strata-level estimates - quick spatial context Predictive distribution maps Compute species richness - metric to guide action

Summary Determine Causes of Population Change Relatively little application of IMBCR program thus far Investigating correlates for process variables can be informative Evaluate Conservation Efforts Models can estimate change in population or occupied area Measure success Compare estimates across treatments Modeling allows for “what if” scenarios

Summary Set population objectives & management priorities Use estimates to set population goals Use distribution maps to prioritize management efforts Inform Conservation Design Get the word out to staff Let us know how we can help Trainings, workshops, webinars Testimonials!

Documenting applied use of data Help us sell the program to new partners and maintain support from current partners How are you and your staff using estimates? Please document uses on Griffin Groups

Questions?