DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

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Presentation transcript:

DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

TYPES OF POLITICAL REGIME Democracy Oligarchic Co-optative Liberal (elections with citizen rights) Illiberal (elections w/o citizen rights) Authoritarianism Traditional (“man on horseback”) One-party rule Bureaucratic (B-A regimes) Revolutionary

CHANGE OVER TIME Oligarchic Rule and Top-down Reform (1880s-1920s) Military strongmen “Oligarchic democracy” Co-optative democracy Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s) Populist alliances/corporatist states Women and politics A democratic surge [1940s-70s] Bureaucratic-authoritarian regimes

CHANGE OVER TIME [cont.] The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s) “plantation societies” Cuba, Nicaragua—and others? A Renewal of Democracies (1980s-present) “unsolvable problems” pressure from below ending of Cold War absence of ideology Rise of the “new left”? (1998-present) Politics of protest/use of ballot box Chávez v. Lula prospects?

SOCIAL STRUCTURE Upper Class: Urban (industrialists, bankers) Rural (landowners) Middle Class: Urban (merchants, lawyers, etc.) Rural (small farmers) Popular/Lower Class: Urban (workers) Rural (peasants, campesinos) National Institutions: State (including military) Church External Sector: Economic (investors, merchants) Political (foreign governments)

KEY QUESTIONS What social groups are present? Or missing? What kinds of coalitions are in play? On what basis? What are the lines of social conflict? Vertical or horizontal? Social class or race/ethnicity? Who has political power? How inclusive is the system? Who is denied access?

COMPARING CASES Mexico: Revolution of 1910 + dominant-party system Central America and Caribbean: plantation society, U.S. influence, dictatorship and protest Cuba: plantation society, socialist revolution, resistance to United States Question A: Compare Mexican and Cuban revolutions Question B: Trace colonial legacies in Mexico and Cuba Question C (for later reference): Why not more revolutionary ferment in CA + Caribbean? Given strong resemblance to Cuba?

COMPARING REVOLUTIONS Mexico (pre-1910) Alliance: landowners + foreigners + state = “integrating dictatorship” of Porfirio Díaz (1876-1910) Peasants > working class Weak middle class Mexico (post-1930s) Alliance: workers + peasants + state = populist authoritarian regime Demise of landowning class Inclusion of industrialists + foreign + state = pro-developmental policies Electoral democracy (2000-present)

COMPARING REVOLUTIONS Cuba (pre-1959) Plantation society = Alliance: state + foreign + landowners = personalistic dictatorship tied to U.S. interests Need for seasonal rural labor Workers and peasants linked but excluded from politics, thus revolutionary “mentality” Military corrupt, weak Cuba (post-1959) Revolutionary state in command of workers, peasants, urban and rural middle classes Strong military and autonomous state apparatus Dependence on foreign protector (USSR)